AHC: Reverse fates: Saudi Arabia and Iran

How can we reverse the fates of Saudi Arabia and Iran? Have Saudi Arabia be a rogue state, commonly critcized for its human right abuses (by politicians, not just NGOs), considered to be a pariah state allied with countries like North Korea, Venezuela, Burma, and Ghadaffiist Libya, a country commonly thought to be pursuing nuclear weapons. Perhaps King Abdullah makes a statement about "wiping Israel off the map Meanwhile, have Iran be a US ally in certain times, but having its own agenda at others. Have Iran be in favor of preserving Israel, and have them let US troops be stationed along the coast. What might cause this situation? How ight this effect the Middle east? How might radical islam be effected if it's biggest supporter is a pariah state with little to tie it to the interests of the west?
 
Another question is how would this affect oil? Saudi Arabia is the big dog in OPEC, and if they were an enemy of the US for the past 40 years maybe there would have already been more domestic drilling by now. Perhaps the electric, or at least hybrid car would be more common. Higher gas prices?
 
How can we reverse the fates of Saudi Arabia and Iran? Have Saudi Arabia be a rogue state, commonly critcized for its human right abuses (by politicians, not just NGOs), considered to be a pariah state allied with countries like North Korea, Venezuela, Burma, and Ghadaffiist Libya, a country commonly thought to be pursuing nuclear weapons. Perhaps King Abdullah makes a statement about "wiping Israel off the map Meanwhile, have Iran be a US ally in certain times, but having its own agenda at others. Have Iran be in favor of preserving Israel, and have them let US troops be stationed along the coast. What might cause this situation? How ight this effect the Middle east? How might radical islam be effected if it's biggest supporter is a pariah state with little to tie it to the interests of the west?

Iran: Operation Ajax is never carried out, instead an understanding is found with Mohammad Mosaddegh.
Saudi Arabia: This can happen anytime (even in OTL) when the current regime is removed by force, i.e. revolution.
Radical Islam would not really be effected as it comes/came out of Saudi Arabia.

It would make oil a very, very valuable commodity, but I doubt that Saudi Arabia would remain a whole country. The CIA would see that a balkanisation takes place and secures the West the richest oil fields.
 
The CIA isn't god, you know. Its track record is actually to screw the pooch on stuff like this, at least long-term.


Arming a bunch of tribes and make them fight over a few sandhills is something that even the CIA can manage.
That this, in the long run, turn against the West is only to be expected, (as happened in OTL) but that's another timeline.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Arming a bunch of tribes and make them fight over a few sandhills is something that even the CIA can manage.
That this, in the long run, turn against the West is only to be expected, (as happened in OTL) but that's another timeline.
Fair enough. I could potentially see the US supporting some Najd-based rival state.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Najd is the Saudi heartland. Perhaps you mean al-Haasa? Or Ajid, or Hedjaz?
No, I meant Najd. Which part of the country are the anti-Islamists going to try to keep out of the revolutionaries' camp? The oil-rich, House of Saud-loyal heartland or the more volatile but less important Hejaz?

That being said, "Najd" just seems to be the term for east Arabia in general whereas I assume the client would be more focused in the Eastern Provice. Is that the al-Haasa area?
 
No, I meant Najd. Which part of the country are the anti-Islamists going to try to keep out of the revolutionaries' camp? The oil-rich, House of Saud-loyal heartland or the more volatile but less important Hejaz?

That being said, "Najd" just seems to be the term for east Arabia in general whereas I assume the client would be more focused in the Eastern Provice. Is that the al-Haasa area?
Hasa is the east, Najd is the center. Confusing this is that the Saudi Kingdom of Najd consisted of both traditional Najd and Hasa.
The West won't want the Islamists to get oil-rich Hasa (and neither will the Shia there). Najd has so little people it's going to fall to one side or the other, but since it's desert it's not very useful. The Islamists probably end up holding Najd + the Hejaz as an Islamic Emirate of Arabia or something, which will piss off the Muslim world.
 
No, I meant Najd. Which part of the country are the anti-Islamists going to try to keep out of the revolutionaries' camp? The oil-rich, House of Saud-loyal heartland or the more volatile but less important Hejaz?

That being said, "Najd" just seems to be the term for east Arabia in general whereas I assume the client would be more focused in the Eastern Provice. Is that the al-Haasa area?

That's the al-Haasa area yes. It's just that without Najd I would argue it becomes 'Islamist Hedjaz' rather than anything that can be called an alternate Saudi Arabia.
 
Arming a bunch of tribes and make them fight over a few sandhills is something that even the CIA can manage.
That this, in the long run, turn against the West is only to be expected, (as happened in OTL) but that's another timeline.

The loyalty of Arab tribes to the Al-Sauds are deeply rooted. I can't imagine what would be the selling point of the CIA to these tribes to go against their king, when they are all benefiting from the piece of the oil pie?
 
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