AHC: Prevent the Spanish-American War...

It'd be helpful if Spain didn't let her position as the 4th world naval power it held in the 1870s to go down the crapper by years and year of neglect. It should be enough intimidating to do so.

Having the Conservative party's government actually respect the terms of the peace of Zanjón would help a lot too. At least, as to prevent any excuse from within to invade. Now, since 1898 was more of naked expansionism, at least now, Spain would be a better international and military standing, so the US might think twice before going into war...
 
this war was so easy to avoid, except for the perfect confluence of events.

Butterflies: Teddy Roosevelt. he rode this to fame and to the presidency.

and Phillipines lending to American presenting itself in the far pacific.

I'm a little hazy on the Hawaiian annexation, only knowing it came in the same year. Not sure if Hawaii is just a convenient "let's do it as long as we're taking over the world", or whether it happens anyway.

Hawaii likely happens anyway; the roots of its annexation are independent from this war. Now, it might be delayed, but chances are that it happens anyway.
 
It'd be helpful if Spain didn't let her position as the 4th world naval power it held in the 1870s to go down the crapper by years and year of neglect. It should be enough intimidating to do so.

Having the Conservative party's government actually respect the terms of the peace of Zanjón would help a lot too. At least, as to prevent any excuse from within to invade. Now, since 1898 was more of naked expansionism, at least now, Spain would be a better international and military standing, so the US might think twice before going into war...

Well, it is a good idea making Spain more powerful.

If you can make the Spanish navy accept Isaac Peral's submarine, you got a Spanish Navy has the capability to sink any great power's navy. A squadron of those Peral subs, which happens to be at the level of WW2 submarine standards, in 1890s is quite deadly.

Almodóvar 2009
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Remember the Matsushima!

Prevent the Spanish-American War from escalating outside Cuba (or minimize the incidents in the Pacific), or prevent the war itself.

The Japanese protected cruiser IJS Matshushima (commssioned 1891) was destroyed by an internal explosion in April, 1908; have her visit Manila in April, 1897 and suffer the same fate.

The situation escalates; the Spanish deny any responsibility, and blame the Japanese warship's crew; the Japanese are insulted; the Filipino nationalists make the Japanese an offer, and before you can say "Greater South Seas Co-Prosperity Sphere" Japan and Spain are at war.

Japan's fleet amounts to one capital ship and nine (reasonably) modern protected cruisers (less Matsushima), and has the experience of the 1894-95 war with China under its belt; the Imperial South Seas Fleet steams south and disposes of the Spanish East Indies Squadron as quickly as Dewey et al did (historically) in 1898...

The Phillipine nationalists rise, and with a mix of Japanese-supplied weapons and advisers and their own guts drive the Spanish garrisons into the fortifications of Manila and the other larger cities.

A Japanese division is transported to Lingayen Gulf, and lands amidst crowds of cheering Filipinos, marching south towards Manila; in the meantime, small Japanese squadrons have shown up at what passes for the centers of Spanish authority in Micronesia and had raised the rising sun.

The Americans decide this is the time to make their interests in Hawaii and various points east of the Dateline clear, and the Republic of Hawaii rapidly petitions for annexation as a territory, which petition is rapidly granted, The battleship Oregon weighs anchor from San Francisco and arrives with a small squadron and an infantry brigade made up of regulars and California militia and lands amidst crowds of cheering Hawaiians...

In addition, the US Atlantic Squadron begins a series of exercises in Tampa Bay, where a mixed division of marines, regulars, and militia is practicing amphibous landings...

The Spanish, seeking to cut their losses, ask for a conference, and acknowledge the independence of the Philippine "state" which calls itself a republic but which rapidly becomes a protectorate of the Empire of Japan. The Japanese annex Micronesia outright, establishing their headquarters on the island of Guam.

A year later, the US "intervenes" in Cuba and Puerto Rico at the invitation of the "Provisional Government of the Spanish West Indies" and both Cuba and Puerto Rico are "liberated" by combined American and Cuban republican forces; both islands become "independent republics" but rapidly become protectorates of the United States.

There you go.

Best,
 
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Japan's fleet amounts to one capital ship and nine (reasonably) modern protected cruisers (less Matsushima), and has the experience of the 1894-95 war with China under its belt; the Imperial South Seas Fleet steams south and disposes of the Spanish East Indies Squadron as quickly as Dewey et al did (historically) in 1898...

In order for you to do that, you need for the local forts to stop any preparation. OTL 1897 The rebels didnt have any traction to stop any defensive preparation, like Mine laying nor capturing forts that can stop Dewey going inside Manila Bay or join the battle itself.

Non of these preparation happened due to the rebels in OTL 1898. Otherwise the US Asiatic fleet would have been slaughtered nor there would be any battle of Manila bay.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
If the Spanish go to ground inside Manila Bay,

In order for you to do that, you need for the local forts to stop any preparation. OTL 1897 The rebels didnt have any traction to stop any defensive preparation, like Mine laying nor capturing forts that can stop Dewey going inside Manila Bay or join the battle itself.

Non of these preparation happened due to the rebels in OTL 1898. Otherwise the US Asiatic fleet would have been slaughtered nor there would be any battle of Manila bay.


If the Spanish go to ground inside Manila Bay, the Japanese have the numbers (in warships and access to merchant colliers, etc.) to blockade, using Olangapo, Subic, or some other location that was not defended to coal when necessary.

If the Spanish sortie, I'd expect given the differential in modern ships, the Japanese can dispose of them; the Sino-Japanese war is evidence of that. Same situation as Santiago Bay, actually.

Then the IJA lands at Lingayen or wherever, some Filipinos rise against the Spanish, the Spanish are defeated, the Filipinos and the Japanese confront each other, and its 1898-1903 all over again, except with the occupiers under a different flag.

Best,
 
If the Spanish go to ground inside Manila Bay, the Japanese have the numbers (in warships and access to merchant colliers, etc.) to blockade, using Olangapo, Subic, or some other location that was not defended to coal when necessary.

If the Spanish sortie, I'd expect given the differential in modern ships, the Japanese can dispose of them; the Sino-Japanese war is evidence of that. Same situation as Santiago Bay, actually.

Then the IJA lands at Lingayen or wherever, some Filipinos rise against the Spanish, the Spanish are defeated, the Filipinos and the Japanese confront each other, and its 1898-1903 all over again, except with the occupiers under a different flag.

Best,

1898 yes this can happen.

1899 to 1903 was more of a Filipino American war.

The relationship between Japan and Philippines is closer than USA-Philippines in 1890s. So protectorate is a very good possibility unless every Insulares and mestizo revolted which meant that the Spanish east indies army and navy joined the rebels wherein protection is not necessarily required nor the IJN nor the IJA needs to participate just like OTL where the US army was not needed.

Katipunan did ask help directly to the Emperor in OTL 1896.

"History Of Katipunan - Home On The Net". Katipunan.weebly.com.
http://joserizal.nhcp.gov.ph/Biography/man_and_martyr/valenzuela_pio.htm
 
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