Maybe going off subject a bit here, but I find the idea of Canada without Quebec fascinating. Would Ontario be able to soldier on without Quebec? It would need the US for practical sea-connection now or else stay land locked. I mean there is still Hudson Bay, which I guess could be used for Navy purposes but that is pretty unlikely.
So then there is the question of Western Canada. Will Canada, if it still exists, be able to project enough power on its own to get the western coast. Depends on how the war of 1812 goes. With all the focus on Ontario and very little British access to Ontario, the US would be able to concentrate a lot of its forces in that region all at one time.
Canada without Quebec is a really interesting idea.