AHC: Portuguese Hainan

[AltoRegnant]

Portugal has three very important distinctions in the age of exploration: starting it, reaching India before any other european, and the only European territory in China prior to the 19th century; Macau. But Macau was still only one city, and what's a city to a massive island? Your goal, with a POD before the 19th century, and preferably before the 18th, is for Portugal to control the island of Hainan and be the premier maritime order in the gulf of tonkin.

• What does this mean for china as a whole? Does europe start chowing down?
• Indochina?
• What are the knock on effects for Portugal?
• Could Portugal use this to dominate vietnam or the Guangxi province?
• How does this Portuguese China interact with the rest of the empire?

 

[Mister Mister]

Not sure that: a) Portugal is strong enough to take something so bih from China before 19th century, b) that China would/could allow iz before 19th century, c) that Portugal has need to have something as big, they can trade with Macao as well, if not better

 

[Phalamus]

Yeah... I don't really see it. It's too big and offers nothing that Macau doesn't.

Also, it's important to keep in mind that Ming allowed Portugal to lease Macau as a reward for fighting pirates, it wasn't taken by force. No European power can conceivably win a war with China before the 19th century.

Given that I don't see China voluntarily ceding something as big as Hainan, I really don't see a way to make this happen...

 

[Northstar]

Yeah... I don't really see it. It's too big and offers nothing that Macau doesn't.

Also, it's important to keep in mind that Ming allowed Portugal to lease Macau as a reward for fighting pirates, it wasn't taken by force. No European power can conceivably win a war with China before the 19th century.

Given that I don't see China voluntarily ceding something as big as Hainan, I really don't see a way to make this happen...

I just did a very brief bit of Googling related to Hainan. it's apparently the size of Belgium, so pretty hefty.

On your points, if Hainan is an island and the Ming needed help fighting pirates, surely that means that the Ming's navy was weak and therefore if the Portuguese took the island and prevented the Ming from landing troops by using the Portuguese navy, then the Ming wouldn't be able to take it back and would just need to solidify their rule?

Northstar

 

[Cattette]

On your points, if Hainan is an island and the Ming needed help fighting pirates, surely that means that the Ming's navy was weak and therefore if the Portuguese took the island and prevented the Ming from landing troops by using the Portuguese navy, then the Ming wouldn't be able to take it back and would just need to solidify their rule?

The Portugese navy, while impressive, could likely not sustain a blockade of all of China on the other side of the Earth. Macau would be swiftly taken from Portugal and Portugal would be granted no voluntary access to the Chinese market, they would effectively become the pirates that they sought to destroy in our TL. The Chinese would likely be able to break out eventually and retake Hainan, if it already hasn't revolted from the Portugese, especially considering the short distance from Hainan to the mainland.

 

[Phalamus]

I just did a very brief bit of Googling related to Hainan. it's apparently the size of Belgium, so pretty hefty.

On your points, if Hainan is an island and the Ming needed help fighting pirates, surely that means that the Ming's navy was weak and therefore if the Portuguese took the island and prevented the Ming from landing troops by using the Portuguese navy, then the Ming wouldn't be able to take it back and would just need to solidify their rule?

Northstar

They would surely be able to take it back, that's not even a question. The Portuguese navy was naturally far more technologically advanced than the Ming one, but there's no way the Ming can't just beat them by sheer strength of numbers. Portugal in the 16th/17th/18th century is not Britain in the 19th. They aren't going to be taking any territory in China unless China lets them.

And besides that, if it isn't to trade with China (which pressuposes good relations) what would even be the point of taking territory in China?

 

[Aghasverov]

Always have thought it a bit odd that an island the size of, and as strategically located as Hainan, was basically bypassed by most of history. Even the Chinese neglected it, as they did Taiwan for most of its history...

 

[stevej713]

Always have thought it a bit odd that an island the size of, and as strategically located as Hainan, was basically bypassed by most of history. Even the Chinese neglected it, as they did Taiwan for most of its history...

I think it's because China never really was a true maritime power, and yet it will naturally dominate its own shoreline. As others have said, China has acted like its own separate planet throughout much of its history.