AHC: Prevent the War of 1812

With no PoDs prior to 1810 (or 1809 at the earliest), how can the United States remain neutral for the duration of the Napoleonic Wars (assuming end in 1814 as OTL)? And while we're at it, what would be the effects?
 

raharris1973

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Britain rescinds the Admiralty's Orders in Council in 1811 instead of 1812. They did this in OTL but a few weeks or months too late.

Effects- longer survival of Federalist party, nonexistent or different start of Andrew Jackson's political career, slightly more New England and northern orientation toward maritime commerce at the expense of slightly less orientation toward manufacturing. Can't see the USA stand by and not attack Tecumseh and the Prophet by 1813.

Possibly more aggressive American attitude toward the Spanish Empire during the 1820s or late 1810s.

Less US-Canadian estrangement, more cross-border identification.
 
Britain rescinds the Admiralty's Orders in Council in 1811 instead of 1812. They did this in OTL but a few weeks or months too late.

I disagree; I think America declared war too early. :p So, delay the US DOW by a few months somehow, and the news of the Orders in Council will arrive before war breaks out.
 

raharris1973

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I disagree; I think America declared war too early. :p So, delay the US DOW by a few months somehow, and the news of the Orders in Council will arrive before war breaks out.

Hah!;)

Sure. I guess as the American in the exchange I tend to see the politics and broad developments of my own country as more *inevitable* and I see decisions by other countries as more changeable [maybe just because I know less about the good reasons the foreign decisions were made].

Just guessing about how to slow down the U.S. declaration of war, perhaps the whole legislative calendar in the US can be slowed down, with Macon's Bill #2 being delayed and the French response being delayed, so resumption of trade sanctions on Britain is delayed.

A France-based PoD could be Napoleon dawdling longer before saying he accepts the terms of Macon's Bill #2. Who knows if he did honor those terms or intended to, but he found it convenient to say he would right away.

-----OK, so on Britain's end, @Fabius Maximus, how could they have been led to rescind the most "impressive" parts of the Orders in Council a few months earlier, without drastic changes to the Napoleonic Wars?
 
a more intense Quasi War with France, the Federalists manage to get at de facto alliance with the British and the fighting drags on long enough to make it into a more permanent alliance.

another possibility is without the Louisiana Purchase, the French (or Spanish) are the principle enemy as in the scheme of things the Mississippi Valley and its outlet are far more critical than Canada or Florida
 
Since the naval causes (impressment, trade, etc) tend to get a lot of attention, what can be done about the other causes stemming from the other theater, Indian relations between the US and Canada? For example, could the Battle of Tippercanoe have turned out differently in such a way as to make the outbreak of war with the British Empire less likely?

(Also, @galveston bay, note OP said no PoDs prior to 1809 or 1810.)
 
Since the naval causes (impressment, trade, etc) tend to get a lot of attention, what can be done about the other causes stemming from the other theater, Indian relations between the US and Canada? For example, could the Battle of Tippercanoe have turned out differently in such a way as to make the outbreak of war with the British Empire less likely?

(Also, @galveston bay, note OP said no PoDs prior to 1809 or 1810.)

sorry missed that, well then things get a lot harder as the pressure has been building longer

Greater pressure in Spain due to poor crop yields leads Wellington to push the government to appease the Americans and buy more American food stuffs. More British money comes into the US economy, meaning farmers are pleased, their Congressmen are pleased and less support in Congress for silly things like invading Canada. Meanwhile the British pull their support from the tribes in the Northwest Territory and the practice of stopping American ships and taking off sailors. More food pours into Spain and Portugal easing the difficulty the Spanish and British armies have in feeding themselves and for that matter easing the strain of the Spanish peasantry in friendly territory.

The Americans continue to be neutral as the pressures that led to the war in OTL are eased just enough to prevent Congressional support from triggering a declaration of war. It wouldn't take a lot really.
 

raharris1973

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we can imagine a Spanish war hawk (Crawford?) getting elected President in 1816, leading to war in 1818.

Is that the same Crawford who ran for President later in OTL. Where was he from, what was his full name and where did we learn of his Spanish war hawk priorities?
 
William H Crawford, yes, candidate in 1816; I don't remember where I got the idea for him as the President who takes the US to war with Spain, but I believe he was among the Hawks for 1812 OTL.

He was only a hawk insofar as he felt America was getting screwed by the Orders in Council, once that came to an end he was pretty ambivalent about the fighting. If he's elected president I doubt he pushes for war with Spain, he probably wants a deal with them to get Texas along with Florida.
 

raharris1973

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I don't know, but I would tend to think a candidate from Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky would be more inclined to go that route
 
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