AHC: President Jackson's War for Cuba or California

raharris1973

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Here's the challenge - with a PoD any time after 1816, have an Andrew Jackson administration fight and win a war with Spain over Cuba, or a war with Mexico over California, Texas, maybe the Yucatan or other places sometime between 1825 and 1837 [choose from his historic terms, plus John Quincy Adams' term in case Jackson is elected in 24 and inaugurated in 25]
 

raharris1973

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inclusion of Cuba as a potential target was inspired by this remark by @moxn on another thread
Jefferson believed it inevitable that the US take Cuba one way or another, and decades later Jackson wanted to invade the island outright.
 
Have fun. Logistics are a killer.

Against Cuba, you're up against the Spanish navy and empire, and the US was pretty small and weak in AJ's time.
Moreover, the rebels in Cuba fighting against Spain would just as cheerfully fight against the US - which would want to keep them as slaves.

Against California. Ouch. How do you even GET there?
Do you conquer Texas first, then New Mexico and Arizona before conquering California? 1000 mile supply lines in hostile territory?

Not saying either is technically ASB, but the sheer height of the hurdles to be crossed is overwhelming.

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Cuba: if Spain and Britain were involved in a war over Gibraltar, say, then the US could defeat the Spanish forces in Cuba, I suppose. Can they also HOLD Cuba? That's the next question.

California. ...
Have AJ ally the US with France in a puffed up Pastry War, US forces join with French ones in taking Veracruz. The French insist on totally unreasonable demands (why?) from the Mexican government, which totally unreasonably refuses to negotiate (why?). Both sides refuse British mediation ('cause everybody's drinking lead paint?)
Franco-American forces take Mexico City. France installs a puppet government, which promptly signs all of northern Mexico (i.e. California to Texas) over to the US.

American forces leave 'Mexico' (having 'won'), and start fighting all the locals from the Sabine river to the Pacific.
Without a functional Mexican central government, there's little support for the locals, and after an extended fight (probably a decade) the US finally takes possession of all that land.

Now, why the US would agree to any of this, especially the huge (by US standards) standing army and the massive increase in taxation it would require, is quite beyond me. But someone MIGHT be able to fill in the blanks.

Really, really, really improbable.
 
Against Cuba, you're up against the Spanish navy and empire, and the US was pretty small and weak in AJ's time.
Moreover, the rebels in Cuba fighting against Spain would just as cheerfully fight against the US - which would want to keep them as slaves.

The Spanish navy was still in shambles at that point, since the Napoleonic wars had just ended, and most of the empire was falling apart to revolution. If the USA wanted to attack Cuba, it would have had to do so in the short window of time before Spain could fully recover. Even then, I think it would require a buildup on the US's part, and avoiding the destruction from the War of 1812.

The Cubano rebels themselves would probably be split. The white criollos and peninsulares would most definitely not be enslaved, and I don't see it happening to the mestizos either. Some in the merchant class might have been old enough to remember the British occupation and the subsequent economic boom, and could have bet on a similar boom with the US in Havana.

I still think California would be far too much at the time. The USA was concerned about Cuba and Texas (or rather, an extension of the Louisiana purchase to the Rio Grande). There's no way they could have sent a sizable force all the way to California, and I'm not sure if they'd have the political desire to try. The only way I could see it happening at that point would be if Spain simply ceded California in a peace treaty, but the US would struggle to try and govern the place, and I doubt Mexico would recognize it. This could lead to an earlier Mexican-American War, which could possibly favor the Mexicans.
 

raharris1973

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At what point? OTL AJ didn't become President until '29, iirc.

By which time the Spanish had given up trying to win back the mainland colonies.

Maybe they were still trying in some places as late as 1825, I am leaving the door open for Jackson to be elected over Adams in '24 as a PoD or outcome.
 

raharris1973

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I dunno that California was so unreachable, at least by the 1830s. American started doing a good bit of business there by sea from 1800-1830, Americans were also active in Oregon, Lewis and Clark scoped it out, and Zebulon Pike wandered all through New Mexico.
 
At what point? OTL AJ didn't become President until '29, iirc.

I'm going off the OP putting it at some point in the last eighteen-teens.

I dunno that California was so unreachable, at least by the 1830s. American started doing a good bit of business there by sea from 1800-1830, Americans were also active in Oregon, Lewis and Clark scoped it out, and Zebulon Pike wandered all through New Mexico.

I think by 1830 it could be too late; Spain should have recovered its strength by then, unless the USA waits for the Carlist Wars to strike.
 

raharris1973

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What if the Jackson Administration were confronted with the Texas revolution being defeated? Would Jackson tolerate that, or intervene on behalf of Texas?

If he intervened in Texas and succeeded, where would he set its western boundary, and would Texas annexation automatically follow?
 
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