Avoid Poltava, or make it a Swedish victory. The main Swedish army with Charles manages to escape back to Sweden while inflicting great losses on the Russians, while the Cossacks are still running around the Ukraine wreaking merry havoc. The war settles into a see-saw in Ingria and Estonia with the Russians not able to kick the Swedes out, but the Swedes don't have enough strength to try to retake the Baltic provinces. The war ends with Sweden retaining Estonia and Livonia, but Russia gains access to the Baltic.