AHC:Possible Allies of CSA

[Nietzsche]

I'm no expert on this time-period, but I don't think nations, other than for the European power balance, think this way. This is way too global of thinking, too early. The US or Confederacy isn't going to be looking for an ally to divide the world together with.

You're right, they don't tend to think in those terms. But in the case of Germany and the US, if France intervenes in the Civil War and causes the Rebels to, well, remain a country, they both have an enemy they hate with the power of a million suns going super-nova at once.

Gravity is not the most powerful force in the universe. Mutual hate is.

 

[PariahNihil]

You're right, they don't tend to think in those terms. But in the case of Germany and the US, if France intervenes in the Civil War and causes the Rebels to, well, remain a country, they both have an enemy they hate with the power of a million suns going super-nova at once.

Gravity is not the most powerful force in the universe. Mutual hate is.

US-German axis. Sounds like T-191.

 

[Badshah]

Confederacy would maybe get Brazil. They certainly don't have the strength to monitor Mexico for France....in that case, they're whupped by Mexico. As it is, IMO, it would become a banana republic.

 

[oshron]

Confederacy would maybe get Brazil.

as a note, after the ACW, a notable number of ex-Confederates actually emigrated to Sao Paulo in Brazil, becoming their own little immigrant ethnic group known as Confederados

 

[Fiver]

If the CSA won,who will be likely their allies?

In period, allies were typically short-term cooperation among countries who had a common interest during a war or defensive alliances. Even those were seldom long-term military alliances. In general, I'd expect the Confederacy to avoid alliances with major powers for fear of becoming a client state.

OTOH, many Confederate leaders believed continual expansion was necessary to maintain their prosperity. Winning their independence against a larger, more populous, more industrialized foe would probably increase Confederate beliefs in their own superiority. Confederate attempts at expansionism could lead to alliances against CSA aggression, but are unlikely to gain them any allies.

 

[Fiver]

This is very true, and will be at the top of any Confederate government's mind, always, but the US still isn't going to be raring for a fight for at least a couple decades unless the Confederacy looks weak or acts aggressively.

It's very unlikely the Confederacy will not to look weak or act aggressively in the first couple decades. Odds are strong that the Confederacy will at least threaten aggression against the US, Mexico, Central America, Cuba, or other parts of the Caribbean. Odds are also strong that any significant internal conflict among the Confederate states will lead to threatened or actual secession from the Confederacy or even an internal civil war.

 

[Nietzsche]

Confederacy would maybe get Brazil. They certainly don't have the strength to monitor Mexico for France....in that case, they're whupped by Mexico. As it is, IMO, it would become a cotton republic.

Fixed that for you.

 

[Anaxagoras]

Fixed that for you.

To be fair, cotton is much more important the 19th Century global economy than are bananas.

 

[Nietzsche]

To be fair, cotton is much more important the 19th Century global economy than are bananas.

Unless I've been doing something wrong for the entirety of my life, cotton clothing is still of more global importance than bananas.

 

[zoomar]

If the CSA won,who will be likely their allies?

If the CSA wins independence without the direct involvement/intervention of European powers, it is unlikely the CSA will have any real allies in the modern sense of a military alliance. For one thing this would almost certainly be one of the demands the USA would make in any peace treaty. For another, there is not a single major European nation with worldwide pretentions (other than possibly Spain) who would consider forming a permanent alliance with a slave-holding CSA.

Obviously, if a European state (most likely GB or France) actually enters the ACW on the side of the CSA, then Turtledove's canon makes as much sense as anything else.