AHC: President Ford gets credit for swine flu just-in-case.

In OTL, it was viewed as a bust and a laughingstock much like WIN buttons. But let's suppose this was different.

And not necessarily that the 1976 swine flu outbreak is more severe.

But rather people take the attitude, hey, given how serious the 1918-1919 flu pandemics were, may not be the worse idea in the world to jump on top of this thing quickly.
 
In OTL, was mocking Ford for over-reaction to Swine Flu really a thing?

I would have been about 7 or 8 when the panic hit, and I recall people being worried about it, but don't recall much about the aftermath. As far as I know, the only real negative thing people remembered about Ford was that he had pardoned Nixon, and also the vague idea that he was kind of a nobody.
 
If you haven't seen these already, you may find them interesting.

My own speculation is that it wouldn't be very likely that Ford would get a lot of credit for avoiding an epidemic, because when something bad is averted, people just take for granted that it didn't happen, don't worry too much about who to give the credit to.

I know everyone rags on Reagan, with some justification, for not doing enough about AIDS in the early days. But, let's be honest here, even if he had done something, would anyone remember it? Can anybody tell you at what point, and under which president, the government DID start taking a more active approach?
 
I can tell you this one. It's was Reagan's surgeon general Dr. C. Everett Koop. Yes, the man was conservative, but he was an honest conservative and he (Koop) took his responsibilities seriously.
 
The only way I could see Ford being praised for his actions are if the outbreak is worse and say, for example, New Jersey refuses to take part in the vaccines because of the possible neurological problems, and is hit by the outbreak far worse than the rest of the country which does fine. Then you have a clear case of what would of happened if Ford hadn't acted.

Without the outbreak being worse I'm not sure how Ford could get praise for his actions, unless their is an outbreak (swine flu or whatever) somewhere else in the world at the same time, that is worse.
 
Yes, you're right, a big challenge. Typically no one gets credit for the bridge which doesn't collapse.

When you say possible neurological problems, I'm assuming you're referring to Guillain Barre Syndrome (GBS), right? This is an auto-immune condition which can happen either from actual sickness from real live flu virus, or from the vaccine. And I think other viruses and/or vaccines, too.
 
I can tell you this one. It's was Reagan's surgeon general Dr. C. Everett Koop. Yes, the man was conservative, but he was an honest conservative and he (Koop) took his responsibilities seriously.

You're right, of course. I wasn't even thinking of Koop.

Still, though, outside of 80s political nostalgists, you wouldn't find a lot of people with any recollection of C. Everett Koop, much less his stance on AIDS. As exemplified by the fact that I, a certified 80s political nostalgist, neglected to consider him.

Also, I think Koop got a certain amount of attention because he was such a character, a big bear of a Dutch Calvinist cheerfully sermonizing away on the usage of condoms for anal sex. Had he just been Joe Average Bureaucrat, his crusade probably wouldn't have gotten the kind of publicity it did. It would have just been "Government increases response to AIDS".
 
The only way I could see Ford being praised for his actions are if the outbreak is worse and say, for example, New Jersey refuses to take part in the vaccines because of the possible neurological problems, and is hit by the outbreak far worse than the rest of the country which does fine. Then you have a clear case of what would of happened if Ford hadn't acted.

To spice it up a bit, maybe Ford uses some sort of constitutional/spending powers to coerce recalcitrant states into participating(not sure how possible that would be, though Reagan's later shenannigans on the drinking-age issue might provide a clue), and you've got Shootout At The Federalist Corral.

Best scenario for Ford's image: He fails to convince the holdout states to go along, and then those states suffer some highly publicized child deaths as a result, and Ford gets to wear the quietly-coveted Cassandra halo for a bit. (Sorry for the mixed metaphor).

I'm trying to come up with some parody of the FORD TO CITY: DROP DEAD headline that would work here, but not having much luck.
 
about HIV and the kind of public health there could have been:

ATL: in a press conference, Dr. Koop says, And we have to get past the idea that anal sex is only for gay men and straight women and only means penetration. Plenty of people, both gay and straight, both men and women, enjoy anal eroticism of various types. For example, I heard a sex educator recently say he and his partner enjoy teasing and pre-entering. I say, more power to them. And plenty of people don't particularly care for anal eroticism and that's perfectly normal, too. Both are normal.

That would have been something! A big bear of a Dutch Calvinist talking this way. I'm not sure Dr. C. Everett Koop even said the words "anal sex" out loud. If he did, it was just a mention and not any kind of preaching like the above.

I do remember a phrase in a commercial: barring abstinence, the best defense is the use of a condom.
This was either a condom company commercial or a public health commercial which seemed to run for a couple of months.

In the late Reagan years [1988], there was a pamphlet on HIV and AIDS mailed to every single household in America. It was really kind of remarkable.

https://profiles.nlm.nih.gov/ps/retrieve/Narrative/QQ/p-nid/87

In 1988, he mailed a congressionally-mandated information brochure on AIDS to every American household. As he recollected, during this period "AIDS took over my life." Through his report and his many speeches and interviews on AIDS Koop did more than any other public official to shift the terms of the public debate over AIDS from the moral politics of homosexuality, sexual promiscuity, and intravenous drug use, practices through which AIDS was spread, to concern with the medical care, economic position, and civil rights of AIDS sufferers. Similarly, Koop promoted redefining the prevalent scientific model of the disease, from a contagion akin to bubonic plague, yellow fever, and other deadly historic epidemics that required the strongest public health measures--mandatory testing and quarantine of carriers--to a chronic disease that was amenable to long-term management with drugs and behavioral changes.
And here is actual 8-page brochure:

PDF --> https://profiles.nlm.nih.gov/ps/access/QQBDRL.pdf

Este folleto sobre el SIDA se publica en Español.
Para solicitor una copia, llame al 1-800 . . .
 
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Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR)

Preliminary Results: Surveillance for Guillain-Barré Syndrome After Receipt of Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 Monovalent Vaccine --- United States, 2009--2010

Early Release
June 2, 2010 / 59(Early Release);1-5

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm59e0602a1.htm


"Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is an uncommon peripheral neuropathy causing paralysis and in severe cases respiratory failure and death. GBS often follows an antecedent gastrointestinal or upper respiratory illness but, in rare cases, can follow vaccination. In 1976, vaccination against a novel swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus was associated with a statistically significant increased risk for GBS in the 42 days after vaccination (approximately 10 excess cases per 1 million vaccinations), a consideration in halting the vaccination program in the context of limited influenza virus transmission [Emphasis added] (1). . . "
And it looks like these were the two biggest reasons the swine flu vaccination program was discontinued in 1976:

(1) an increase in the number of Guillain-Barre cases over expected baseline, although still pretty rare, and

(2) just not that many people were getting sick or seriously ill with swine flu, perhaps over general seasonal flu, although that incidence is still common of course.
 
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And the plot thickens:

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm59e0602a1.htm

" . . . Preliminary results from an analysis in EIP comparing GBS patients hospitalized through March 31, 2010, who did and did not receive 2009 H1N1 vaccination showed an estimated age-adjusted rate ratio of 1.77 (GBS incidence of 1.92 per 100,000 person-years among vaccinated persons and 1.21 per 100,000 person-years among unvaccinated persons). If end-of-surveillance analysis confirms this finding, this would correspond to 0.8 excess cases of GBS per 1 million vaccinations, similar to that found in seasonal influenza vaccines (2,3). . . "
I'm seeing approximately 0.8 excess cases per 100,000 vaccinations. 0.71 excess cases to be exact. I just don't get it.

Is there some big significant difference between person-years and vaccinations?
 
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