AHC: President Mondale

Possibility?

In 1983, Reagan refuses to re-nominate Paul Volcker for Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Maybe for a more accurate de-regulator, possibly Greenspan or someone else. The economic recovery does not fully happen, and without Volcker's tight fiscal policy plus high deficits, inflation begins creeping back. At the same time, throughout 1983, unemployment is at a high of over 9.5%.

In the Democratic primaries, Mondale is able to quickly beat out possible Democratic challengers, and chooses national hero John Glenn for Vice-President, thus giving his campaign an extra boost. Despite low Reagan approval ratings, Mondale is in no way guaranteed the Presidency thanks to Reagan's charisma and evidence of a slowly improving economy, as seen by unemployment now being in the sevens. However, Mondale, despite a lack of charisma, is able to hammer Reagan in the debates over high deficits, the slow recovery, and cuts to things like social security. On election day, Mondale wins a narrow victory.

Not sure about the nuances, but this is an idea. I'm no award winning economist, so forgive any possible mis-statements.
 
^Combine that with an earlier Iran-Contra, including an American volunteer nun getting shot by the Contras.
 
Possibility?

In 1983, Reagan refuses to re-nominate Paul Volcker for Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Maybe for a more accurate de-regulator, possibly Greenspan or someone else. The economic recovery does not fully happen, and without Volcker's tight fiscal policy plus high deficits, inflation begins creeping back. At the same time, throughout 1983, unemployment is at a high of over 9.5%.

In the Democratic primaries, Mondale is able to quickly beat out possible Democratic challengers, and chooses national hero John Glenn for Vice-President, thus giving his campaign an extra boost. Despite low Reagan approval ratings, Mondale is in no way guaranteed the Presidency thanks to Reagan's charisma and evidence of a slowly improving economy, as seen by unemployment now being in the sevens. However, Mondale, despite a lack of charisma, is able to hammer Reagan in the debates over high deficits, the slow recovery, and cuts to things like social security. On election day, Mondale wins a narrow victory.

Not sure about the nuances, but this is an idea. I'm no award winning economist, so forgive any possible mis-statements.

If the federal reserve doesn't tighten the money supply as suddenly and aggressively, it's doubtful we see the sort of unemployment rate we did from 1981-1982 let alone a higher one. Also, Reagan signed a massive increase in payroll tax that same year to continue Medicare and Social Security and in fact, significantly expanded both... I'm not really sure what could make Reagan decide to pursue such a radical shift in policy from OTL especially a year from re-election time.

I think if Reagan's health and competence is seriously called into question and the US deals with something on the level of a tsunami or hurricane devastating the Northeast or oil pipelines get seriously disrupted it might be plausible. And I guess there's the potential for Lebanon to blow up worse. But I think you'd really need some wrath of God/borderline ASB type events to get the sort of victory OP is talking about that late in the game. Mondale was really pretty spectacularly awful at campaigning and sort of got lucky as it was going up against Hart, never mind a professional politician like Reagan.
 
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Yeah by 1983 it's too late for Reagan to make a major policy error on the economy, as Volcker has already saved it for him.

-Reagan doesn't reappoint Volcker, which would have little effect at this point IMO but would look really bad.
-He can still screw up Social Security reform though after the POD.
-A major foreign policy blunder or scandal.
-Reagan has several noticeable gaffes in the debates. Despite Mondale (publicly) pretending the issue is no big deal, he tries to portray himself as a picture. As a clincher, Mondale needs to be the one that makes the joke about the age issue in one of the debates.

Mondale might have a shot.
 
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