AHC: Qing America

Probably only way is that there is succesful revolt against Qing on end of 17th century or during 18th century and Qing court and loyalists decide flee to North America and settle area which not be yet settled by Europeans. Another thing how long it can survive.
 
I have an idea.

Early 16th century: Japan unifies with less suffering and war than it did IOTL, making it open to trade with Europe and exploration. A particularly active shogun's expeditions discover Mexico. In the meantime, the Manchu never come south, a rebel leader taking the throne of China and driving them from their homeland. The clans of the Manchu end up fleeing across the sea into Japan, where the shogun hires them as mercenaries alongside the rest.

With the 1600s coming along, the Japanese establish colonies on the western coast of America, with Manchus and Japanese alike settling in what would have been California. The Aisin Gioro clan in particular establishes itself as a sort of daimyo clan over these overseas regions, secured by marriages between the Tokugawas and the Aisin Gioro.

However, by the 1800s, the motherland and colonies have drifted from each other, and the Aisin Gioro daimyo feels more affinity with the colonials than the motherland. And so the (Insert land name here) Revolution happens, and the Aisin Gioro daimyo becomes its prince.

EDIT: Ah, the PoD should be after Westphalia and when the Qing were all established already. Gods damn it. :p
 
Succesful but bitter war against Russia in the 18th century sees them drive the russians out of eastern siberia and alaska and reluctantly take control of those areas to prevent the russians returning.
Yep, I thought about this and I think the only "plausible" option is a war against the Russians. Qing China was relatively assertive in Sakhalin before the late 18th-century decline, after all.
 
China had repeated problems with its population growing too large to feed, leading to instability, civil war and often dynastic collapse. Perhaps the Qing could start a colony in America to settle some of their excess population in.
 
Perhaps the Qing could start a colony in America to settle some of their excess population in.
Well, that's easier said then done, isn't it?

The Qing actually realized they had issues with overpopulation, which they solved until the 1780s by encouraging massive emigration into sparsely populated mountainous areas within China. But if they do for some reason decide that they need to put their people somewhere else, virtually empty Southeast Asia lies just ahead.
 
Yep, I thought about this and I think the only "plausible" option is a war against the Russians. Qing China was relatively assertive in Sakhalin before the late 18th-century decline, after all.

Pretty much, Alaska is the easy option.

Russia proved that pushing through siberia and into alaska is relatively easy but the Qing were completely uninterested in pushing into what was mostly empty land.

So you need to have them take it for the same reasons they took taiwan, as in an enemy had it and they ended up conquering it despite themselevs just to defeat that enemy (it also helps if that enemy had built up some infratsurtcure themselves so it's less empty).

And russia is right there. China fought them for the Amur region in the seventh century. Defeating them in another longer and more brutal war in the 18th is not impossible and same with taiwan the qing commanders might decide they need to secure thsoe areas to prevent them returning, in which case they start garrisoning siberia and alaska and encouraging immigration to those areas to stop the russians becoming a majority.

A sceanario whee they take non alaskan land is much harder simply because it's so against how they operated and it's very hard to see why they would do it.
 
The reasons the Russians went to Alaska was for the fur trade, settlements were small and incidental to servicing the folks involved in the killing of fur animals, shipping etc. Certainly not for settling croplands or disposing of population. For the Chinese to get a foothold on the west coast they really need to be there before the Spanish get established. If the Chinese settle from British Columbia on south to somewhere north of San Francisco they could hold sway over a fertile region beyond where the Spanish have much presence. Of course they have to get there and establish before the English/Americans get to the west coast, and IMHO as long as the Russians have Alaska and the fur trade they won't be upset at not having the few settlements south of there - especially if they can trade for food and other supplies.

IMHO the problem is what happens in the first half of the 19th century when you had the Americans pushing out to the west coast, California becoming American, and the British also looking at the west coast of BNA. I don't expect the Chinese (unless they go there waaay earlier) having any significant presence east of the coastal mountains or the deserts in the south just across the mountains. The reality is between 1803 (Louisiana Purchase) and 1861 (ACW) China is getting weaker, and further and further behind technologically. There is a practical limit to how many Chinese can be shipped across the Pacific - a much longer voyage than across the Atlantic. There will natural increase and some interbreeding with the Native Americans as most settler societies are short on females, and I expect the Native Americans will either be absorbed or withdraw outside Chinese influence. At some point I can see the USA absorbing the Chinese presence on the western Pacific slopes through a combination of nibbling at the edges with settlers and outright conflicts.
 

Deleted member 94708

Well, that's easier said then done, isn't it?

The Qing actually realized they had issues with overpopulation, which they solved until the 1780s by encouraging massive emigration into sparsely populated mountainous areas within China. But if they do for some reason decide that they need to put their people somewhere else, virtually empty Southeast Asia lies just ahead.

Agreed on the first half; there is no way that a country operating with 17th or 18th century technology could meaningfully dent its population growth by shipping them across either the Atlantic or Pacific, even if it set out to do so as an explicit goal. That possibility wasn't attainable until the 19th century and wasn't implemented to any degree until the Potato Famine. Even then, Ireland's population at the time pales in comparison to that of any one of a dozen of the more densely-populated Chinese provinces, let alone China as a whole. Heck, in 1780 Jiangsu was probably the most overpopulated region in China and it had 32 million people, four times the population of pre-famine Ireland. Liangjiang province, encompassing Anhui, Jiangxi, and Jiangsu, probably had more than 100 million.

Regarding referring to Southeast Asia as "virtually empty", though, is a bit of a stretch; Vietnam has perhaps 10 million people in 1800, Thailand about 5 million. Yes, these don't compare to the densities seen in the Chinese coastal provinces, but given the last several experiences the Chinese had when invading Vietnam, the cost-benefit ratio just doesn't work.

As for the OP, Alaska and the Pacific Northwest are the most likely to be colonized but the Chinese have no overwhelming economic need to do so and lack a strong cultural impetus, so I don't know how much they would devote to such a project even if they inherited them after a much-larger-than-OTL conflict with the Russians that expels them from Siberia. The likelihood of such a conflict is also quite low in my opinion.
 
With SE Asia next door and Russian America barely extant at the best of times, I just don't see a rational reason for the Qing to invest in the incredibly risky venture of a trans-Pacific colony, especially given that they'd need to build a supply line to someplace farther north to best take advantage of the North Pacific gyre (whereas Japan, is, well, right on it)
 
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