AHC: Red Army Faction attack for nukes at Gliessen 1977, worst case?

Curiousone

Banned
So OTL the 'Red Army Faction', a Left-Wing 'urban guerilla'/terrorist group in Western Germany attacked a military base in West Germany in 1977. They tried to sieze or destroy the nuclear weapons on the base. The attack went Fubar against them, their bomb didn't work, several were killed by defending troops.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Army_Faction#List_of_assaults_attributed_to_the_RAF

WI the attack goes differently? How Fubar can it plausibly go for the Americans?
 
It really depends on the type of nuclear weapons. With atom bombs the nuclear material and explosives could be kept apart, hydrogen bombs were one device.

Even with hydrogen bombs though probable the worst you could get would be detonating the conventional explosives and dispersing the radioactive material.
 
Well I'm pretty sure that even if they defeated the guards (ASB) and got to the storage bunkers they'd be locked. In the highly unlikely event that they managed to break through the multiple heavy steel doors and got to the weapons unless they had a nuclear bomb technician (and there weren't any German ones in existence) they couldn't activate it.

So basically it couldn't get that bad though I suppose they could cause more damage and kill more soldiers.
 
got to the weapons unless they had a nuclear bomb technician (and there weren't any German ones in existence) they couldn't activate it.

Even if they had a technician, they kind of still need the PAL codes... which are on the other side of the Atlantic in a American military database somewhere.
 
Even if they had a technician, they kind of still need the PAL codes... which are on the other side of the Atlantic in a American military database somewhere.

Any security system can be broken and I'm sure there are a few people around who could circumvent the PAL system* based on the fact that every system is fallible to the people who built it. But yeah the RAF aren't going to get a working bomb or even close to a working bomb.



*Despite the fact that we know nothing about it.
 
Uh... we do know some things about it.

Well, here's something I would like to know if we know about it.

The PALs on the Minuteman ICBMs were infamously set to all zeroes until 1977 (the same year as this incident - and note this affair was in January). What I've never seen is any information on whether that applies to tactical weapons as well or just the ICBMs. I would like to believe that the Pentagon was more careful with the tacticals, since they're closer to Soviet front lines, but I've never found any mention of it one way or the other. Does anyone know?
 
Well, here's something I would like to know if we know about it.

The PALs on the Minuteman ICBMs were infamously set to all zeroes until 1977 (the same year as this incident - and note this affair was in January). What I've never seen is any information on whether that applies to tactical weapons as well or just the ICBMs. I would like to believe that the Pentagon was more careful with the tacticals, since they're closer to Soviet front lines, but I've never found any mention of it one way or the other. Does anyone know?

But who would ever guess that? If you were trying to hack a nuclear bomb in the 1970s, without any knowledge of nuclear weapons, would you try all zeroes? Maybe too many guesses set the bomb off, or wreck it. Maybe there's a wrong code that does the same thing. You don't know, do you?
 
But who would ever guess that? If you were trying to hack a nuclear bomb in the 1970s, without any knowledge of nuclear weapons, would you try all zeroes? Maybe too many guesses set the bomb off, or wreck it. Maybe there's a wrong code that does the same thing. You don't know, do you?

Supposedly, the locks were kept in the "00000" position by default.

Do we know if the RAF had any idea about the PALs and other safeguards? Was their aim just to embarrass NATO by stealing a nuke, or did they think they could actually use this thing?
 
I would like to believe that the Pentagon was more careful with the tacticals, since they're closer to Soviet front lines,
That may have been a reason to be less safe, actually.

I recently finished Command and Control by Eric Schlosser and according to him the military fought hard against safety devices since they might prevent the weaponss from being used when needed.
 
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I happen to own a book which includes an brief interview with General William Burns, who was Brigade Commander of the 42nd Field Artillery Brigade at the time of the attack (Secrets of the Cold war by Leland C. McCaslin)

The interview focused solely on the incident. He did not go very deep into details and most of the interview is fluff.

Here's the wheat from the chaff

A bomb was set on a fuel storage tank in an attempt to cause either a diversion or a damaging conflagration, the tank was almost empty so the ensuing fire was minor.

There was a brief exchange of small arms fire but no penetration of the depot perimeter (apart from planting the bomb)

The guard detail responded as planned and reinforcements arrived from the 3rd Armored Division well within time limits for response.

No mention is made in the interview of US or RAF wounded or dead

General Burns also claimed in the interview that when several who participated in the attack were later captured they made an unusual claim. The claim was that there apart from the bombing there was no RAF involvement and that any small arms fire was the US shooting at deserters.

This stands in contrast to the wikipedia entry which mentions RAF dead and a repulsed attack on the armory.

It appears to me that the special weapons would have been kept at NATO site 4 in Giessen, which based on the maps and pictures found at this link http://www.pbase.com/202mpco/west_germany&page=1

does not have any fuel tanks present (naturally you would want to keep your fuel tanks away from a restricted area since you would have to routinely access the fuel tanks and you don't want to risk a fire turning into a nuclear disaster) this leads me to believe that the RAF attacked Giessen Depot(a fairly sizable US base) but probably not NATO site 4

I think the most damage the RAF could do without active Soviet or East German assistance would be to lightly damage the bunkers at site 4 and kill some US personnel.
To gain access to site 4 for a brief period would require a much larger RAF, Spetznaz providing back up or massive US incompetence to a level that is at or near ASB.
For example soft buildings instead of bunkers, few guards/guards are all drunk/high/Gomer Pyle level incompetent, no ammunition provided to guards (last one not necessarily ASB)

So you gain access (Not a quick thing, you have to suppress on site security and gain access to a bunker designed to keep people like you out) inside the bunker and have access to some of the Lance missile warheads (assuming you have prevented the guards from disabling them). You can't detonate them as that requires either access to the PAL code or the time and expertise necessary to remove them (tactical weapons had PAL according to these two links http://www.usarmygermany.com/Sont.h...any.com/units/ordnance/USAREUR_59thOrdBde.htm
http://cryptome.org/nuke-fuze.htm).
You don't have time because whats left of site security and everyone at Giessen who can carry a rifle is going to be fighting like devils to at least hold you in place and hopefully retake Site 4.
The QRF is inbound (elements of the 3rd Armored division) bringing MBTs, APCs, infantry and probably indirect fire and attack helicopters and eventually Close air support (given NATO's multinational nature we may see some hot RAF on RAF action:D) The RAF is about to get curb stomped, even if they brought along some Spetznaz support (who hopefully have no way of being identified or this incident might have just started WW3)

While you might try and take a warhead with you when you make a break for it (again assuming you can remove them from there storage containers) they are not that small http://travelphotobase.com/v/USNM/NMQZ115.HTM and you are probably not getting very far.

All in All if you want to heist a nuke, this is not the time or place in history to do so.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
But who would ever guess that? If you were trying to hack a nuclear bomb in the 1970s, without any knowledge of nuclear weapons, would you try all zeroes? Maybe too many guesses set the bomb off, or wreck it. Maybe there's a wrong code that does the same thing. You don't know, do you?

Pretty sure it was widely known in the nuclear circle. The whole point is that the officers in charge knew the code, so they could launch even if command and control was destroyed. So we have many thousand of officers who knew the codes, who probably leaked to many thousand of others. So it would appear easy to write a TL where the terrorist have the code, and easy to write it where they get to the bombs but don't have or can't guess the codes.

I don't believe the "lock bomb after X attempts" was active at this time, but I could be mistaken.
 
So OTL the 'Red Army Faction', a Left-Wing 'urban guerilla'/terrorist group in Western Germany attacked a military base in West Germany in 1977. They tried to sieze or destroy the nuclear weapons on the base. The attack went Fubar against them, their bomb didn't work, several were killed by defending troops.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Army_Faction#List_of_assaults_attributed_to_the_RAF

WI the attack goes differently? How Fubar can it plausibly go for the Americans?


I´m honestly sure that that never happend and that this wiki-entry is simply bullshit. And the book mentioned is bullshit too. The only thing I found about the RAF and Gießen is, that the RAF propably planted a bomb which doesn´t worked on an US-train. The guys who wrote these BS seemed to be under the impression, that the RAF was some west-german Viet Cong. But the RAF had never the manpower to pull such a stunt. At their best time, they had a dotzend members and the members of the RAF at this time are all identified today. No random members, which could die at such a attack and then vanish through a cover-up.
 
I´m honestly sure that that never happend and that this wiki-entry is simply bullshit. And the book mentioned is bullshit too. The only thing I found about the RAF and Gießen is, that the RAF propably planted a bomb which doesn´t worked on an US-train. The guys who wrote these BS seemed to be under the impression, that the RAF was some west-german Viet Cong. But the RAF had never the manpower to pull such a stunt. At their best time, they had a dotzend members and the members of the RAF at this time are all identified today. No random members, which could die at such a attack and then vanish through a cover-up.

The while I will admit the book is mostly an oral history (not always the most reliable of sources) I would hardly call it "bullshit" as it seems to be well written.
Major General William Burns seems to be real
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2005_07-08/Burns
http://www.lschs.org/page.cfm?p=1023

If you want some more sources to validate the event
Here is an official history that references the event
http://www.eur.army.mil/organization/timeline.htm

Here is a 2nd hand conformation from Michael Krepon at arms control Wonk
http://krepon.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/2623/when-terrorists-were-west-germans

Here is an unofficial unit history that mentions a bombing
http://www.pbase.com/image/38474545

Here is an excrept from the book One Point Safe by Leslie and Andrew Cockburn that covers the incident in greater detail
http://www.worldcat.org/wcpa/servlet/DCARead?standardNo=0385485603&standardNoType=1&excerpt=true


So while most of the available sources mention an intense fire fight, an assault on the armory or dead RAF members, They all mention a bomb and it is not hard to imagine a nervous G.I firing and some ensuing empathetic firing from other nervous guards. Naturally in your after action report you would not want to state that your men were firing at nothing, it would not be carrier enhancing.

All the sources that I have found mention that the bomb successfully detonated and that the device was planted on a half-full fuel storage tank. I would be interest In where you found it mentioned that the device failed and was planted on a US-Train

The impression left from the interview with Maj-Gen Burns was that he felt the attackers were incompetent and the official history only calls it a "Failed attack". I have not gotten the impression from anyone that the RAF is anywhere as large or significant as the viet cong.

I will also not that while the RAF does not have a tremendous number of successes, they were still a threat. They nearly managed to kill high ranking US officers twice http://www.nytimes.com/1993/11/25/world/german-guilty-in-79-attack-at-nato-on-alexander-haig.html
http://www.stripes.com/news/baader-meinhof-gang-attacked-u-s-troops-bases-in-1970s-1980s-1.36617
and carried out a number of bombings and attacks that took the lives of US and NATO personnel.

I see nothing in particular about the attempted attack a Giessen that would have been outside of RAF capabilities to attempt, they would certainly fail of course unless they were receiving outside assistance
 
In the ASB chance that the RAF do take a tac nuke I don't think any action to retrieve it would be considered too drastic by both the govts concerned and their populaces. If a city block needs to be levelled and 1000 people killed then I think that's what would happen to get it back.
 

Curiousone

Banned
I happen to own a book which includes an brief interview with General William Burns, who was Brigade Commander of the 42nd Field Artillery Brigade at the time of the attack (Secrets of the Cold war by Leland C. McCaslin)

The interview focused solely on the incident. He did not go very deep into details and most of the interview is fluff.

Here's the wheat from the chaff

A bomb was set on a fuel storage tank in an attempt to cause either a diversion or a damaging conflagration, the tank was almost empty so the ensuing fire was minor.

There was a brief exchange of small arms fire but no penetration of the depot perimeter (apart from planting the bomb)

The guard detail responded as planned and reinforcements arrived from the 3rd Armored Division well within time limits for response.

No mention is made in the interview of US or RAF wounded or dead

General Burns also claimed in the interview that when several who participated in the attack were later captured they made an unusual claim. The claim was that there apart from the bombing there was no RAF involvement and that any small arms fire was the US shooting at deserters.

This stands in contrast to the wikipedia entry which mentions RAF dead and a repulsed attack on the armory.

It appears to me that the special weapons would have been kept at NATO site 4 in Giessen, which based on the maps and pictures found at this link http://www.pbase.com/202mpco/west_germany&page=1

does not have any fuel tanks present (naturally you would want to keep your fuel tanks away from a restricted area since you would have to routinely access the fuel tanks and you don't want to risk a fire turning into a nuclear disaster) this leads me to believe that the RAF attacked Giessen Depot(a fairly sizable US base) but probably not NATO site 4

I think the most damage the RAF could do without active Soviet or East German assistance would be to lightly damage the bunkers at site 4 and kill some US personnel.
To gain access to site 4 for a brief period would require a much larger RAF, Spetznaz providing back up or massive US incompetence to a level that is at or near ASB.
For example soft buildings instead of bunkers, few guards/guards are all drunk/high/Gomer Pyle level incompetent, no ammunition provided to guards (last one not necessarily ASB)

So you gain access (Not a quick thing, you have to suppress on site security and gain access to a bunker designed to keep people like you out) inside the bunker and have access to some of the Lance missile warheads (assuming you have prevented the guards from disabling them). You can't detonate them as that requires either access to the PAL code or the time and expertise necessary to remove them (tactical weapons had PAL according to these two links http://www.usarmygermany.com/Sont.h...any.com/units/ordnance/USAREUR_59thOrdBde.htm
http://cryptome.org/nuke-fuze.htm).
You don't have time because whats left of site security and everyone at Giessen who can carry a rifle is going to be fighting like devils to at least hold you in place and hopefully retake Site 4.
The QRF is inbound (elements of the 3rd Armored division) bringing MBTs, APCs, infantry and probably indirect fire and attack helicopters and eventually Close air support (given NATO's multinational nature we may see some hot RAF on RAF action:D) The RAF is about to get curb stomped, even if they brought along some Spetznaz support (who hopefully have no way of being identified or this incident might have just started WW3)

While you might try and take a warhead with you when you make a break for it (again assuming you can remove them from there storage containers) they are not that small http://travelphotobase.com/v/USNM/NMQZ115.HTM and you are probably not getting very far.

All in All if you want to heist a nuke, this is not the time or place in history to do so.

Hmm one of the entries states their intention as to either take the bombs, or 'disable' them.

If they do somehow manage to get access to the bombs & do something stupid by trying to sabotage them with explosives, how bad a radiological accident could occur? Onsite clean-up? Local evacuation?
 
Hmm one of the entries states their intention as to either take the bombs, or 'disable' them.

If they do somehow manage to get access to the bombs & do something stupid by trying to sabotage them with explosives, how bad a radiological accident could occur? Onsite clean-up? Local evacuation?


Here is a link that will give you a ballpark idea of how many weapons were kept at on of these NATO sites http://www.3ad.com/history/cold.war/nuclear.pages/nuke.vets.pages/nato.storage.sites.htm

Hopefully the bunker would contain most of the fissile material/fallout from a fire or non-nuclear explosion
 
Of course, entering the correct the numerical code merely started the arming process. The RAF would have to do much more then that to set the bomb off.

Yeah, but it means they have at least a theoretical chance of getting it to detonate. There's still the environmental sensors, but I'm not sure what weapons were at this base, so that may or may not be a problem - do we know if there were any SADM's there, for example? A SADM's not much, but it's still a nuclear bomb.

A link posted earlier by ltdanjuly10 mentions that the PAL installation team had two separate members knowing half of the code so that no one on the team would know the full code. That seems to imply that the code was not just all zeroes, but given Pentagon bureaucracy I don't think it's quite impossible they would still send two guys in that case.
 
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