AHC prevent the Second World War

[Jan Olbracht]

And are the Germans going to know that France isn't going to fight Germany if they invade Poland (and that Britain isn't going to intervene on the side of France)? I doubt it.

If Germany have not example of Munich? No. It was Munich, that made Hitler believe, that WAllies would not raise a finger in defence of their eastern allies.

And speaking about Munich-even "notzi" Germany would go for Austria first and then for Sudetenland, because these were easier goals than Corridor and Germany could use ethnic argument (raised by Allies themselves after ww1) to justify these annexations.

 

[Post]

And speaking about Munich-even "notzi" Germany would go for Austria first and then for Sudetenland, because these were easier goals than Corridor and Germany could use ethnic argument (raised by Allies themselves after ww1) to justify these annexations.

II don't think that is certain at all. The Austrian naziparty's popularity rose when the popularity of the nazi's in Germany rose. If Hitler is dead in WW1 or at the putsch in 1923, it's a question if the nazi's will rise to power in Germany. This will also effect the naziparty in Austria and they may not rise to power.

The Austrians may still want to unify with Germany, but in OTL Hitler send an ultimatum. A nozi-leadership maybe doesn't do it, and instead of the Wehrmacht marching into Austria, Austria may be unified with Germany (more) peacefully and at a later date. This will impact the view in France and the UK.

In OTL the timeline is as follows:
- 1932 Hitler rises to power and establishes a dictatorship
- 1935 Saarland votes to be part of Germany
- 1936 remilitarization of Rhineland
- march 1938 Anchluss (9 march a referendum is announced for the 13th, 11 march Hitler issues an ultimatum, 12 march Wehrmacht marches into Austria)
- september 1938 Munich treaty, Germany annexes Sudetenland
- march 1939 Germany annexes the rest of Czechoslovakia
- august 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop pact
- september 1939 invasion of Poland
- april 1940 invasino of Denmark and Norway
- june 1940 fall of France
- may 1941 Barbarossa

If Hitler is dead before 1930, things will change. The only thing on this list that I'm pretty will be the same is the Saarland vote. Everything else (most notably Hitler being the Führer in 1932) is subject to change. Hitler/the nazi's may not issue the ultimatum to Austria in 1938, meaning there is a referendum and Austria may vote voluntarily to join Germany. Or with no Austrian nazi's in power, there is never an organized movement in Austria to join Germany.
Even if they will annex Sudetenland, the nozi's may not annex Czechoslovakia.
Even if they invade Poland with the USSR, they may decide to be content with Danzig and East Prussia and leave a rump Poland.
Even if they don't, the peaceful anschluss and not having annexed the rest of Czechoslovakia may mean France and the UK don't see as much reason as OTL too sign a defenceagreement with Poland.
Will the nozi's invade Denmark and Norway as in OTL?
Even if France falls, the nozi's may count their blessings afterwards and sign a peace and be just content with Alsace-Lorraine, Eupen-Malmedy and maybe some parts of the Netherlands.
Even if they continue to war, the nozi's do not have the same quest for Lebensraum in the east and probably won't attack the USSR.

Even if everything happens, it doesn't have to happen in the same timeframe. Which in itself may lead to major changes in the course of the war.

There's also the rebuilding of the military in Germany. Nozi's may do it slower than the nazi's, which will effect the size of their army in 1939.

So there's lots of things that can change if Hitler is dead before 1930 and the nazi's never rise. While you're making it sound like "whoever rules Germany, they will make the exact same decisions as Hitler did." Especially the ultimatum to Austria and the annexation of the rest of Czechoslovakia. If these don't happen, it's very likely the UK and France won't be as worried/feel as threatened as they did OTL. And if then the next move of the nozi's is towards Danzig and the Polish corridor, that may the Munich treaty of TTL.

The nozi's maybe content at that point and WW2 is averted. Or maybe they'll lay their eyes on Schleswig-Holstein, Eupen/Malmedy and Alsace-Lorraine next and you get a different WW2.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

II don't think that is certain at all. The Austrian naziparty's popularity rose when the popularity of the nazi's in Germany rose. If Hitler is dead in WW1 or at the putsch in 1923, it's a question if the nazi's will rise to power in Germany. This will also effect the naziparty in Austria and they may not rise to power.

The Austrians may still want to unify with Germany, but in OTL Hitler send an ultimatum. A nozi-leadership maybe doesn't do it, and instead of the Wehrmacht marching into Austria, Austria may be unified with Germany (more) peacefully and at a later date. This will impact the view in France and the UK.

In OTL the timeline is as follows:
- 1932 Hitler rises to power and establishes a dictatorship
- 1935 Saarland votes to be part of Germany
- 1936 remilitarization of Rhineland
- march 1938 Anchluss (9 march a referendum is announced for the 13th, 11 march Hitler issues an ultimatum, 12 march Wehrmacht marches into Austria)
- september 1938 Munich treaty, Germany annexes Sudetenland
- march 1939 Germany annexes the rest of Czechoslovakia
- august 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop pact
- september 1939 invasion of Poland
- april 1940 invasino of Denmark and Norway
- june 1940 fall of France
- may 1941 Barbarossa

If Hitler is dead before 1930, things will change. The only thing on this list that I'm pretty will be the same is the Saarland vote. Everything else (most notably Hitler being the Führer in 1932) is subject to change. Hitler/the nazi's may not issue the ultimatum to Austria in 1938, meaning there is a referendum and Austria may vote voluntarily to join Germany. Or with no Austrian nazi's in power, there is never an organized movement in Austria to join Germany.
Even if they will annex Sudetenland, the nozi's may not annex Czechoslovakia.
Even if they invade Poland with the USSR, they may decide to be content with Danzig and East Prussia and leave a rump Poland.
Even if they don't, the peaceful anschluss and not having annexed the rest of Czechoslovakia may mean France and the UK don't see as much reason as OTL too sign a defenceagreement with Poland.
Will the nozi's invade Denmark and Norway as in OTL?
Even if France falls, the nozi's may count their blessings afterwards and sign a peace and be just content with Alsace-Lorraine, Eupen-Malmedy and maybe some parts of the Netherlands.
Even if they continue to war, the nozi's do not have the same quest for Lebensraum in the east and probably won't attack the USSR.

Even if everything happens, it doesn't have to happen in the same timeframe. Which in itself may lead to major changes in the course of the war.

There's also the rebuilding of the military in Germany. Nozi's may do it slower than the nazi's, which will effect the size of their army in 1939.

So there's lots of things that can change if Hitler is dead before 1930 and the nazi's never rise. While you're making it sound like "whoever rules Germany, they will make the exact same decisions as Hitler did." Especially the ultimatum to Austria and the annexation of the rest of Czechoslovakia. If these don't happen, it's very likely the UK and France won't be as worried/feel as threatened as they did OTL. And if then the next move of the nozi's is towards Danzig and the Polish corridor, that may the Munich treaty of TTL.

The nozi's maybe content at that point and WW2 is averted. Or maybe they'll lay their eyes on Schleswig-Holstein, Eupen/Malmedy and Alsace-Lorraine next and you get a different WW2.

Thing is notzis does not need to start a war if they just give up fucking corridor (Danzig + exteritorrial links are things they can take without war). If they're supposed to be sane they should see it. Munich with Danzig for Germany and exteritorrial highway/railroad may work, but not whole corridor, because in such case Poland would fight, even alone.

 

[Post]

Thing is notzis does not need to start a war if they just give up fucking corridor (Danzig + exteritorrial links are things they can take without war). If they're supposed to be sane they should see it. Munich with Danzig for Germany and exteritorrial highway/railroad may work, but not whole corridor, because in such case Poland would fight, even alone.

That's what I meant with

the peaceful anschluss and not having annexed the rest of Czechoslovakia may mean France and the UK don't see as much reason as OTL too sign a defenceagreement with Poland.
(...)
And if then the next move of the nozi's is towards Danzig and the Polish corridor, that may the Munich treaty of TTL.

UK and France may agree with the German demands. (with or without Polish Corridor). Maybe Poland will fight regardless, but then they're on their own. I doubt the UK and France will go to war if the Germans just demand Danzig and the Polish Corridor (after an Austrian referendum and an agreement on German annexation of Sudetenland).

 

[Jan Olbracht]

That's what I meant with

UK and France may agree with the German demands. (with or without Polish Corridor). Maybe Poland will fight regardless, but then they're on their own. I doubt the UK and France will go to war if the Germans just demand Danzig and the Polish Corridor (after an Austrian referendum and an agreement on German annexation of Sudetenland).

In Austria, Sudetenland and Danzig they may simply win plebiscites and claim, that it is self-determination of local inhabitants that was behind border change. With Corridor things are different as it has solid Polish majority and for Poland loss of Corridor is the same as loss of independence. Germans could as well demand Warsaw.

 

[Post]

In Austria, Sudetenland and Danzig they may simply win plebiscites and claim, that it is self-determination of local inhabitants that was behind border change. With Corridor things are different as it has solid Polish majority and for Poland loss of Corridor is the same as loss of independence. Germans could as well demand Warsaw.

But they're not demanding Warsaw. They're demanding a land bridge to East Prussia. Which sounds much more reasonable to the UK and France (ITTL). So they're not starting WW2 over it. Which was the challenge of this thread. A German-Polish war over the Corridor is not WW2.

And as I said: the nozi's may not even demand the Corridor, because they feel it's asking to much. If they want just Danzig and an exteritorrial highway/railroad even a German-Polish was may be avoided.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

And as I said: the nozi's may not even demand the Corridor, because they feel it's asking to much. If they want just Danzig and an exteritorrial highway/railroad even a German-Polish was may be avoided.

Even Hitler was aware about importance of Corridor for Poland and toned down demands during his early years in power. Thus notzis should understand it even better. Danzig was not that important for Poland after Gdynia was build and exteritorrial links through not particulary wide corridor isn't something unthinkable (obviously, in OTL 1939, after Hitler broken so many promises, it is understandable that even such demands were rejected by Poles).

 

[Post]

Even Hitler was aware about importance of Corridor for Poland and toned down demands during his early years in power. Thus notzis should understand it even better. Danzig was not that important for Poland after Gdynia was build and exteritorrial links through not wide corridor isn't something unthinkable (obviously, in OTL 1939, after Hitler broken so many promises, it is understandable that even such demands were rejected by Poles).

Since we're now discussing what was acceptable to Poland in regard to the Corridor, I think we can agree that having no Hitler makes it possible to avoid WW2.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Since we're now discussing what was acceptable to Poland in regard to the Corridor, I think we can agree that having no Hitler makes it possible to avoid WW2.

Possibly even having Hitler killed in 1938/39 may be enough. Or having Hitler, who is reasonable enough to not believe his own propaganda-paradox is, that after Hitler took power, Polish-German relations improved for a while.

 

[Whiteshore]

honestly, this scenario is quite easy. make Versailles harsher. do what the French wanted to do in the first place. break Germany up into little pieces and kick them while they're down. make sure they dont rise again. make the Americans have less say in Versailles, and the British more willing to force much higher reparations on the Germans. Also, make the British and French NOT bail out the Germans at all in the 20's, or the 30's, and do what the Germans did the the Belgians and French. take their industry and use it to fix their own countries.

Maybe combine this with Russia either not having the October Revolution and thus staying in the war or a White Victory in the civil war?

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Maybe combine this with Russia either not having the October Revolution and thus staying in the war or a White Victory in the civil war?

White Russia would not be politically isolated like Red Russia was and would remain part of European alliance system. Thus stability of Europe would greatly improve.

 

[Whiteshore]

White Russia would not be politically isolated like Red Russia was and would remain part of European alliance system. Thus stability of Europe would greatly improve.

And the lack of a spectre of Bolshevism/Communism might stiffen the spine of the British and French when it came to enforcing the post-WW1 treaties and a Russian Republic/Empire would be less willing than the USSR to assist the Reichswehr.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

And the lack of a spectre of Bolshevism/Communism might stiffen the spine of the British and French when it came to enforcing the post-WW1 treaties and a Russian Republic/Empire would be less willing than the USSR to assist the Reichswehr.

Soviet Union was pariah state and paranoid "besieged fortress". White Russia would not be like that. And France would see White Russia as natural ally (IOTL for France Poland and Czechoslovakia were ersatz for lost alliance with Russia).

 

[Wolf of Badenoch]

I think in order to prevent WWII or a reasonable permutation of it you really have to do a couple of things:

Prevent the hyperinflation in Weimar. I think once Weimar became the poster child for hyperinflation some kind of hardcore conflict is more or less baked in the cake. Maybe a different settlement ending WWI might make this feasible.

Prevent the USSR from becoming a superpower in the 1920s, at least not the one that terrified the hell out of most of Europe. This probably means a different outcome to the Russian Civil war.

If you do that I suspect you won't get a WW2. That probably delays the next big bloodletting until after nuclear weapons are a mature technology.

Possibly prevent the formation of the Comintern, this would slow or impair the formation of an effective KPD and remove at least one of the parties struggling for control of German?

 

[Ambusher11]

Thus notzis should understand it even better.

Actually, if anything, the "Notzis" would probably not understand it better than Hitler. He after all signed the declaration of non-aggression with Poland in January 1934 against opposition from the Reichsminister of Foreign Affairs Konstantin von Neurath who stated in April 1933 that reaching an understanding with Poland was impossible and undesirable and that the tension with Poland should be maintained so that the world wouldn't lose interest in the revision of the German-Polish border (Of course, he also said that Germany should be very cautious in its policy towards Poland to avoid being subjected to a preventive war). Even Gustav Stresemann wanted not just the Polish Corridor, but Eastern Upper Silesia as well, to be ceded to Germany.