AHC: Post-USSR Islamic Governments In Central Asia

Can Islamic governments (either as repressive as Iran or semi-democratic as Pakistan or democratic if Tunisia counts) take over the Central Asian republics and Azerbaijan after the fall of the USSR and supersede and secular governments there? What would need to happen? And what would the region look like?
 
Maybe if Pakistani General Zia lived longer? He might have wanted to push his Islamist message in Central Asia, like he did in Afghanistan. Also Perhaps if the Russians attempted something like Chechnya to the Central Asian states it would have helped to radicalize them.
 
Can Islamic governments (either as repressive as Iran or semi-democratic as Pakistan or democratic if Tunisia counts) take over the Central Asian republics and Azerbaijan after the fall of the USSR and supersede and secular governments there? What would need to happen? And what would the region look like?

Well, for 24 years, Central Asian despots (Ex KP bosses turned kleptocratic oligarchs ) are cracking down low level insurgencies of that kind and any opposition .
 
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IRP wins Tajik Civil War is the best bet for any Islamist government, but it's not on the level of the Taliban. Other than that very little chance, Central Asia is much less radical than other parts if tge Muslim world. Maybe in Uzbekistan if you wank tge IMU which is like the Taliban but it's very doubtful they coukd gain or hold real power.
 

Pesigalam

Banned
For that to occur the Russian domestic situation will need to be far worse, otherwise Russia will without a doubt intervene.
Considering that Russians at the time couldn't defeat Chechnya, I don't think Russian intervention, even assuming it would occur, is some sort of "I WIN" button for the Tajik authorities.
 
Since post-Soviet governments were able to crush Islamist movements the only way they can get into power is through a civil war in the USSR that leads to its collapse which thereby leads to chaotic shenanigans.
 
Considering that Russians at the time couldn't defeat Chechnya, I don't think Russian intervention, even assuming it would occur, is some sort of "I WIN" button for the Tajik authorities.

Their intervention alone is not a guarantee of success, but the Tajik government is more likely to win with their involvement.

The 1994 involvement in Chechnya is a great example of how not to conduct a counter insurgency operation, in saying that the Russians learnt and come 1999 it was entirely different.
 
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