AHC Refuge of Napoleon III and the Bonapartes

While close to death, I was wondering if it would be possible to get Napoleon III and loyalist followers after his deposal in France, to seek a refuge in a French colonial holding, and declare independence.

Is this possible, or is it ASB? I was mainly thinking of two options. 1 being Napoleon III goes to French Indochina with his followers, and try to declare independence during the chaos of the French commune. My second is Napoleon III tries to do the same but in Algeria.


So, is it ASB?
 
Yes they were forbiden from setting foot on any french soil even colonial holdings so they can't gather support inside the country.

Instead of Going to England after exile, he instead gathers a following of all Bonapartist's and Monarchists to band together, and possibly sponsored by a few great powers, send Napoleon III to a French colony to try a coup. It could succeed, considering the French commune chaos would make a response impossible for a month or two.
 
Instead of Going to England after exile, he instead gathers a following of all Bonapartist's and Monarchists to band together, and possibly sponsored by a few great powers, send Napoleon III to a French colony to try a coup. It could succeed, considering the French commune chaos would make a response impossible for a month or two.

Why do this though? Your legitimacy isen't exactly improved by abandoning your nation with a large armed force and wae chest during its hour of need with the Reds running amuck.
 
I can't imagine the man who just led France into one of its greatest defeats form his own rump state. Even if he puts the necessary people into the right colony, the Third Republic would unceremoniously invade and exile Nappy III again.
 
I can't imagine the man who just led France into one of its greatest defeats form his own rump state. Even if he puts the necessary people into the right colony, the Third Republic would unceremoniously invade and exile Nappy III again.

Not if it get's secret foreign aid. I could see Britain, Austria-Hungary, and most probable, Germany giving aid to Napoleon III.
 
Why do this though? Your legitimacy isen't exactly improved by abandoning your nation with a large armed force and wae chest during its hour of need with the Reds running amuck.

I wasn't sure, but I think he may do so if he and his followers think that France is a lost cause and that establishing a monarchist sanctuary, and a possible safe haven for a restoration of the throne at a better timing would be the better option.
 
I wasn't sure, but I think he may do so if he and his followers think that France is a lost cause and that establishing a monarchist sanctuary, and a possible safe haven for a restoration of the throne at a better timing would be the better option.

Without even trying to match on Paris? I can't think of any better way he might redeem himself in the eyes of the population than by liberating Paris from the red menese and no better way to lose his remaing good will than fleeing the Fatherland without a fight. While it's certainly get him sanctuary, I think Nappy is smart enough to realize he's losing any chance to get the throne restored by running
 
Without even trying to match on Paris? I can't think of any better way he might redeem himself in the eyes of the population than by liberating Paris from the red menese and no better way to lose his remaing good will than fleeing the Fatherland without a fight. While it's certainly get him sanctuary, I think Nappy is smart enough to realize he's losing any chance to get the throne restored by running

Then what if he has an attempt to bring himself back on the throne, but it fails, and he decides going to seek a monarchist sanctuary is the next best option?
 
Then what if he has an attempt to bring himself back on the throne, but it fails, and he decides going to seek a monarchist sanctuary is the next best option?

Then he lasts up to the point France proper gets back in order, at which point the Third Republic tells the rest of the world to pick a side to recognize and Nappy funds his patronage dry up.
 
Then he lasts up to the point France proper gets back in order, at which point the Third Republic tells the rest of the world to pick a side to recognize and Nappy funds his patronage dry up.

If they say "pick a side" I know Germany will pick Napoleon III's side.
 
If they say "pick a side" I know Germany will pick Napoleon III's side.

And lose their commercial relationship with France and any ability to conduct diplomacy with them on a formal level as well as isolating themselves from the rest of the international community? There's a reason pretty much everybody recognizes the PRC rather than Taiwan as the legitimate government of China; the same factors would kick in here.
 
And lose their commercial relationship with France and any ability to conduct diplomacy with them on a formal level as well as isolating themselves from the rest of the international community? There's a reason pretty much everybody recognizes the PRC rather than Taiwan as the legitimate government of China; the same factors would kick in here.

So, it's impossible then?
 
So, it's impossible then?

Not impossible. But you'd need to keep a moderate, internationally accepted government out of France by some means or another and end up with the Reds/Commune in power. As far as I can think, this is only really going to happen if Germany stumbles stupidly into some other conflict that requires her to withdraw her military elsewhere in order to keep the newly-formed Empire together in its fragile early state: Russia being the only really viable candidate. Is there any way Alexander II might hit a massive bump with Bismark's Germany rather than reconcile and ally with them?
 
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