AHC: President Colin Powell

While I don't doubt that Powell could be elected President, I think that posters here are overstating the amount of support he'd get from the black community. Black voters are partisan Democrats for the most part; in races that have pitted black Republicans against white Democrats, the black Republican only gets a small bump from African American voters, with Democrats still winning the overwhelming majority of the black vote.

Powell would probably get 25% of the black vote. Better than the run-of-the-mill Republican, but nowhere near a majority.
 
All of us are making assumptions based on Powell's untested political skills. aAs National Secuity and Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, I doubt you have to suffer fools too often.You do speaking to small groups in Iowa and New Hampshire.
 
In 2000 the infamous Bush attacks on McCain in the South Carolina primaries turn against Bush, and McCain catches fire winning in South Carolina, Florida, and later the whole Republican primaries. The real moderate maverick that is 2000 McCain picks Powell as his VP. They win in a close election over Gore. McCain suffers a heart attack in 2003 and resigns, Powell is thrusted in the role of President in the midst of a war in Afghanistan and is reelected in 2004 over Edwards.
 
Bush makes Powell his VP in 1992, replacing Quayle, getting Powell on board by reminding him Clinton is a draft dodger. Powell runs in 1996 and wins.
 

stalkere

Banned
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My dream ticket would be "Powell-Rice"
Condelezza Rice's biggest accomplishment is her participation in the massive stupidity of the Iraq war.

Wow. really?

More like her failure to stop the frigging ocean of stupid with a couple of sandbags of intelligence.

And some injections of "smart" which failed to take in a roomful of yes-men who were convinced of their absolute correctness.

You can stand outside and bitch uselessly, and you can try to stay inside the machine and try to fix it before it crashes.

She ultimately failed, but in my estimation, that does not take away from the nobility of the effort.

Of course, you might be one of the typical types that think that EVERYBODY inside the White house was a "group think" person - and you'd be generally right, gotta agree with you there.

But that's the usual situation. Powell and Rice were two examples of folks that tried -hard- to buck the system intelligently, and get things fixed.

My personal feeling is that Powell bailed on W after too many fights and head-butting sessions. Some of that was even recorded by the media, you can look it up. I was a Staff Officer, and making trips to that place on a regular basis, with a lot of personal friends on staff there.

you can get in some interesting discussions without -quite-violating security. But we had a lot of -"read between the lines" observations.

I WISH - fervently - I could think of a single example in the current White House that comes close...it's been my observation that the "groupthink" effect is worse in Democratic Presidencies than in Republican ones.

But the only ones I had personal observation of, were the the first Bush, the two Clinton terms and the other first Bush term...GWH's people seemed to have some pretty good debates and discussion. But my observation of the Clinton times seemed to be pretty much - follow the line or else...and sometimes, it got damned hard to figure out where the damned line was...but the same could be said of W, except that the lines CHANGED...
 

stalkere

Banned
President Powell would avoid Iraq

Almost certainly - containment was his repeated watchword. He continually advised caution on that one.

A Powell Presidency in 2000 might - maybe - be in time to fix the Intell structure to prevent 9/11...although I sincerely doubt it. It was that incredibly messed up...and I say that as somebody who had an inside view.

Maybe, maybe not. He takes office in January, so he has less than 9 months to get competant people paying attention to the right things...although he was/is a damn fine organizer, so maybe....

Afghan invasion and ISAF is almost certainly going to follow 9/11, guaranteed...but it will be handled a lot differently...and a President that speaks Arabic Fluently? - you cannot imagine what a difference that could make...I have the feeling it would make a HUGE difference.

The same thing in Iraq. Powell as President - well, I did not like Chalabi and those guys with him - and I got the impression that Powell did not either. Powell as President? - Chalabi and his cronies would be...handled politely...and probably massaged to get the impression that they were considered important. But nobody in a Powell White House would be listening to them much...

Even if Powell did invade Iraq? - well - if I recall correctly, he was of the opinion that it should be three countries, seperated on ethnic lines. another one of his ideas that got overruled, but I thought it had a lot of merit.
 
I don't think Powell winning is near the slam dunk many here seem to think it is. Certainly he would be a contender and difficult candidate to run against, but even if he did run in '96 and won the Republican nomination, it would be shortsighted to underestimate Clinton's ability to campaign and win over voters.

Clinton was/is a skilled campaigner and I don't know if Powell would be. He seems very reserved, very quiet and maybe that would benefit him in an overall race, however, Clinton would have advantages as well:

Peace - We were not at war. Powell would be the type of leader you'd want to lead a nation that was bogged down in conflict (Eisenhower & the Korean War) - but we were at relative peace with the world. We were the lone Super Power. Terrorism was hardly something Americans worried about in the 90s.

Economic growth - Clinton entered his presidency during a recession and by '96, the growth of the economy even outpaced many of the administration's own expectations. Sure, a good portion of economic expansion was still to come - but by 1996, unemployment was lower, the deficit cut and jobs were being created at a pretty substantial pace.

Those are huge hurdles for any candidate to overcome.

I think '96 would have definitely been closer had Powell won the nomination over Dole - but I think Clinton inevitably wins for the reasons I suggested above and the likely nasty primary battle we would have seen on the Republican side had Powell contested the nomination. As some have mentioned already, Powell was very moderate, if not liberal, in many of his positions.

There would have been a battle and Clinton would've benefited.
 
A
Afghan invasion and ISAF is almost certainly going to follow 9/11, guaranteed...but it will be handled a lot differently...and a President that speaks Arabic Fluently? - you cannot imagine what a difference that could make...I have the feeling it would make a HUGE difference.
'Well, it'd help if he'd also speak Farsi, for one.
 
I don't think Powell winning is near the slam dunk many here seem to think it is. Certainly he would be a contender and difficult candidate to run against, but even if he did run in '96 and won the Republican nomination, it would be shortsighted to underestimate Clinton's ability to campaign and win over voters.

Clinton was/is a skilled campaigner and I don't know if Powell would be. He seems very reserved, very quiet and maybe that would benefit him in an overall race, however, Clinton would have advantages as well:

Peace - We were not at war. Powell would be the type of leader you'd want to lead a nation that was bogged down in conflict (Eisenhower & the Korean War) - but we were at relative peace with the world. We were the lone Super Power. Terrorism was hardly something Americans worried about in the 90s.

Economic growth - Clinton entered his presidency during a recession and by '96, the growth of the economy even outpaced many of the administration's own expectations. Sure, a good portion of economic expansion was still to come - but by 1996, unemployment was lower, the deficit cut and jobs were being created at a pretty substantial pace.

Those are huge hurdles for any candidate to overcome.

I think '96 would have definitely been closer had Powell won the nomination over Dole - but I think Clinton inevitably wins for the reasons I suggested above and the likely nasty primary battle we would have seen on the Republican side had Powell contested the nomination. As some have mentioned already, Powell was very moderate, if not liberal, in many of his positions.

There would have been a battle and Clinton would've benefited.

Maybe "Black Hawk Down" doesn't happen, and Clinton gets significantly more bogged down in Somalia, with the war becoming more of a campaign issue? With that, as well as a growing crisis in the Balkans, a soft-spoken, moderate former general who would also be America's first black president would be a shoe-in.
 
Once again if Powell wins the Republican nomination his views on abortion alienates much of the Republican base. There would be a social conservative third party and many social conservative no shows. I think the fact in 1996 a guy who had never run for office has to run against a master politico. SLCer is right it would not Have been a slam dunk.
 
Once again if Powell wins the Republican nomination his views on abortion alienates much of the Republican base. There would be a social conservative third party and many social conservative no shows. I think the fact in 1996 a guy who had never run for office has to run against a master politico will have a difficult time. SLCer is right it would not Have been a slam dunk.
 
Afghan invasion and ISAF is almost certainly going to follow 9/11, guaranteed...but it will be handled a lot differently...and a President that speaks Arabic Fluently? - you cannot imagine what a difference that could make...I have the feeling it would make a HUGE difference.
Powell speaks Arabic fluently? I did not know, would you have a source for that?
 
Here is my attempt at a semi-unrealistic timeline.

After three years of Bill Clinton in office, Colin Powell had generally refused to run for the President of the United States. His successes as the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the National Security Advisor in the Reagan administration had made him a favorite for the Republicans, particularly among the moderates who feared the selection of a radical Republican during the primaries in 1996. Dole was a major front-runner, but Powell was still ahead in general for polls for the primaries. Powell in July 1995 announced his intention to run for the President of the United States after nearly being drafted by base Republicans. Dole, Powell, and Pete Wilson (Who never got throat surgery, allowing his campaign to take off). Dole surged in the early primaries, but after Wilson dropped out and endorsed Powell, and the endorsement from John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, and many other moderate Republicans, Powell won the Republican primaries and the nomination. He selected John McCain to be his running mate.

Powell/McCain quickly became a popular ticket for moderates on both sides of the political spectrum. For older Republicans, Powell reminded them of Eisenhower, while younger Republicans thought of Powell as a modern Nelson Rockefeller. They ran on a fiscally conservative and socially liberal (Or socially centrist) platform during the campaign against Clinton. Powell particularly attacked Clinton, calling him a "Draft Dodger". Powell's support from moderates won him many states in New England, his native New York, and New Jersey, but his socially liberal/centrist views lost him votes to Ross Perot in the south (Leading to some states going to Clinton/Gore). Powell won the Presidential election by just a small margin.

genusmap.php

Colin Powell (R-NY) and John S. McCain (R-AZ): 277 EV (50%)
William J. Clinton (D-AK) and Al Gore (D-TN): 261 EV (47%)

Powell took office as President of the United States on January 20th, 1996, becoming the first African-American President. Powell selected a bipartisan Cabinet, selecting several Democrats for major key positions in his administration, saying that "Party opinions end on the lawn", wishing for an administration with a wide variety of opinions. The highest ranking Democrat in the Powell Administration was Secretary of State John Kerry, a Democrat from Massachusetts. It was rumored that Al Gore was offered the position initially, but he refused. The Powell Administration quickly took action against NAFTA, as well as taking action in Yugoslavia throughout 1999 and 2000 to take action against the ethnic cleansing in the area. Powell also sought to reform the United States military by training for small-scale operations rather than large-scale operations (Which would come in use later on). During Powell's first term, his Administration had immense public support, and support from both Democrats and Republicans in the Congress. By the 2000 election season, the economy was improving greatly, and things seemed good for Powell/McCain. The Democrats had nominated Paul Wellstone to run against Powell/McCain. Wellstone chose Dick Gephardt as his running mate for the 2000 election.

The 2000 election was a massive electoral landslide for Powell, as well as one of the largest popular vote landslides in American history. Powell's moderate campaign had stolen the moderate vote from the Democrats, but this left the conservatives in the south somewhat angered by Powell's moderate views on abortion and gun control. He lost Mississippi and Arkansas as a result, but won the election otherwise.

genusmap.php

Colin Powell (R-NY) and John S. McCain (R-AZ): 501 EV (60%)
Paul Wellstone (D-MN) and Dick Gephardt (D-MO): 37 EV (38%)

The second term of the Powell Administration saw many changes for the world. Less than a year into his second term, the United States was attacked by terrorists from Al-Qaeda. 3500 Americans were killed when planes crashed into the World Trade Center, Pentagon, and the United States Capitol Building. 2 Senators and 8 Representatives who were near the crash site during an evacuation of major officials in the city were killed. Powell's approval rating skyrocketed following the attacks, leading the United States into the first major war of the 21st century. The United States invaded Afghanistan in December 2001, overthrowing the Taliban and using small-unit operations to wipe out Taliban resistance. A major occupation force was set up from 2001-2005, and a pullout of most US troops occurred by 2005. Another issue was that of Syria, which had supported a terrorist group that attacked London and Boston in 2003. While Iraq also supported the group, Powell wanted to contain Iraq, while intervening in Syria. In late 2003, the United States, NATO, and several other countries invaded Syria, once again setting up a provisional government, and pulling out within four years time. In 2004, two weeks before the Presidential election, Osama Bin Laden was killed along the Pakistani border by United States special forces.

The 2004 Presidential election was a quick one for the Republicans, or at least selecting their candidate. Rudy Giuliani, the Mayor of New York City during 9/11, and the Governor of New York State since 2003, was quickly selected as the nominee, selecting Tom Tancredo as his Vice Presidential nominee. The Democrats selected Gary Hart as their Presidential nominee. He chose John Edwards as his Vice Presidential nominee. Rudy Giuliani, largely being carried by support from Colin Powell's Presidency, won the 2004 Presidential election.

genusmap.php

Rudy Giuliani (R-NY) and Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.): 482 EV (55%)
Gary Hart (D-Colo.) and John Edwards (D-NC): 56 EV (44%)

Rudy Giuliani, like Powell, selected a bipartisan cabinet, choosing Joe Lieberman as his Secretary of State. Giuliani continued with the same initial popularity that Powell had. The War in Afghanistan was coming to a complete end by early 2006, and the War in Syria was finishing up as well. Osama Bin Laden was dead, but Saddam Hussein was becoming a greater thorn in the side of the United States. Rudy Giuliani would continue on with a second term, winning in 2008 with a much smaller margin than he did in 2004. The Republican party had largely become a more moderate party, leading to the Democrats by 2007 starting to move to the center, with the Democrats regaining support in the south, while the Republicans started to once again dominate the north and the west coast.
 
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