AHC: Poland-the Kurdistan of Europe

With a POD of 1900, you’r challenge is to make Poland be divided by at lest 2 countries into the modern day. The most odvious to me are Germany and Russia holding onto their polish territory, but is it possible to have other scenarios? Maybe a Czechoslovakia controlling the southern part of Poland, Germany in the west, and Russia in the east (is it possible for Belarus and Ukraine to also get involved with Russia still having a claim in Poland through winning East Prussia in WW2?)
 

Ian_W

Banned
The obvious one is Czarist Russia winning WW1, resulting in Poland staying Russian.

At that point, you have a bunch of butterflies - do you get Nazis without the Russian Revolution, for example.
 
If the Russians somehow win World War 1, wouldn't it have suffered massive casualties and be incapable of holding onto Poland? In fact, you could see a postwar collapse of the Russian Empire similarly to the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the non-Russian provinces (such as Poland or Ukraine) breaking away from Great Russia.
 

The Avenger

Banned
The obvious one is Czarist Russia winning WW1, resulting in Poland staying Russian.

At that point, you have a bunch of butterflies - do you get Nazis without the Russian Revolution, for example.
That won't work since you'd see both Germany and Austria lost their Polish territories to Russia. Plus, if Czarist Russia eventually liberalizes, it could still eventually end up losing Poland.

Avoid WWI send it's pretty much what would happen.
It's hard for Russia to keep Poland if it liberalizes. However, Germany and A-H could keep their Polish parts to the present-day--in A-H's case, if it avoids revolution in the 20th and 21st centuries.

If the Russians somehow win World War 1, wouldn't it have suffered massive casualties and be incapable of holding onto Poland? In fact, you could see a postwar collapse of the Russian Empire similarly to the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the non-Russian provinces (such as Poland or Ukraine) breaking away from Great Russia.
Poland could certainly break away from Russia in this TL, but Ukraine would be less likely since Russia would be much less likely to tolerate it in the long-run.
 
The obvious one is Czarist Russia winning WW1, resulting in Poland staying Russian.

At that point, you have a bunch of butterflies - do you get Nazis without the Russian Revolution, for example.

Maybe you don't need nazis to carve poland between czarist russia and germany, im sure a militarist equivalent might be open to the idea in tge right circumstances
 
So let’s say WW1 is avoided, and Russia and Germany hold onto their policy territory. Is it possible for a Czechoslovakia to get polish territory or even Hungary if the AH collapses?

Unlikely. Both those nations are already holding down a large enough bubbling pot of minority resentment to be capable of adding the burden of any substantial Polish territory.
 
The CP win WWI by 1915 (the UK is distracted by an Irish uprising and a successful coup led by General Koos de la Rey in South Africa, France falls in 1914, Russia comes to the table in 1915) with Germany annexing the Polish border strip, Austria-Hungary holding onto their possessions (Galicia and Lodomeria) while placing Archduke Charles Stephen on the throne of a rump Polish state (which serves as a satellite of the CP and a buffer between the Kaiser and the Tsar).
 
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