AHC: President Gore vs. Bush in 2000

POD: Bill Clinton decides to step down after the Lewinsky scandal breaks in early 1998 and Al Gore assumes the presidency. Two years later Gore fends off a primary challenge from Bill Bradley and he faces George W. Bush in the general election. What would be the result of a match between President, not Vice-President, Al Gore and Bush?
 
Well do things do the same as OTL except bill resigns out of shame or pressure or some other reason? Or is he in a Nixon situation where if he doesn’t resign he will be impeached with most Americans agreeing with impeachment?
Cus if the former, Gore probably wins. If the latter, then bush wins
 
My guess is that if Clinton steps down (as part of a plea agreement--so that Gore doesn't have to pardon him), Gore will win in 2000. Remember that President Gore only has to do very slightly better than candidate Gore did in OTL in order to win. In fact, just not returning Elian Gonzales to Cuba will probably be enough for him to carry FL and therefore the Electoral College. Even apart from that, simply being the incumbent president at a time of peace and prosperity will probably be enough. (Incumbency--even after a tougher primary challenge than Gore is likely to get, and in worse economic times, and with the burden of the Nixon pardon--was almost enough to elect Ford in 1976...)

Of course if Gore takes office before January 20, 1999 and wins in 2000, he will not be eligible for re-election in 2004.
 
Been working on a TL with this scenario.

There was a week in Jan ‘98 where basically everyone thought Clinton would resign, or at least WH aides were whispering about it.

Depending on the fallout, Bush may not even run in 2000. Gore is automatically termlimited. Bush could wait 4 years.
 
Depending on the fallout, Bush may not even run in 2000.

I think both Bush and McCain still run in 2000. Even if Gore is a popular incumbent he will be less popular than Clinton at his peak and after eight years of Democrats, as well as a major scandal and resignation, Republicans will be hungrier than ever for the White House. Bush would be foolish not to challenge Gore, but IMO Gore would narrowly prevail thanks to the good economy and the popularity bump he could get from leading the country during the Kosovo War. However, if butterflies lead to McCain's nomination in 2000 then I think he beats Gore.
 
Of course if Gore takes office before January 20, 1999 and wins in 2000, he will not be eligible for re-election in 2004.

At which point one can assume that 2004 will see Gore's VP (probably Lieberman) going up against McCain. If it's Lieberman vs McCain, then the latter probably wins.
 
If Gore takes office in 1998, how would his administration play out? Would he be able to accomplish anything with a Republican Congress? How does he handle foreign policy in the late 1990s?
 
Besides breaking 320+ EV, Bush wins the PV due to being able to bring up Lewinsky being embarassing enough to force resignation.

Incidently, you probably see an early afghanistan+Iraq war due to Gore's hawkishness combined with wanting to distract the public from Clinton's having resigned.
 
Besides breaking 320+ EV, Bush wins the PV due to being able to bring up Lewinsky being embarassing enough to force resignation.

Incidently, you probably see an early afghanistan+Iraq war due to Gore's hawkishness combined with wanting to distract the public from Clinton's having resigned.

I seriously doubt that. There was no casus belli for war before 2001, and Gore wasn't a war monger. Sure he was an internationalist, but that's different from being a neocon like Cheney or Rumsfeld.

And while I don't think Bush would win by over 320 EC votes, I agree that there is a chance he could win due to the recent scandal as well as Gore's own political weaknesses. At the same time, Gore now has incumbency advantage and he's presiding over a great economy. IMO 2000 is a toss up, but Gore has the edge.
 
Gore wins. He has the advantage of Incumbency during peace and prosperity and Bush's calls to restore "Honor and Dignity to the White House" won't stick as Gore would be untainted by the scandal and I doubt he'll be in a position of having to pardon Clinton.
 
Gore wins. He has the advantage of Incumbency during peace and prosperity and Bush's calls to restore "Honor and Dignity to the White House" won't stick as Gore would be untainted by the scandal and I doubt he'll be in a position of having to pardon Clinton.
OTL was a near-ASB level best case scenario for him in terms of campaign and he couldn't get those last 537 votes in florida. Being even more tied to Clinton's scandals means that we wouldn't have OTL's luck, so bush's calls to restore "Honor and Dignity" would get further.

honestly, mondale pulling an upset in 84 or mcgovern in 72 seem more plausible than gore in 2000 tbh
 
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