AHC: prevent Franco-German rapprochement

One of the biggest miracles in geopolitics is the realignment in Europe towards France and Germany as long-term allies under the aegis of NATO and the EU. This is in sharp contrast to the state of the countries since the Treaty of Verdun, where West and East Francia and their descendant states were fierce geopolitical rivals, culminating in not one, but two wars for the destiny of the continent.

So my challenge to you is: is it possible to make it so that France and Germany remain geopolitical rivals even to the present?
 

Deleted member 94680

A permanently Independent Saarland or the Monnet Plan being implemented? The Morganthau Plan being implemented and supported by France?
 
I take it with a PoD after May 1945?
I'd say you need several smaller things, reinforcing and escalating each other. Take together perhaps:
- Some "incidents" in the French occupation zone. Nothing Earth-scattering just causing resentment. Perhaps "aided" by French politicians talking about how them Krauts got it coming. Germans talk about how the Saar suffered under the French jackboot a lot more often than France was invaded by Germany. Grumbling all around.
- Clement Attlees Labour gouvernment decides that faced with a huge New Russian Empire, Britain is no longer kept safe by seeking a disunited Europe. Instead Western Europe must be under British Leadership.
- Add some other butterflies and you could see an EEC with Britain replacing France as one of the six founding members.
- France then like Britain OTL huffs, puffs and stays out. Later when they want to join Germany like France OTL vetoes it.
- France holds on tighter to it's de-facto colonial Empire after de-jure decolonization. Drawing the ire of the German Left aka the part who'd otherwise be pushing strongest for making concessions.
- France eventually joins the EEC, but never has more power than Spain or Italy. Germany and the UK are firmly in the drivers seat.
That should be enough for fences never to really be mended.
After the Fall of the Warsaw Pact, there's no Euro, since Britain has no interest in demanding that from Germany as a price for unification and no one in Germany cares about French disapproval. The Deutschmark becomes the unofficial parallel currency in much of Eastern Europe and the Balkans. Doesn't turn Germany into a superpower, but gives it enough clout to count as "geopolitical rival" to France IMHO.
 
All you really need to have is Germany not be accepted by the Western Allies post-war that brought them into the liberal fold. This can be done through the preventing of re-industrialization/militarization or a long period of heavier French military occupation. The BDR was established in 49, which gave at least an illusion of an independent country. Say this is prevented and the DDR still comes about the same time, more Germans would look eastward rather than West. Sprinkle in a few incidents by French soldiers in the Saarland or have DeGaul try to take more German territory post-war and you have a much colder French-German relationship.
 
All you really need to have is Germany not be accepted by the Western Allies post-war that brought them into the liberal fold. This can be done through the preventing of re-industrialization/militarization or a long period of heavier French military occupation. The BDR was established in 49, which gave at least an illusion of an independent country. Say this is prevented and the DDR still comes about the same time, more Germans would look eastward rather than West. Sprinkle in a few incidents by French soldiers in the Saarland or have DeGaul try to take more German territory post-war and you have a much colder French-German relationship.
That would leave Germany too weak to be a geopolitical rival.
 
Well, you could have either France or West Germany go communist. Or, for that matter, have them both go communist but follow different types of communism.
 
Prevent the European Coal and Steel Community from being formed, somehow.

Robert Schuman doesn't become French foreign minister, so no Schuman Declaration, or any equivalent. France instead forms an economic bloc that deliberately excludes Germany.

One way to make this happen is that Kurt Schumacher instead of Konrad Adenauer becomes the Chancellor of Germany in the 1949 election...
OTL he was against the ECSC IIRC, because he saw it as a "tool of capitalist dominion"...
Also, he was more "neutralist", in contrast to to Adenauer, who was very pro-Western Alliance (such as with NATO, among others)...

Another one could be German or French leaders expressing antagonistic/revisionist rhetoric, similar to OTL post-war Japanese politicians...

- Clement Attlees Labour gouvernment decides that faced with a huge New Russian Empire, Britain is no longer kept safe by seeking a disunited Europe. Instead Western Europe must be under British Leadership.

OTL though, the idea of a united Europe was more associated with the Tories, like with Churchill's Zurich speech IIRC to some extent...
Plus Attlee would not be that supportive of supranationalism even if he did push for a united Western Europe...
OTL, the OEEC (later OECD) and Council of Europe were intergovernmental because of UK opposition to supranationalism...
 
Top