Originally posted by
von Adler
1. The Polish aircraft designer Pulawski does not die in an air crash 1931. Due to his prestige the Polish air force gets some more funds. When the Germans invade, they have up-engined and up-gunned their Pzl P.11s to Pz P.24 standards (2x20mm, 2xMG) and about half the fighters are top-modern Pzl P.50.
If Puławski is alive, there probably would not be PZL-50 (not P-50, BTW - P. is for Puławski, and PZL-50 was constructed by Jakimiuk). However, with Puławski alive and better management of Polish plane building programs (and scraping some of them), Poland might have slightly more modern air force. However, I'm not sure it was possible to upgrade P-11 to P-24; there were also problems with engings for Polish fighters. Poland was unable to build good engins, and IIRC countries buying P-24s bought engines separately from different suppliers. Besides, P-24s werenot that good. They were simply the best Poles were able to produce.
And one more thing: AFAIK PZL-50 was anything but top modern; it was underpowered (which might be helped with buying a better engin) and maneuverability was questionable.
The Polish army makes a complete mobilisation during the second week of august and ramsp up war production in a panic mode. The allied supply and arms convoys en route leaves a bit early at the insistence of the Poles. OTL, this shipment of arms were sold to Turkey when Poland fell, but here they will be delivered. The shipment included Hurricanes, 3 Spitfire Is, 17 (or 16) LT Mk VI, 50 Renault R35 tanks and much other equipmen
Any supplies reaching Poland in August wiuld be too late. Polish pilots and mechanics would need time to learn how to use and service new planes. And panicked production in August also would not be very effective.
The Polish army follows through with the plan to re-arm the TK tankettes with 20mm wz.38 automatic cannons (capable of dealing with Pz I and Pz IIs and slightly more firepower against infantry) instead of just re-arming about 10.
Polish 20mm cannons were constructed in 1938; I doubt Poland would be able to rearm a siginificant number of TKs. Besides, TK were only tankettes, without turrets and with thin armour, and originally they served as reconessaince machines, not tank destroyers. Poles would need to make some changes in their doctrine
4. The Polish army deployes smaller forces in the corridor and more forces further inside the country.
Polish forces in the Corridor were not that big, but you're right. Poles would have needed to be certain that the Allies would not make a deal with Hitler (at their cost) should Germany easily and quickly occupy some territories (especially the Corridor) and offer peace then in exchange for them keeping their newest gains.
Thus, the German attack faces stiffer opposition, especially in the air. When October rolls around, the Poles have withdrawn to the planned Lvov bridgehead and Warsaw. The Lvov bridgehead can be supplied by the allies through friendly Romania (as was the pre-war plan). The Germans have to withdraw forces to face an increasingly strong French Saar offensive.
Theoretically possible
6. The Soviets, seeing the Polish resistance, simply occupies their part, but do not attack the Polish Lvov salient out of fear of provoking the allies.
May I remind you, that Soviets occupying "their part" would mean the Red Army coming between Germans and Polish bridgehead?
7. The Germans contain the French and crush Warsaw in November 1939, but the Lvovo brigdehead, which contains about 3/5 of the pre-war Polish army survives into 1940.
I'm not sure Polish army woul be able to widhraw so many troops to Lvov region. 60%, really? It would mean giving up rest of Poland almost without a fight.
To summarize. Any quick changes made in summer 1939 would be too little, too late. Better fighters (P-24s) might help, but Germans had also bigger numbers and better strategy (most of Polish fighters were spread among Polish armies; the only larger concentration of Polish fighter planes was Brygada Pościgowa (Pursuit Brigade) protecting Warsaw with 54 combat planes.
What we need is a scenario, when Poles prepare for a war with Germany earlier, with significant backing (political, technological, military and financial) from France and Britain - with them preoapring themselves as well. Poor chance for that before occupation of Czechoslovakia, and after that it was too late. Poles might have been able to fight longer and inflicting much more serious losses on German troops, give the Allies more time, but that was it for Poland. Had the Allies used the time gained by Poland better, they might perhaps win. But regular Polish troops lasting until 1940? I doubt it.
And if Soviets enter the fray, it is game over for Poland.