AHC:Possible Allies of CSA

[iddt3]

I know this sounds a little strange, but what if the Germans became their allies at some point?

I think Turtledove got this right, if anyone is going to ally with Germany its going to be the USA, not the CSA. Germany, as a European land power, has little to offer the CSA

 

[Anaxagoras]

I think Turtledove got this right, if anyone is going to ally with Germany its going to be the USA, not the CSA. Germany, as a European land power, has little to offer the CSA

It also has little to offer the USA.

 

[BELFAST]

Once the CSA wins, do they really need allies, as opposed to just trading partners? After that much of a loss, the US isn't going to be attacking unless there's a sign of significant weakness on the CSA's part, and there's absolutely nothing else in the neighborhood that would be a military threat to the CSA. The USA did just fine for 50+ years without any actual allies, why does the CSA need them?

Good point.
Unless the CSA is a war again it only needs trading partners.

 

[BELFAST]

You're correct that any abolition of slavery in the Confederacy would certainly be followed by some sort of apartheid system. But even getting to abolition will take decades. Southern culture had long since tossed away the Jeffersonian idea that slavery was a necessary evil in favor of considering it a positive good. Besides, the Confederate Constitution made it almost impossible to abolish slavery even if the large majority of the Confederate population wanted to.

you might have an apartheid system even before slavery ends.
The apartheid could apply to the free Black in the CSA.
Slavery might end without government action if it became cheaper to employ paid labour rather than owning slaves.
Depends on how many poor European immigrants enter the CSA who are desperate for work.

 

[Anaxagoras]

Slavery might end without government action if it became cheaper to employ paid labour rather than owning slaves.

That was probably already the case before the war, but the population of slaves kept increasing anyway.

Depends on how many poor European immigrants enter the CSA who are desperate for work.

Few would come. They'd go to the North to find work in the big, industrial cities. I can see some European immigrants going to Texas, where there was still lots of open land, but not to the Deep South.

 

[mowque]

It also has little to offer the USA.

If this is the full Turtledove, then it can offer a counter balance to the UK and France.

 

[Nietzsche]

The USA and the UK worked together on several issues. Maybe not allies but mild friends, surely?

I think it's more akin to you and the neighbor you hate agreeing to a cease-fire to solve a mutual problem.

 

[Nietzsche]

I think Turtledove got this right, if anyone is going to ally with Germany its going to be the USA, not the CSA. Germany, as a European land power, has little to offer the CSA

It also has little to offer the USA.

Mm, it has little to offer, but its position in the dead-center of Europe, between all the Great Powers, is invaluable. Not to mention German industrial production. Between the USA and Germany, you have control of nearly half the worlds production of steel. That's power.

 

[Anaxagoras]

If this is the full Turtledove, then it can offer a counter balance to the UK and France.

It just seems to me that the leaders of the United States would decide that an alliance with Germany does more harm than good to United States interests. It creates the serious possibility that the United States would be drawn into a war with Britain, France, and the CSA, and any counterbalance to a probably overblown British and French threat is poor compensation for that. I would also expect domestic political opposition against the perception that the United States had become a puppet of the German Empire.

 

[Simon]

I suspect the Monroe Doctrine is history considering that the USA would be weakened then.

For all of it being called the Monroe Doctrine IIRC it was originally a British idea with a suggestion of a joint Anglo-American announcement of it but the Americans decided to announce it by themselves. Since they didn't have the power to enforce the doctrine it fell to the Royal Navy to do so instead. I think they would probably have to let Napoleon III's Mexican adventure slide but in South America proper they're not going to like people trying to monkey around with things, especially since their merchants and traders controlled the commerce down there to an amazing degree.

 

[Nietzsche]

For all of it being called the Monroe Doctrine IIRC it was originally a British idea with a suggestion of a joint Anglo-American announcement of it but the Americans decided to announce it by themselves. Since they didn't have the power to enforce the doctrine it fell to the Royal Navy to do so instead. I think they would probably have to let Napoleon III's Mexican adventure slide but in South America proper they're not going to like people trying to monkey around with things, especially since their merchants and traders controlled the commerce down there to an amazing degree.

Close. The Monroe Doctrine was put in place by the US without the consent or advisement of Britain. It was just a case of two foreign policies having similar goals.

Had Britain not held that same goal, the Monroe Doctrine would've been about as effective as toilet paper.

 

[MerryPrankster]

I'd expect people to start muttering how it was "meant to be" as soon as the South successfully separates itself from the rest of the country. Reconquest isn't going to be on the table, at least at first.

Why? Especially if it's a near-run thing.

As generations pass and the status quo solidifies that'd be one thing (think Korea today with some younger people not wanting to bother with reunification), but immediately afterward, I doubt it.

 

[mowque]

Between the USA and Germany, you have control of nearly half the worlds production of steel. That's power.

Half? They wish.

My source here says that out of 26.5 millions tons of iron and steel made in 1900, 16.6 million were made in Germany and the USA.

In 1910 it is far worse. Out of a global production of 56.49 millions tons, the USA/Germany produced over 40 million tons.

To put it in scale, when Morgan bought Carnegie Steel in 1902, that company made more steel then the ENITRE British Empire.

 

[Nietzsche]

Half? They wish.

My source here says that out of 26.5 millions tons of iron and steel made in 1900, 16.6 million were made in Germany and the USA.

In 1910 it is far worse. Out of a global production of 56.49 millions tons, the USA/Germany produced over 40 million tons.

To put it in scale, when Morgan bought Carnegie Steel in 1902, that company made more steel then the ENITRE British Empire.

..damn. And here I thought I was aiming high.

 

[Tripwire]

Mm, it has little to offer, but its position in the dead-center of Europe, between all the Great Powers, is invaluable. Not to mention German industrial production. Between the USA and Germany, you have control of nearly half the worlds production of steel. That's power.

I'm no expert on this time-period, but I don't think nations, other than for the European power balance, think this way. This is way too global of thinking, too early. The US or Confederacy isn't going to be looking for an ally to divide the world together with.

It just seems to me that the leaders of the United States would decide that an alliance with Germany does more harm than good to United States interests. It creates the serious possibility that the United States would be drawn into a war with Britain, France, and the CSA, and any counterbalance to a probably overblown British and French threat is poor compensation for that. I would also expect domestic political opposition against the perception that the United States had become a puppet of the German Empire.

Anaxagoras has got it. The US at this point in its OTL history, is heavily isolationist as far as military alliances go. The last thing they want is to get dragged into conflicts on far-away continents. They'll go to war if it suits them, like in WWI, but they're not going to set themselves up for it. The only reason they would be seeking allies would be as support against the CSA, and Germany would be a very poor fit for that. The only alliances either the CSA or USA are going to be seeking, if they're seeking them at all, is going to be with powers in or with turf in the Americas.

 

[Laplace's Demon]

I think foreign alliances would be important for the CSA in terms of having a country to help them industrialize, loan them money, and for them to base their military off of. The US could arguably be said to have never left the British financial sphere, I can see the CSA being in bed with French bankers and in love with the French military ideal until Napoleon III is gone and the Second Empire of Mexico falls, by which time the German military and industrial model would probably be looking very good.

There might also be more potential for Latin American allies than the bluster of the firebreathers over a Tropical Empire might suggest. Considering the CSA's existence alone provokes the United States, being able to challenge US hegemony in the Americas would look more like it would lead to stalemate than to triggering a conflict that could already be triggered by any number of border incidents. Also, control of Florida means lots of potential deepwater ports for European ships and in convenient range of the Caribbean.

Back on the subject of Germany, the German model is more accessible to the Confederacy potentially than you imagine: Belief in superior Protestant work-ethic and a highly federalized national structure with sovereign kingdoms/states making up a larger union (considering the Great War era German army still was made up of the armies of the major German kingdoms, that's translatable to the states-rights heavy CSA constitution, isn't it?).

The Confederacy could be Germany's route to challenging American industry for Latin American markets and challenging the British navy for control of the Caribbean. It wouldn't take a massive tropical empire, just a Miami-like port to be constructed in Florida and the probable possession of Cuba.

 

[NothingNow]

There might also be more potential for Latin American allies than the bluster of the firebreathers over a Tropical Empire might suggest. Considering the CSA's existence alone provokes the United States, being able to challenge US hegemony in the Americas would look more like it would lead to stalemate than to triggering a conflict that could already be triggered by any number of border incidents. Also, control of Florida means lots of potential deepwater ports for European ships and in convenient range of the Caribbean.

Assuming the USN doesn't hold Key West, which is just as effective as holding the rest of Florida, but far easier.

The Confederacy could be Germany's route to challenging American industry for Latin American markets and challenging the British navy for control of the Caribbean. It wouldn't take a massive tropical empire, just a Miami-like port to be constructed in Florida and the probable possession of Cuba.

Yeah, they'd never be able to hold Cuba (as we've gone over a thousand times, and decided it's pretty much the one thing that would utterly break the CSA,) and said port already existed in Tampa, the most anti-confederate city in the South.

Also, the local squadrons of the Royal Navy, Spanish Navy, or even the USN at it's nadir could individually utterly devastate any fleet the CSN could afford.

 

[Anaxagoras]

I think foreign alliances would be important for the CSA in terms of having a country to help them industrialize, loan them money, and for them to base their military off of. The US could arguably be said to have never left the British financial sphere, I can see the CSA being in bed with French bankers and in love with the French military ideal until Napoleon III is gone and the Second Empire of Mexico falls, by which time the German military and industrial model would probably be looking very good.

An interesting point regarding the French bankers. IOTL, the only major loan the Confederates got was from the Erlanger firm in France. Of course, the bonds themselves were sold in London and Amsterdam as well as in Paris.

Regarding Confederate industrialization, it's impossible to escape the fact that the Confederate Constitution essentially renders the Confederate government powerless to promote industrialization as a matter of national policy.

 

[anarchjoe]

Personally having considered a TL on the subject I think it would either go massively isolationist and a tad impoverished until a millitary coup/revolution/annexation by the U.S or alternately it becomes a French or British puppet possibly creating rivalry between the 2 nations. I say this because it's currency seemed to run at a massive hyperinflation and it would presumably have to be bailed out by either British or french banks if it did manage to secede.

 

[RamscoopRaider]

I'm no expert on this time-period, but I don't think nations, other than for the European power balance, think this way. This is way too global of thinking, too early. The US or Confederacy isn't going to be looking for an ally to divide the world together with.

Anaxagoras has got it. The US at this point in its OTL history, is heavily isolationist as far as military alliances go. The last thing they want is to get dragged into conflicts on far-away continents. They'll go to war if it suits them, like in WWI, but they're not going to set themselves up for it. The only reason they would be seeking allies would be as support against the CSA, and Germany would be a very poor fit for that. The only alliances either the CSA or USA are going to be seeking, if they're seeking them at all, is going to be with powers in or with turf in the Americas.

In OTL history you are correct, however in OTL the US won the Civil War and no one pissed it off excessively

ITTL, with a good chance of the US reacting to the loss with a sense of betrayal and revanchism, they may not want all the CSA back but they will want parts of it, and probably revenge on those who helped the CSA win (France and UK)

Allying with France and the UK, the countries that probably were responsible for recognizing the CSA, is likely political suicide (imagine France making anything but a temporary alliance of convenience with Germany 1870-1914)

Nations aren't always rational and revenge is a powerful motivator, especially at the time