AHC: Prussian ascendence w/o Frederick II

Silesia was just a target of opportunity. Arguably, the conquest didn't do Prussia much good, either, considering the horrific beating it took in the next few decades. It will need some kind of territorial enlargement to count among the truly great powers, but there are other avenues. Personally, I would favour a conquest of Saxony, but that has its own problems. Poland is too powerful and too big to swallow up in the early 18th century, and I can't see Austria or Russia accept a Saxon-style attempt at a Hohenzollern king (though I'd love to read a good TL on the attempt).

The Prussian expansion into northwestern Germany would be politically unrealistic, but definitely something that would be fun to play with. They had Jülich, Kleve and Berg, and some holdings in East Frisia, but the areas between are so thoroughly fragmented that getting hold of any cohesive territory would require either a few centuries' worth of politicking and lucky marriages, or a successful conquest of Mecklenburg, Bremen and Hannover. I can't see that, given who's standing behind Hanover. Big previous PODs required. Perhaps an alt-Prussia that turns into a French client state? The French would be happy to see the Netherlands flanked and England's continental power abrogated. Buit that's going beyond the scope of the thread, I suppose.

The main problem IMO is that a succesful rise out of second-tier position requires ruthlessness and a big political gamble. Frederick II was an utterly amoral man willing to run crazy risks. Would any other kings be? I don't think Henry is that kind of guy.
 
Silesia was just a target of opportunity. Arguably, the conquest didn't do Prussia much good, either, considering the horrific beating it took in the next few decades. It will need some kind of territorial enlargement to count among the truly great powers, but there are other avenues. Personally, I would favour a conquest of Saxony, but that has its own problems. Poland is too powerful and too big to swallow up in the early 18th century, and I can't see Austria or Russia accept a Saxon-style attempt at a Hohenzollern king (though I'd love to read a good TL on the attempt).

At least Prussia had some vague claims on parts of Silesia due to the Austrian rulers' short-sightedness.
BTW, Frederick II agrees that Saxony would be the most valuable acquisition for Brandenburg due to its mineral and manufacturing wealth and the big glacis it would be for Berlin in case of attacks aout of Bohemia.

A dynastic combination of Brandenburg, Prussia and Sweden via marriage between the "great" Elector Frederick William and Eleonora of Sweden is old, but still very interesting. It might lead to a derail of the Hanoverian succession in Great Britain, IIRC, and to a much early acquisition of Holstein and perhaps even Schleswig by Sweden-Brandenburg in the early 1700s.

If the Swedish marriage does not happen: If the posthume son of Stadtholder William II of Orange, is stillborn, then said elector FW has some kind of claim for his children, since his wife Louise Henriette was William II's eldest sister. FW himself was educated in Arnheim and Leyden.
For over two decades this won't matter, because the Dutch Estates general will abaolish the stadtholdership anyway. But the French surprise invasion in 1672 will probably happen anyway, as in OTL FW will be the only ally to help the Dutch, and instead of William III, the panicked Dutch will probably appoint him as stadtholder-general and supreme wartime leader. I don't see Frederick William relinquishing that post after the war concludes.
Of course, in the late 17th century, the Dutch Republic will be very much the dog and Brandenburg the tail. And the Duchy of Prussia will be a flea on the tip of said tail.

The Prussian expansion into northwestern Germany would be politically unrealistic, but definitely something that would be fun to play with. They had Jülich, Kleve and Berg, and some holdings in East Frisia, but the areas between are so thoroughly fragmented that getting hold of any cohesive territory would require either a few centuries' worth of politicking and lucky marriages, or a successful conquest of Mecklenburg, Bremen and Hannover. I can't see that, given who's standing behind Hanover. Big previous PODs required. Perhaps an alt-Prussia that turns into a French client state? The French would be happy to see the Netherlands flanked and England's continental power abrogated. Buit that's going beyond the scope of the thread, I suppose.

The main problem IMO is that a succesful rise out of second-tier position requires ruthlessness and a big political gamble. Frederick II was an utterly amoral man willing to run crazy risks. Would any other kings be? I don't think Henry is that kind of guy.

Ahem. They did not own Jülich and Berg, they only had a claim. Besides Kleve, they owned Mark, Ravensberg-Minden and (after 1702/1707) Lingen-Tecklenburg and (after 1745) East Frisia. All these territories could neatly be connected by secularizing the Bishopric of Münster. No wonder the Cathedral Chapter of Münster always elected Bavarian or Austrian princes ...

To mention Frederick II again: a few years before the Diplomatic Revolution, he advised his successor in his Political Will that there was nothing to gain in an alliance with Austria and little in an alliance with GB, but an alliance with Russia would negate the latter's power to occupy East Prussia at will and might present an opportunity to acquire Polish Royal Prussia piecemeal. (Fun fact: What we call Salamitaktik, slice after slice, he calls à la mode d'artichaut, leaf for leaf).
Meanwhile, there is no rivaly with France and an French alliance would help immensely against an Austrian reconquest of Silesia or British-backed Hanoverian desires in Northern Germany. So he advises to keep good connections with Versailles and Sankt Petersburg.
 
Meanwhile, there is no rivaly with France and an French alliance would help immensely against an Austrian reconquest of Silesia or British-backed Hanoverian desires in Northern Germany. So he advises to keep good connections with Versailles and Sankt Petersburg.

So of course, he manages within a couple of years to get himself into a war with both Russia and France.
 
I guess the starting point for this would have to be - how does the Austrian Succession question go if Prussia doesn't invade Silesia? The Bavarians and the Spanish obviously have designs on Austrian territory, and the Saxons are incredibly opportunistic, but none of them can really do anything about it unless they have French backing. My understanding is that Fleury was mostly just preparing for a campaign to elect Karl Albrecht as Emperor, and not really interested in a major war to dismember Austria. But obviously Belle-Isle and others think differently, and probably would regardless of Prussian actions.

So does Belle-Isle get the upper hand, and assemble a coalition of Bourbons, Wittelsbachs, Wettins, and perhaps Hohenzollerns and Savoys against Maria Theresa? Or does Fleury maintain control and avoid such a conflict? You can perhaps work such a conflict in a way that gains Prussia significant territory, in much the same way that Savoy slowly expanded over the years, or that Prussia did in the century or so prior to Frederick's accession.

I suppose you might also start things earlier. If Queen Anne's son survives, for instance, Hanover is a much riper target for Prussia than OTL.
 
Top