AHC: Poland-Lithuania today

The challenge is to have the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth survive to the present day.

The last possible POD is with a victorious Napoleon during the invasion of Russia. If Napoleon sticked to his original plan, he hoped to conquer Russia in a 2 or 3 years campaign, so he will set up a big Poland-Lithuania, as a Kingdom under maybe Joseph Poniatowski, as an ally in the east to check the three "Black Eagles".

When I say conquer Russia is not conquering every russian town but at least Saint Petersburg and Moscow, that can be left burning... Conquering enough russian lands to rebuild the eastern provinces of the Commonwealth, all of Lituania, Bielorussia and enough Ukraine from Lwow to the Podolia region, where at least you can find some polish people living. Napoleon must also deal with the serfdom issue.

A victorious Napoleon mean also that you have differents others POD as no Campaign of Spain for example and at least a diplomatic solution with Austria because you can have the 3 greatest continental powers as ennemies in the long term.
 
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Wouldn't a Poland-Lithuania be vunerable to similar things as Austria-Hungary IOTL.
OTOH Austria-Hungary may also be around ITTL, since they won't have Galicia-Lodomeria and Bukovina ITTL, they will have fewer nationalities to worry about.
 
Wouldn't a Poland-Lithuania be vunerable to similar things as Austria-Hungary IOTL.
OTOH Austria-Hungary may also be around ITTL, since they won't have Galicia-Lodomeria and Bukovina ITTL, they will have fewer nationalities to worry about.

I don't think so.. Not to the same extent, at least. Lithuania is fairly irrelevant, it's very small and won't be able to resist much. I don't think Belarus would be much of a problem as it has no national consciousness in this period. Hell, they might even be co-opted by the Poles; Belorussian nationalists today like to claim it's the true successor to the Lithuania part of Poland-Lithuania after all. Ukraine would the most problematic, I suppose.
 
Pilsudski wanted to restore the Commonwealth in a modern form. It was probably a doomed cause, however:

"Piłsudski's plan faced opposition from virtually all quarters. The Soviets, whose sphere of influence was directly threatened, worked to thwart the Intermarium agenda.[17] The Allied Powers assumed that Bolshevism was only a temporary threat and did not want to see their important (from the balance-of-power viewpoint) traditional ally, Russia, weakened. They resented Piłsudski's refusal to aid their White allies, viewed Piłsudski with suspicion, saw his plans as unrealistic, and urged Poland to confine itself to areas of clear-cut Polish ethnicity.[32][33][34] The [33][35] Lithuanians, who had re-established their independence in 1918, were unwilling to join; the Ukrainians, similarly seeking independence,[18] likewise feared that Poland might again subjugate them;[33] and the Belarusians, who had little national consciousness, were not interested either in independence or in Pilsudski's proposals of union.[33] The chances for Piłsudski's scheme were not enhanced by a series of post-World War I wars and border conflicts between Poland and its neighbors in disputed territories—the Polish-Soviet War, the Polish-Lithuanian War, the Polish-Ukrainian War, and border conflicts between Poland and Czechoslovakia.

"Piłsudski's concept was opposed within Poland itself, where National Democracy leader Roman Dmowski[36][37] argued for an ethnically purer Poland in which minorities would be Polonized.[38][39] Many Polish politicians, including Dmowski, opposed the idea of a multicultural federation, preferring instead to work for a unitary Polish nation-state.[37] Sanford has described Pilsudski's policies after his resumption of power in 1926 as similarly focusing on the Polonization of the country's Eastern Slavic minorities and on the centralization of power.[31]

"While some scholars accept at face value the democratic principles claimed by Piłsudski for his federative plan,[40] others view such claims with skepticism, pointing out a coup d'état in 1926 when Piłsudski assumed nearly dictatorial powers.[13][41] In particular, his project is viewed unfavorably by most Ukrainian historians, with Oleksandr Derhachov arguing that the federation would have created a greater Poland in which the interests of non-Poles, especially Ukrainians, would have gotten short shrift.[15]

"Some historians hold that Piłsudski, who argued that "There can be no independent Poland without an independent Ukraine," may have been more interested in splitting Ukraine from Russia than in assuring Ukrainians' welfare.[42][43] He did not hesitate to use military force to expand Poland's borders to Galicia and Volhynia, crushing a Ukrainian attempt at self-determination in disputed territories east of the Bug River which contained a substantial Polish presence[44] (a Polish majority mainly in cities such as Lwów, surrounded by a rural Ukrainian majority).

"Speaking of Poland's future frontiers, Piłsudski said: "All that we can gain in the west depends on the Entente—on the extent to which it may wish to squeeze Germany," while in the east "there are doors that open and close, and it depends on who forces them open and how far."[45] In the eastern chaos, the Polish forces set out to expand as far as feasible. On the other hand, Poland had no interest in joining the western intervention in the Russian Civil War[44] or in conquering Russia itself.[46]" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermarium
 
In OTL, around the time of the Deluge and Khmelnytsky Rebellion there was serious talk of adding Ruthenia as a third constituent member of the Commonwealth to appease the cossacks and regain control of it after the wars and rebellions and to fend off Russian influence. In fact things even got as far as the Treaty of Hadiach signed by the Commonwealth and the cossack leaders, but because of a Russian invasion and the continuingly unstable situation it was never implemented. A Polish-Lithuanian-Ruthenian Commonwealth could be the PoD that sets the Commonwealth on course for survival, or it could just be a feature of a Commonwealth that's surviving because of some other PoD, but either way it's a promising concept. It also doesn't seem to be beyond reason that other nations could follow Ruthenia and be raised to full member states as needed in the future.
 
Pilsudski wanted to restore the Commonwealth in a modern form.

Yes, and also remember their Promethean plan (seccede ethnical nations from USSR) with limited suport (i remember Georgia pretty enthusiastic with this) to weak the USSR and expand Poland influence.
 
Pilsudski wanted to restore the Commonwealth in a modern form. It was probably a doomed cause, however:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermarium

I don't take into accunt Pilsudski plan because we are in the before 1900 forum.

In fact, 1812-1815 was the last time, the Commonwealth can survive because the dominant nationality were still the Poles and the minorities could still be polonized without many difficulties, especially when the minorities were only half-illiterate serfs as much of their elites were of polish origin or were heavily polonized. Later in the XIXth century, the identity of each of the others nationalities began to structure and it was too late. And probably, in 1812 - 1815, it was already to late to "polonized" the Ukrainians as they had already developped a specific national identity based on the greek-catholic religion and a history of hatred against the Poles as shown during the Cossacks revolts.
 
What I would love to see is a TL where Napoleon re creates the PLC, but then loses the Napoleonic Wars. The winners keep the PLC as a buffer against Russia. I could see it be done considering Austria ended up regretting the partitions of Poland as it brought Russia to close. Add a nasty Russian Civil War at some point and you are well on your way to a survive PLC without a France Wank.
 
I don't take into accunt Pilsudski plan because we are in the before 1900 forum.

In fact, 1812-1815 was the last time, the Commonwealth can survive because the dominant nationality were still the Poles and the minorities could still be polonized without many difficulties, especially when the minorities were only half-illiterate serfs as much of their elites were of polish origin or were heavily polonized. Later in the XIXth century, the identity of each of the others nationalities began to structure and it was too late. And probably, in 1812 - 1815, it was already to late to "polonized" the Ukrainians as they had already developped a specific national identity based on the greek-catholic religion and a history of hatred against the Poles as shown during the Cossacks revolts.

Ukrainians in Poland would be different thing than Ukrainians in Austria-Hungary which could (and have) play the nationalities against each other. Historically Poland only had the chance of polonization of minirities when it was much too late for that.
 
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