AHC: Prolong WWI
- Thread starter John Fredrick Parker
- Start date
The problem after the USA entry is that the Entente got the proverbial "blood infusion" to keep going.
Before that the CP had the upper hand after they got Russia out of it. But after that, the Blockade got realy effective and the Entente got the fresh meat for the grinder.
Not to mention the industrial ressources they then got for "nothing"...
On the other hand, if you keep the USA out and more or less neutral, then it becomes a race to see who foldes next. Imo the Ottomans or Ital are the biggest candidates followed by France and then A-H.
A-H last, because they are somewhat seccured with Italy limping allong and more manpower preasure on the Anglo-French formations.
So it could go into 19. But 1920 is hard as all sides were exausted. And I do not know how the French would have reacted to the 1918 German offensives without American manpower arriving. They had OTL massive (compareble) problems with moral and "strikes", so it could also bow out in 1918 first if they loose important rail links supporting the frontline.
Before that the CP had the upper hand after they got Russia out of it. But after that, the Blockade got realy effective and the Entente got the fresh meat for the grinder.
Not to mention the industrial ressources they then got for "nothing"...
On the other hand, if you keep the USA out and more or less neutral, then it becomes a race to see who foldes next. Imo the Ottomans or Ital are the biggest candidates followed by France and then A-H.
A-H last, because they are somewhat seccured with Italy limping allong and more manpower preasure on the Anglo-French formations.
So it could go into 19. But 1920 is hard as all sides were exausted. And I do not know how the French would have reacted to the 1918 German offensives without American manpower arriving. They had OTL massive (compareble) problems with moral and "strikes", so it could also bow out in 1918 first if they loose important rail links supporting the frontline.
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
But that helps the OP -- if the PoD prevents the US getting involved, then the Allies (for financial, economic, morale, and other reasons) probably would have been forced to sue for peace earlier than the CP did OTL.
But the CP did not get "equal value" to keep them going after mid 1918. They "knew" that the fresh American troops, while first of poorer quality then other Entente ones, would swamp them under. They were simply not able to match that.
Together with the truely effective blockade strangeling what little they could import before and the near "limitless" economic and financial reserves they were simply doomed.
The OTL 1918 offensive was a last throw of the dice. But had they waited, Imo, they would have lost too somewhere in late 1918 or early 1919. The balance was simply too unbalanced after the USA DoW.
Together with the truely effective blockade strangeling what little they could import before and the near "limitless" economic and financial reserves they were simply doomed.
The OTL 1918 offensive was a last throw of the dice. But had they waited, Imo, they would have lost too somewhere in late 1918 or early 1919. The balance was simply too unbalanced after the USA DoW.
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
Well first, nobody said the CP had to win, just to extend the fighting for as long as possible; even if they were still doomed, it wasn't written that things had to fall apart starting when it did or as quickly as it did. I already mentioned the Vardar Offensive (and Ludendorff's subsequent breakdown), the Second Paris Conference, and the Naval Rebellion. Second, the CP did get a kind of second win with Brest-Litovsk, which opened up not only troops from the Eastern Front, but resources from the Ukraine, etc. Third, a big part of how the Allies managed to fight on in the Spring and Summer of 1918 was logistics (getting food to Paris, coal to Italy, etc); if, for example, the Spring Offensive had managed to capture the rail lines at Amiens and cut the lines from Paris to Northern France, then said logistics would be interrupted to the point that not only France but Italy would find themselves in situations even more politically precarious than OTL.
Sabot Cat
Banned
PoD: The naval order of 24 October 1918 is never issued due to the presence of a different Admiral, and thus no sailor's mutiny or Novemberrevolution breaks out in Germany.
The German Empire continues to find the United States' demand for an abdication for the Kaiser to be unacceptable, while attempts to negotiate an armistice fail as it becomes evident that Wilson's Fourteen Points won't be honored. Austria is invaded in its northern frontiers by Germany, securing the Brenner Pass and occupying Bohemia even as Austro-Hungary drop out of the war. The Kaiser becomes a co-belligerent with Soviet Union, using Finland as a staging ground capture the Kirov Railway as well as the ports of Arkhangelsk and Murmansk to provide relief from the British blockade with begrudging Russian Bolshevik assistance.
The Allied intervention in the Russian Civil War and the Turkish War of Independence are thus folded up into the greater World War I conflict without an armistice with Germany. Germany falls to revolution, let's say May 1st 1919 due to the extended lease on life they received with the aid of the Bolsheviks, and a truly socialist government takes power that attempts to negotiate peace with the Allies.
The Allies refuse fearing continued cooperation between Socialist Germany and Soviet Russia, pressing on for unconditional surrender while invading into their heartland. The war becomes increasingly unpopular in the United Kingdom, France, Italy and the United States, as participation begins to ebb. In 1920, an armistice is negotiated and treaties are signed between the belligerents from 1921 to 1923 without the creation of a League of Nations or a stab-in-the-back legend.
The German Empire continues to find the United States' demand for an abdication for the Kaiser to be unacceptable, while attempts to negotiate an armistice fail as it becomes evident that Wilson's Fourteen Points won't be honored. Austria is invaded in its northern frontiers by Germany, securing the Brenner Pass and occupying Bohemia even as Austro-Hungary drop out of the war. The Kaiser becomes a co-belligerent with Soviet Union, using Finland as a staging ground capture the Kirov Railway as well as the ports of Arkhangelsk and Murmansk to provide relief from the British blockade with begrudging Russian Bolshevik assistance.
The Allied intervention in the Russian Civil War and the Turkish War of Independence are thus folded up into the greater World War I conflict without an armistice with Germany. Germany falls to revolution, let's say May 1st 1919 due to the extended lease on life they received with the aid of the Bolsheviks, and a truly socialist government takes power that attempts to negotiate peace with the Allies.
The Allies refuse fearing continued cooperation between Socialist Germany and Soviet Russia, pressing on for unconditional surrender while invading into their heartland. The war becomes increasingly unpopular in the United Kingdom, France, Italy and the United States, as participation begins to ebb. In 1920, an armistice is negotiated and treaties are signed between the belligerents from 1921 to 1923 without the creation of a League of Nations or a stab-in-the-back legend.
That all is true. But to get a total victory for the Entente, Germany would have to be decicivly beaten. And then you ran into the problem that while the Germans were desparate, they were not suicidal morons!
That is clearly seen in 1918. As it became clear that the chances of success wer nil. They sought terms.
On the other hand to get them to keep fighting you would have to include some kind of unacceptable points between the Entente and CP. Like massive ideological differences or acctrocities on a scale not seen in WWI.
And the gains from the East for Germany would not materialize before mid 1919 or 1920. So the long term gains stood against the imideate gains for the Entente of the USA entry.
To get a purely prolonging of the CP fight, they would still need the resourcess they got from the neutrals in Europe. Not gone happen with the USA in the picture.
So maybe a purely defensive stance? Could get you some months. But would be a declaration of defeat for the CP in that the Entente then could prepare to use the massive boost of the USA to steamroll the German lines.
That is clearly seen in 1918. As it became clear that the chances of success wer nil. They sought terms.
On the other hand to get them to keep fighting you would have to include some kind of unacceptable points between the Entente and CP. Like massive ideological differences or acctrocities on a scale not seen in WWI.
And the gains from the East for Germany would not materialize before mid 1919 or 1920. So the long term gains stood against the imideate gains for the Entente of the USA entry.
To get a purely prolonging of the CP fight, they would still need the resourcess they got from the neutrals in Europe. Not gone happen with the USA in the picture.
So maybe a purely defensive stance? Could get you some months. But would be a declaration of defeat for the CP in that the Entente then could prepare to use the massive boost of the USA to steamroll the German lines.
Have the Italians fold after the Caporetto debacle, this relieves some of the pressure on A-H and allows transfer of some German troops (and maybe a few A-H troops) to bolster the Western Front. This does not mean the Michael Offensive is successful, but it can gain much more ground and hold it longer. At the same time the influenza epidemic, as bad as it was, hits even worse among US troops in USA and Europe (as well as British and French) which slows down the flow of troops to Europe and the effective strength already there. OTL Pershing planned a spring offensive for 1919 with 2 million US troops in Europe.
This does not mean the CP win, but it can put off the defeat 6+ months. Oh, and as long as I'm playing, have 1918 be a bumper crop year in Germany and any occupied lands - less food stress on civilians.
This does not mean the CP win, but it can put off the defeat 6+ months. Oh, and as long as I'm playing, have 1918 be a bumper crop year in Germany and any occupied lands - less food stress on civilians.
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
I think you might be underestimating the capability for delusional thinking Germany had under the Third OHL.
Could very well be 
.
But that still leaves the fact that they were not suicidal. And the civilian governemant and Kaiser should wield still considerable influence.
Seen in that the Gov. had to agree to the USW and such.
.But that still leaves the fact that they were not suicidal. And the civilian governemant and Kaiser should wield still considerable influence.
Seen in that the Gov. had to agree to the USW and such.
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
See, I had thought that the Chancellor was opposed to USW, and had to be overruled by the Kaiser; didn't he say that "Germany is committing suicide" or something along those lines? (Mind you, I have also read arguments that OHL's control of the government has often been overstated, so it's still a fair point.)