AHC: President Gary Hart

[Westbrook 49]

Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to make Gary Hart President in 1988. Avert the Donna Rice disaster, and whatever else might have made him self-destruct.

I'm really interested to see how this might end up.

 

[Coiler]

To get him to the White House (WARNING, I don't think too highly of Hart, so this is definitely biased):

-Handle the womanizing better. Have him "quit", and maybe admit to something in the past, but say it's beyond him and his family now if it is revealed. Sex scandals are not an automatic defeat, so it might blow over.

-Then, he has to deal with Dukakis, who knows how Mondale beat him in 1984 and will be running a similar strategy-shameless pandering to every Democratic interest group while portraying him as crazy. While Dukakis is-Dukakis in terms of charisma and campaigning skill, this might at least bloody Hart.

Hart has baggage beyond womanizing. You have William Lind, whose social views are rather--backwards, and for him to work for anyone, much less a Democratic presidential candidate, will be a big issue if found out. While this probably wouldn't be too big an issue in a flashy presidential campaign, a lot of his "new ideas" were shallow and gimmicky, and there's a chance a skilled opponent could exploit them.

Still, without Dukakis' clunkiness, he could win, given Bush Sr's own weaknesses. A running mate is unlikely to be a more conservative one like Bentsen-I can't think of any exact names, but I can see him repairing primary feuds with a more "normal" Democrat, maybe a geographically-balanced one.

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Once Bush Sr. concedes, the question is what Hart would do in office. A lot of his economic policy was old wine in new bottles, so I don't see it having much political or economic effect, especially after Congress gets its hands on it and makes it (even more) full of pure pork.

Defense is different, and depends on how hard he tries to push. I can see him backing down once he takes office and goes from being a critic to someone with real responsibility, i.e., when everyone in the Navy tells him that LHDs with Harriers are no match for supercarriers, he might back off. Best case is he can see what reforms have support from within the military itself and adopts a limited plan for those where he can win, worst case is he picks fights with them and Congress and loses.

Hart taking office might cause butterflies with the fall of the USSR and/or the Gulf War, so I won't mention those.

 

[Paul V McNutt]

Hart taking office might cause butterflies with the fall of the USSR and/or the Gulf War, so I won't mention those.[/QUOTE]
Oh Come on !!!! No matter who is president of the US the Soviet Union is still going to fall. Beating Bush in the good economic times of 1988 is the difficult part. Maybe have more damaged by Iran Contra.

 

[Paul V McNutt]

We get the Motor Voter Bill and the Brady Bill four years earlier.

 

[Derek Jackson]

VERY different Supreme Court. No Clarence Thomas

 

[Paul V McNutt]

VERY different Supreme Court. No Clarence Thomas

I am assuming that President Hart loses in the bad economic times of 1992. In his four years in the White House he gets four Supreme Court appointments. White, Marshall, Brennan and Blackmun retire. I am thinking he brings to the court Lawrence Tribe, Harry Edwards, Ruth Bader Ginsberg and Steven Breyer.

 

[Coiler]

I am assuming that President Hart loses in the bad economic times of 1992. In his four years in the White House he gets four Supreme Court appointments. White, Marshall, Brennan and Blackmun retire. I am thinking he brings to the court Lawrence Tribe, Harry Edwards, Ruth Bader Ginsberg and Steven Breyer.

1: You're giving him two exact Clinton appointments.
2: Unless the liberal justices retire earlier so that they can get a favorable successor or have a butterfly health issue, you're going to get only the two vacancies Bush Sr. did. No Thomas is going to change the Court a lot.
3: Depends on who the Republicans nominate/if Perot still runs and takes away more Republican votes.

 

[Westbrook 49]

VERY different Supreme Court. No Clarence Thomas

Absolutely! No Thomas confirmation hearing circus either.

I am assuming that President Hart loses in the bad economic times of 1992. In his four years in the White House he gets four Supreme Court appointments. White, Marshall, Brennan and Blackmun retire. I am thinking he brings to the court Lawrence Tribe, Harry Edwards, Ruth Bader Ginsberg and Steven Breyer.

Those are not bad choices at all.

1: You're giving him two exact Clinton appointments.
2: Unless the liberal justices retire earlier so that they can get a favorable successor or have a butterfly health issue, you're going to get only the two vacancies Bush Sr. did. No Thomas is going to change the Court a lot.

You would see a very different Supreme Court. Even if all Hart got was the OTL two seats that Bush had, which turned into David Souter and Clarence Thomas, it brings the Court in a very different direction.

But I believe he would get more.
Byron White, for all that he was a conservative on the Court, wanted his successor to be appointed by a Democrat, and Harry Blackmun I think would have wanted a liberal (Pro-choice) justice appointed to his seat as well.

Here are the candidates I can see President Hart appointing, in order of when they would be appointed:

-Amalya Lyle Kearse, Federal Judge, 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals, to replace Thurgood Marshall (Kearse would have been both the 2nd black and woman jurist appointed to the Court, and from all accounts, Marshall was just waiting for a Democrat so he could leave).

-Mario Cuomo, Governor of New York, to replace William Brennan (Cuomo would be amazing on the Court, and I think President Hart would be firmer in making the case for Cuomo as a Justice than Clinton was).

-Richard S. Arnold, Federal Judge, 8th Circuit Court of Appeals, to replace Byron White (Arnold was a nigh-unanimously beloved and respected judge. For evidence, look at the support he got when President Clinton was considering naming him to the Court in 1994. Arnold's lymphoma would be an issue, but I ultimately think it's one that would be overcome).

-Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Federal Judge, D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, to replace Harry Blackmun (Blackmun would probably retire late into the Hart Presidency, and Hart would need a nominee who could get through the Senate. Ginsburg had a moderate reputation on the D.C. Circuit, and was well-regarded as a Supreme Court advocate, so I could see her making it through the confirmation process fairly easily. In addition, that would put three women on the Court by the Nineties).

You could also switch Ginsburg and Arnold around in terms of when they are nominated.


That would definitely be an interesting Court!