AHC - Poland-Lithuania absolute monarchy, by 18th century
- Thread starter raharris1973
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If Stephen Bathory or either of Sigismund's children had legitimate issue, it would have strengthened the monarchy and prevented the horse-trading that their eventual successors had to engage in to gain power. A Bathory dynasty would have been more promising than a Vasa one, since the Vasa's pretensions to the Swedish throne were a source of conflict with Sweden, a country that the P-L Commonwealth was capable of defeating.
At a high level, an absolute monarchy would require that the King manage to gain enough revenue independent of the Sejm to maintain his government and army. If the King of Poland can having to beg the Sejm and Senate for funds, he will be in a position to rule as an absolute monarch. Fredrick III's "reforms" of the previously elective Danish Monarchy would be the most direct analogy I can think of. Perhaps after repulsing an invasion from one of the Commonwealth's many enemies, the King manages to convince or force the Senate to make the monarchy hereditary, and grant him life revenues.
At a high level, an absolute monarchy would require that the King manage to gain enough revenue independent of the Sejm to maintain his government and army. If the King of Poland can having to beg the Sejm and Senate for funds, he will be in a position to rule as an absolute monarch. Fredrick III's "reforms" of the previously elective Danish Monarchy would be the most direct analogy I can think of. Perhaps after repulsing an invasion from one of the Commonwealth's many enemies, the King manages to convince or force the Senate to make the monarchy hereditary, and grant him life revenues.
Hard, but doable. I think it would require a civil war(s), a king getting support not only from noblemen/knights, but also some other social group (burghers?), possibly also some overhelming external threat to give king absolute power, initially only temporarily, but later perpetually.
I think that Władysław III might be a good candidate. Perhaps king of Hungary Albrecht II Habsburg lives longer, but in 1441 Murad II manages to capture Belgrad, and John Hunyady dies during the campaign in a skirmish? Hungary can not offer Władysław Hungarian throne as long as Albrecht is alive. Eventually the Ottomans conquer most of Hungary closing to Polish borders. Meanwhile Ulugh Muhammad keeps control of most of the Golden Horde and, as revenge for Lithuanian support for his rivals, allies with the Ottomans and starts raiding Ruthenia and Lithuania. First Polish and Lithuanian armies (levee en masse) gather slowly and are more interested in policy, than fighting, so when they enter the action, there are quickly defeated. King Władysław manages to convince his knights to agree to higher taxes in exchange of their personal service, so he can hire professional soldiers (like IOTL during Polish-Teutonic War 1454-1466). That smaller, but mich more competent army is much more successful - and loyal to the king.
After temporarily stabilizing situation on southern border (peace treaties with the Ottomans and Tatars). King Władysław III is expected to disband most of his professional army. However, at the same time, Prussian Union raises against the Order (as they did IOTL) and ask for incorporation into Poland. The Polish-Teutonic war lasts much shorter than IOTL and most of the Prussian Union get their wish.
King Władysław III now has hardened in battle, professional army; support of the very wealthy towns of the Prussian Union. He sees no reason to relinquish his power, especially after his son, John, is born (it doesn't matter who is the wife). The noblemen raise against them and ask Władysław's brother, Casimir, for help. The civil/fratricide war ends with Władysław's vctory and Casimir's surender (or death). King's position is now very strong and Władysław's successor will do their best to streghten it even more.
Pure improvisation, not very likely, but possible.
I think that Władysław III might be a good candidate. Perhaps king of Hungary Albrecht II Habsburg lives longer, but in 1441 Murad II manages to capture Belgrad, and John Hunyady dies during the campaign in a skirmish? Hungary can not offer Władysław Hungarian throne as long as Albrecht is alive. Eventually the Ottomans conquer most of Hungary closing to Polish borders. Meanwhile Ulugh Muhammad keeps control of most of the Golden Horde and, as revenge for Lithuanian support for his rivals, allies with the Ottomans and starts raiding Ruthenia and Lithuania. First Polish and Lithuanian armies (levee en masse) gather slowly and are more interested in policy, than fighting, so when they enter the action, there are quickly defeated. King Władysław manages to convince his knights to agree to higher taxes in exchange of their personal service, so he can hire professional soldiers (like IOTL during Polish-Teutonic War 1454-1466). That smaller, but mich more competent army is much more successful - and loyal to the king.
After temporarily stabilizing situation on southern border (peace treaties with the Ottomans and Tatars). King Władysław III is expected to disband most of his professional army. However, at the same time, Prussian Union raises against the Order (as they did IOTL) and ask for incorporation into Poland. The Polish-Teutonic war lasts much shorter than IOTL and most of the Prussian Union get their wish.
King Władysław III now has hardened in battle, professional army; support of the very wealthy towns of the Prussian Union. He sees no reason to relinquish his power, especially after his son, John, is born (it doesn't matter who is the wife). The noblemen raise against them and ask Władysław's brother, Casimir, for help. The civil/fratricide war ends with Władysław's vctory and Casimir's surender (or death). King's position is now very strong and Władysław's successor will do their best to streghten it even more.
Pure improvisation, not very likely, but possible.
What about a successfull Jan III Sobieski that allies with France and the Ottomans, I remember he wanted to take both Prussia and Silesia...if he allied with France it would be France, Poland, Ottomans and their allies who would be partitioning Austria, I think the French support could lead to the reform of the PLC as well.
It would not be impossible, but the hour would be quite late by the time of John Sobieski. At this point, there is already precedent for magnates calling on foreign support in the event that they are in conflict with the monarch. Any major centralization effort that sidelines the Senate and Sejm would anger the magnates, who would call on every neighboring power to support them against the king's "usurpation."
France is too far away to be a consistent ally. Louis XIV had many more pressing problems closer to home that required his gold and his armies. Any French action to support Poland would mean war on France's other borders, and at the end of the day, Louis cares a lot more about Dunkirk and Strasbourg than he does Breslau and Konigsberg. Only in a situation in which every other power is prostrate to France or its ally would Louis be able to tip the scales in favor of the Polish king.
The other POD would be having Jadwiga give birth to a son to Jogaila, in this case Jogaila does not need to bribe nobles like he did in OTL but still we have the Luxembourgs who took over Casimir III's blood line I think there is also a need to unite that claim with the claim of Jadwiga by having Jadwiga and Jogaila's son marry Elisabeth of Luxembourg who was the direct heir to Casimir III, this would legitimize the rule of the Jagiellonians in Poland completely.
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I like early Jagiellonian solution.
And Casimir would show them a fig gesture and support his brother (for the prize of Lituanian crown I suppose). After all he was a Lithuanian prince used to more absolutist rules in his realm. I think that the immediate result of this development would be brief separation between Poland and Lithuania but the convergence of political systems and common dynasty on both thrones would enable their reunification if one of the branches went extinct.
And Casimir would show them a fig gesture and support his brother (for the prize of Lituanian crown I suppose). After all he was a Lithuanian prince used to more absolutist rules in his realm. I think that the immediate result of this development would be brief separation between Poland and Lithuania but the convergence of political systems and common dynasty on both thrones would enable their reunification if one of the branches went extinct.