AHC: Poland lasts until 1940 - (No Soviet attack)

I've always wondered how long Poland could last if they did everything right and the Germans did everything wrong. I know that Poland apparently mobilised its army, then unmobilised it, then mobilised it again late in August 1939, while Germany postponed the invasion by a few days allowing multiple new divisions to be ready for the attack.

Also, what if the French decide to pursue the Saar offensive with some determination?

If Poland can hold on long enough, the Soviets could become nervous about attacking - what if they are held back by the Poles and the Allies decide to declare war on them too? The Soviet invasion depended on nobody caring about Poland's fate at that stage.

Goal: Poland survives, in the form of a recognisable military formation that hasn't surrendered in Polish territory, until January 1st, 1940
 
Poland had terrible strategical position, German armed forces were superior in every way (except bravery). Even with Polish Army fully mobilized and prepared, even with storms and downpours, etc. grounding the Luftwaffe and changing most of Polish roads into mud I seriously doubt Poles would have been able to keep any significant position until 1940. Poles simply had no supplies to fight that long. The only marginally possible place Poles might be able to hold was the Romanian bridgehead, proveded the allies woudl send supplies and reinforcements.
French more decisive actions in Saar might help, but even if the French (and the British) reached Rhine, it wouldn't have saved Poland.
And the moment the Soviets decide to join in, Poland is doomed. Even if the Germans screw up everything, Polish Army was unable to fight simultanously against Wehrmacht and the Red Army for any longer period. No army in the world was.
 
1. The attempt at a Polish frontier defense is discarded in favor of concentration around the transportation centers & a delaying force to slow the enemy advance. The largest concentration would be near the Rumanian frontier. With the necessity to besiege & reduce each railroad hub some of the weaknesses of the 1939 German army will be in play.

2. French army starts the next stage of its offense in October when the second echelon or Series A units are ready. Part of this is a air campaign to destroy the Rhine river & other bridges in the Ruhr, & second the railroad yards and service centers. It may be correct the French wont get decisive results with this, but the Germans wont know this when the attacks start. Odds are they will transfer the necessary air and ground forces from the east to ensure the French offense does not threaten the Rhur.
 
Ok, it is doable.

1. The Polish aircraft designer Pulawski does not die in an air crash 1931. Due to his prestige the Polish air force gets some more funds. When the Germans invade, they have up-engined and up-gunned their Pzl P.11s to Pz P.24 standards (2x20mm, 2xMG) and about half the fighters are top-modern Pzl P.50.

2. The Polish army makes a complete mobilisation during the second week of august and ramsp up war production in a panic mode. The allied supply and arms convoys en route leaves a bit early at the insistence of the Poles. OTL, this shipment of arms were sold to Turkey when Poland fell, but here they will be delivered. The shipment included Hurricanes, 3 Spitfire Is, 17 (or 16) LT Mk VI, 50 Renault R35 tanks and much other equipment.

3. The Polish army follows through with the plan to re-arm the TK tankettes with 20mm wz.38 automatic cannons (capable of dealing with Pz I and Pz IIs and slightly more firepower against infantry) instead of just re-arming about 10.

4. The Polish army deployes smaller forces in the corridor and more forces further inside the country.

5. Thus, the German attack faces stiffer opposition, especially in the air. When October rolls around, the Poles have withdrawn to the planned Lvov bridgehead and Warsaw. The Lvov bridgehead can be supplied by the allies through friendly Romania (as was the pre-war plan). The Germans have to withdraw forces to face an increasingly strong French Saar offensive.

6. The Soviets, seeing the Polish resistance, simply occupies their part, but do not attack the Polish Lvov salient out of fear of provoking the allies.

7. The Germans contain the French and crush Warsaw in November 1939, but the Lvovo brigdehead, which contains about 3/5 of the pre-war Polish army survives into 1940.
 
Originally posted by von Adler
1. The Polish aircraft designer Pulawski does not die in an air crash 1931. Due to his prestige the Polish air force gets some more funds. When the Germans invade, they have up-engined and up-gunned their Pzl P.11s to Pz P.24 standards (2x20mm, 2xMG) and about half the fighters are top-modern Pzl P.50.

If Puławski is alive, there probably would not be PZL-50 (not P-50, BTW - P. is for Puławski, and PZL-50 was constructed by Jakimiuk). However, with Puławski alive and better management of Polish plane building programs (and scraping some of them), Poland might have slightly more modern air force. However, I'm not sure it was possible to upgrade P-11 to P-24; there were also problems with engings for Polish fighters. Poland was unable to build good engins, and IIRC countries buying P-24s bought engines separately from different suppliers. Besides, P-24s werenot that good. They were simply the best Poles were able to produce.
And one more thing: AFAIK PZL-50 was anything but top modern; it was underpowered (which might be helped with buying a better engin) and maneuverability was questionable.

The Polish army makes a complete mobilisation during the second week of august and ramsp up war production in a panic mode. The allied supply and arms convoys en route leaves a bit early at the insistence of the Poles. OTL, this shipment of arms were sold to Turkey when Poland fell, but here they will be delivered. The shipment included Hurricanes, 3 Spitfire Is, 17 (or 16) LT Mk VI, 50 Renault R35 tanks and much other equipmen

Any supplies reaching Poland in August wiuld be too late. Polish pilots and mechanics would need time to learn how to use and service new planes. And panicked production in August also would not be very effective.

The Polish army follows through with the plan to re-arm the TK tankettes with 20mm wz.38 automatic cannons (capable of dealing with Pz I and Pz IIs and slightly more firepower against infantry) instead of just re-arming about 10.

Polish 20mm cannons were constructed in 1938; I doubt Poland would be able to rearm a siginificant number of TKs. Besides, TK were only tankettes, without turrets and with thin armour, and originally they served as reconessaince machines, not tank destroyers. Poles would need to make some changes in their doctrine

4. The Polish army deployes smaller forces in the corridor and more forces further inside the country.

Polish forces in the Corridor were not that big, but you're right. Poles would have needed to be certain that the Allies would not make a deal with Hitler (at their cost) should Germany easily and quickly occupy some territories (especially the Corridor) and offer peace then in exchange for them keeping their newest gains.

Thus, the German attack faces stiffer opposition, especially in the air. When October rolls around, the Poles have withdrawn to the planned Lvov bridgehead and Warsaw. The Lvov bridgehead can be supplied by the allies through friendly Romania (as was the pre-war plan). The Germans have to withdraw forces to face an increasingly strong French Saar offensive.

Theoretically possible

6. The Soviets, seeing the Polish resistance, simply occupies their part, but do not attack the Polish Lvov salient out of fear of provoking the allies.

May I remind you, that Soviets occupying "their part" would mean the Red Army coming between Germans and Polish bridgehead?

7. The Germans contain the French and crush Warsaw in November 1939, but the Lvovo brigdehead, which contains about 3/5 of the pre-war Polish army survives into 1940.

I'm not sure Polish army woul be able to widhraw so many troops to Lvov region. 60%, really? It would mean giving up rest of Poland almost without a fight.


To summarize. Any quick changes made in summer 1939 would be too little, too late. Better fighters (P-24s) might help, but Germans had also bigger numbers and better strategy (most of Polish fighters were spread among Polish armies; the only larger concentration of Polish fighter planes was Brygada Pościgowa (Pursuit Brigade) protecting Warsaw with 54 combat planes.
What we need is a scenario, when Poles prepare for a war with Germany earlier, with significant backing (political, technological, military and financial) from France and Britain - with them preoapring themselves as well. Poor chance for that before occupation of Czechoslovakia, and after that it was too late. Poles might have been able to fight longer and inflicting much more serious losses on German troops, give the Allies more time, but that was it for Poland. Had the Allies used the time gained by Poland better, they might perhaps win. But regular Polish troops lasting until 1940? I doubt it.
And if Soviets enter the fray, it is game over for Poland.
 
Someone wargamed a "what if Germany sucker punched France Sep 1 1939." Germany might beat France it appears and in this scenerio, Poland probably lasts to 1940 regardless.
 
Well, as i was toying with some polish and related ATL ideas, hope this is not too old to revive.

Other are better informed about what the poles can do with the deployment of their ground forces. But here's some things they could have used in order to make them last until 1940:

First, they need a Germany-Czecholsovakia war in 1938, the allies do nothing but sounding angry, USSR sends some token material help, but the czechs fold and ask for an armistice relatively quickly. But the germans would have suffered some losses, some hundreds of tanks and planes, some tens of thousands of troops dead or wounded. Conversely, a lot of the czech weapons they got OTL are destroyed or evacuated, and factories damaged or sabotaged. Overall, the germans are somewhat weaker in 1939.

Back in Poland, starting 1936 they have ordered a lot more 7TP tanks as soon as the all around rearmament becomes obvious, let's say 200-300 extra, as well as numbers of 10TP and 4TP, but likely very few of those are ready by 1939. Also they have ordered some of those 37mm (i think) SPGs on the TK chassis so they have some of those, and also more AT guns.

In the air, they have ordered PZL-24 (430kph) as an interim fighter in, about 60-70 of them plus several hundred Gnome-Rhone 14K and N engines from France (and the licence), delivered by 1939. Shortly before the war they also confiscate 36 PZL-43 and 20-30 more PZL-24 meant for export.

Postpone LWS-3 production and instead give priority and build as many PZL-45 (about 430-450 kph probably) light fighters as possible in paralel with the more complicated and expensive PZL-50, with GR 14M 700HP or Mercury-VIII 840HP engines to replace the hopelessly outdated PZL-7 and 11. They should have 40-50 in 1939 with 100 building, some of those will be delivered during the war.

Build the PZL-50 with a GR 14N engine using as many PZL-24 components as possible, sort of like IAR-80, including the fuselage (historically the initial PZL-50 was a lemon because of weak Mercury engine and aerodynamic defects). Hopefully 30 or so of these are ready, with about 50 or more under construction, some will de delivered during the war.

Postpone or cancel PZL-46 to free resources (they could rework it as a future dive-bomber, see PZL "Losos").

Reduce the number of PZL-37 further from 120 to 90 to to free some more resources for fighters, maybe the last few tens can be fitted with GR 14N engines for more speed.

Build the PZL-38 from the start with GR 14M engines, maybe a small number are available in 1939 and a few delivered during the war.

Order 150 MS-406, 50 Hurricane and 100 Battles, maybe even some Blenheims too, more R-35/H-35 and LT Mk VI tanks from UK and France in 1938 (not as OTL 1939), at least some should have arrived before the war, and some will arrive during.
 
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I think what is really needed is for Britain, France, and Poland to have real working operational plans on what to do if war begins. Poland's major problem is that their assumptions did not match what Britain and France intended to do.

The Poles expected to hold out for six months or so, buying enough time for the West to mobilize and quickly invade Germany to relieve it. Britain and France expected Poland to fold in two to three months and not launch their offensive until years later.

The Poles need to know that there will be no quick relief, and that after initial fighting in the Corridor, that they need to fall back to more defensible positions. In return, Britain and France need to commit to an offensive into Germany after a certain amount of time as long as Poland is still fighting. There also needs to be an explicit Allied commitment to Poland's territorial integrity. This all needs to happen in early 1939 when Britain makes its guarantee which means the real POD is likely months before this in order to get Britain and France to treat this seriously.

If so, the Poles will feel more comfortable keeping the bulk of their forces to more defensible lines like the Vistula and San Rivers and eventually the Romanian bridgehead.

Poland holding out into 1940 puts a lot of pressure on Britain and France to intervene. This means a stronger Saar offensive initially by France, and a commitment to a spring 1940 offensive as soon as the weather permits. The combination of heavier fighting in Poland, and France entering the Rhineland is likely disruptive of any German plans against France. If Germany appears headed to a stalemate and eventual defeat, expect a military coup against Hitler to "save" the country and negotiate peace with the Allies.
 
Originally posted by mack8
Back in Poland, starting 1936 they have ordered a lot more 7TP tanks as soon as the all around rearmament becomes obvious, let's say 200-300 extra, as well as numbers of 10TP and 4TP, but likely very few of those are ready by 1939. Also they have ordered some of those 37mm (i think) SPGs on the TK chassis so they have some of those, and also more AT guns.

And pay for them with what?

In the air, they have ordered PZL-24 (430kph) as an interim fighter in, about 60-70 of them plus several hundred Gnome-Rhone 14K and N engines from France (and the licence), delivered by 1939. Shortly before the war they also confiscate 36 PZL-43 and 20-30 more PZL-24 meant for export.
Postpone LWS-3 production and instead give priority and build as many PZL-45 (about 430-450 kph probably) light fighters as possible in paralel with the more complicated and expensive PZL-50, with GR 14M 700HP or Mercury-VIII 840HP engines to replace the hopelessly outdated PZL-7 and 11. They should have 40-50 in 1939 with 100 building, some of those will be delivered during the war.
Build the PZL-50 with a GR 14N engine using as many PZL-24 components as possible, sort of like IAR-80, including the fuselage (historically the initial PZL-50 was a lemon because of weak Mercury engine and aerodynamic defects). Hopefully 30 or so of these are ready, with about 50 or more under construction, some will de delivered during the war.
Postpone or cancel PZL-46 to free resources (they could rework it as a future dive-bomber, see PZL "Losos").
Reduce the number of PZL-37 further from 120 to 90 to to free some more resources for fighters, maybe the last few tens can be fitted with GR 14N engines for more speed.
Build the PZL-38 from the start with GR 14M engines, maybe a small number are available in 1939 and a few delivered during the war.

Again, that is a very expensive solution, and confiscating planes made for export meant even less money.
Not to mention the idea of building do mant types of planes (P-24, PZL-50, PZL-50, PZL-38) seems to me a little too much. It is easier to produce in larger numbers and cheaper to mantain only 1-2 types of plane.

Order 150 MS-406, 50 Hurricane and 100 Battles, maybe even some Blenheims too, more R-35/H-35 and LT Mk VI tanks from UK and France in 1938 (not as OTL 1939), at least some should have arrived before the war, and some will arrive during.

And again, pay for them with what?
Problem is pre-war Poland was poor and simply couldn't afford such large projects.

Originally posted by Blackfox5
The Poles expected to hold out for six months or so, buying enough time for the West to mobilize and quickly invade Germany to relieve it. Britain and France expected Poland to fold in two to three months and not launch their offensive until years later.

Actually, Poles were promised by the French they would launch a full scale offensive about 2-3 weeks after German attack. Poles hoped to keep Germans busy that long (and they more or less did - barely), but the offensive never happened. The allied command decided to stop their advance in Saar region and pretty much anywhere else on 12th of September.

The Poles need to know that there will be no quick relief, and that after initial fighting in the Corridor, that they need to fall back to more defensible positions. In return, Britain and France need to commit to an offensive into Germany after a certain amount of time as long as Poland is still fighting. There also needs to be an explicit Allied commitment to Poland's territorial integrity. This all needs to happen in early 1939 when Britain makes its guarantee which means the real POD is likely months before this in order to get Britain and France to treat this seriously.
If so, the Poles will feel more comfortable keeping the bulk of their forces to more defensible lines like the Vistula and San Rivers and eventually the Romanian bridgehead.

True enough. And the allies should not interfere with Polish mobilization. OTOH, Polish defensive plan was rather poor (Poles tried to be strong everywhere, so they were nowhere strong enough) and I'm not sure what changes would be made even if Marshall Śmigły-Rudz fully trusted French and British promises. After all, giving away almost half of the country (the richer half) almost without a shot wouldn't be easy to swallow.
 
Even as small a change as "Stalin doesn't invade and leaves the Germans to slog through Poland" would probably result in Polish armies still in the field - most likely defending the hilly country that neighbored Romania, since it was both more defensible terrain and closer to the supply line from Romania. Now, in such a scenario, the Poles would be in a very difficult position and likely doomed if the Germans focus on them, but the Germans may not have the time or resources to focus on them. France and Britain were militarizing very quickly and Germany was in no position to afford a long war in Poland.

As much as the German victory in Poland LOOKED like a cakewalk, it really wasn't. It was a costly war for the Germans and only a few things going worse for the Germans will result in the Poles lasting for a good while longer.

Further, if the Soviets don't enter the war, then Romania is very, very likely to enter on the Polish side. The Romanians were strong allies of Poland (Poland almost ended up with a Romanian king, I've read) as well as strong allies of France. The only reason they stayed out OTL is because the Soviet entry made joining suicidal. Now, the Soviets could still put diplomatic pressure on the Romanians (i.e. "if you help the Poles, we help the Germans and invade you and Poland") to keep them out - but absent Soviet pressure, the Romanians are in and Poland - at least part of Poland - would likely be able to hold out indefinitely.

Of course, actually liberating Poland requires Britain and France to do something useful in the West and for Stalin to continue to stay out.

fasquardon
 
And again, pay for them with what?
Problem is pre-war Poland was poor and simply couldn't afford such large projects.


True enough. And the allies should not interfere with Polish mobilization. OTOH, Polish defensive plan was rather poor (Poles tried to be strong everywhere, so they were nowhere strong enough) and I'm not sure what changes would be made even if Marshall Śmigły-Rudz fully trusted French and British promises. After all, giving away almost half of the country (the richer half) almost without a shot wouldn't be easy to swallow.
1. Iirc there was an action that collected money for buying couple hundred modern fighters, but it was too late already.

2. You need allies undrstanding that the war at this point is inevitable, and acting accordingly. If Poles can be assured that they wont be thrown under the bus afterwards, they can mount much shorter defense lines in better terrain, strenghtened by the rivers, leaving only token defences in the western part of the country.
 
Originally posted by mack8
And pay for them with what?

Poland did not expect war as early as 1939, and therefore kept its economy on peacetime footing and maintained a balanced budget. But if the decisionmakers in Warsaw expect war a lot more can be produced. Sure, this will mean a big economic hangover later on, but if this can help in the war then it would be worth it.
 
Originally posted by MarcinL
1. Iirc there was an action that collected money for buying couple hundred modern fighters, but it was too late already.

I think you mean Pożyczka Obrony Przeciwlotniczej (Air Defence Loan). I'm not sure how exactly it would work, since it indeed started late IOTL. OTOH Fundusz Obrony Narodowej (National Defence Fund) was started in 1936 and Fundusz Obrony Morskiej (Sea Defence Fund) even earlier, in 1933. Most of the cash gathered by those funds WAS used for modernisation of the Polish Army and Polish Navy. The means were acquired form selling state-owned land, foreign credits (mostly French, IIRC) and gifts from private persons and institutions. The question is how much Polish people (not only ethnic Poles BTW, FON, FOM and POP received aldo gifts from Jews and Ukrainians) were able to give. Poland was not wealthy, neither were most of POlish citizens. Their cash and precious items reserves were not that great.

2. You need allies undrstanding that the war at this point is inevitable, and acting accordingly. If Poles can be assured that they wont be thrown under the bus afterwards, they can mount much shorter defense lines in better terrain, strenghtened by the rivers, leaving only token defences in the western part of the country.

I agree. But still, losing best developed half of the country would be hard - many of Polish factories and large part of Polish human reserves were in western Poland.

Originally posted by Zaius
Poland did not expect war as early as 1939, and therefore kept its economy on peacetime footing and maintained a balanced budget. But if the decisionmakers in Warsaw expect war a lot more can be produced. Sure, this will mean a big economic hangover later on, but if this can help in the war then it would be worth it.

That would require Poles to know years earlier the war would happen in 1939. Had they done what you propose, Polish economy collapse in 1940-1941. You can not plan budget like that.Neither Poland, nor France and Britain wanted the war and tried to avoid i, so they couldn't plan the war in 1939 unless they wanted to start it. Because - hey success, Hitler gave up and did not start the war. Great, but how are we going to feed our chlidren now?
And even German generals doubted they would be ready for full scale war in 1939.

As far as Polish budget goes...In 1921-1936 Poland spent about 33% of its budget on army. Later that number was even bigger. But Poland was poor and simly coulnd't macth German effort. IIRC in 1933-1939 Poland spent almost 7 billions złotys on military. At the same time Germany spent 90 billions marks (and German mark was worth almost2 Polish złotys).
 
Some time in 1938 Britain and France Plan early attack on Germany in the event of war.

All Nazi air bases in the West hit.

Luck goes with Anglo French invaders, Stalin decides not to risk it.

Germany panics

Hitler gets lead poison by an old fashioned army guy. Peace treaty agreed.
 
That would require Poles to know years earlier the war would happen in 1939. Had they done what you propose, Polish economy collapse in 1940-1941. You can not plan budget like that.Neither Poland, nor France and Britain wanted the war and tried to avoid i, so they couldn't plan the war in 1939 unless they wanted to start it. Because - hey success, Hitler gave up and did not start the war. Great, but how are we going to feed our chlidren now?
And even German generals doubted they would be ready for full scale war in 1939.

As far as Polish budget goes...In 1921-1936 Poland spent about 33% of its budget on army. Later that number was even bigger. But Poland was poor and simly coulnd't macth German effort. IIRC in 1933-1939 Poland spent almost 7 billions złotys on military. At the same time Germany spent 90 billions marks (and German mark was worth almost2 Polish złotys).

As I said, Warsaw would need to expect a war. Which would require a rather better understanding of Hitler's goals then in OTL. IDK if it's realistic, but it may be needed for OP's challenge (unless France actually does something).
 
Originally posted by Zaius
As I said, Warsaw would need to expect a war. Which would require a rather better understanding of Hitler's goals then in OTL. IDK if it's realistic, but it may be needed for OP's challenge (unless France actually does something).
I don't think Poland was even capable of spending more money on defence anymore. And Poles wouldn't have needed to expect the war - they would have needed to know for sure the war will start at least in 1940, not, let's say, 2 years later. Because if they had spent most of their budget on Polish military before 1939, Poland would have been bankrupt soon after. They would have needed to consider possibility that Hitler would back down, discouraged by Polish rapid armament and western support for Poland. And then what? No government would take such a chance. Unless you send them a time traveller.
 
Originally posted by mack8


And pay for them with what?



Again, that is a very expensive solution, and confiscating planes made for export meant even less money.
Not to mention the idea of building do mant types of planes (P-24, PZL-50, PZL-50, PZL-38) seems to me a little too much. It is easier to produce in larger numbers and cheaper to mantain only 1-2 types of plane.



And again, pay for them with what?
Problem is pre-war Poland was poor and simply couldn't afford such large projects.

I hear you, yes i did not discounted the factor of money. In fact, my ATL only have the 200 tanks and the PZL-24 as extra gear, the other stuff has been obtained by swapping priorities and diverting existing resources. But imo i still think the rearmaments of Poland neighbours USSR and Germany should have given them pause for thought. I know that for some quite baffling reason they did not consider a possible war with Germany until 1939, isn't every country usually preparing for ALL eventualities? Common sense should have dictated caution.

As for export planes, well in summer 1939 it was already clear things are getting dark, what did those export money do for Poland except fall in German hands probably? National defence should have taken precedence above anything else. Of course, we have the benefit of hindsight, but still Poland's OTL military situation in 1939 situation was the result of complacency as much as mismanagement of existing resources (you probably could say the same thing about Romania, France etc.) perhaps thing COULD have been different on that front if those in charge would have a bit more inspired.

Btw about the PZLs, my ATL has the PZL-24 as an interim fighter built until PZL-50 enters production. The PZL-45 swapped priorities with LWS-3, and PZL-48 and PZL-46 (which i postponed or cancelled to free resources for other programs) were planned to enter production anyway in late 1939 - 1940 as you know. All of them were planned to be build OTL, but in a different order.

Anyway, another change i was having fun with is making the PZL-23, the mainstay of PoAF, a bit better. Historically it's capability was severly compromised by it's conception, namely that drag and weight inducing gondola thing under it of questionable value. Don't remember any other single seat recce bomber of the time to have one, a single engine aircraft is simply to small to be fitted with such an installation without serious degradation in performance.

If those who issued the specification would have been a bit more inspired (again) and put more emphasis on speed and simplicity, then without that gondola thing PZL-23 would have been quite bit faster, maybe 20-30 kph i don't know. But speed is life isn't it? If they wanted a bombardier have him aim through some windows in the floor (like Fairey Battle), and if really necessary have him fire a MG through the floor (like IAR-37). Mind you that doesn't mean the PZL-23 wouldn't still have been a sitting duck against Luftwaffe, but every little helps. To give it another small chance of causing a bit more losses to the germans, they could have improved it more often, in OTL they built 40 A and 210 B until 1938, but in my ATL they only build say 100 or so PZL-23B until 1937 and then about 100 of an improved PZL-23C, fitted with Pegasus-12 engine and 3 blade prop (same as the one on PZL-37A), which should give it a bit more speed again. They could be delivered in 1938, they had all the elements to make it happen.
 
Orginally posted by mack8
I know that for some quite baffling reason they did not consider a possible war with Germany until 1939, isn't every country usually preparing for ALL eventualities? Common sense should have dictated caution.

Many German generals themselves didn't believe they would be ready for war in 1939. Poland (and the rest of the world) didn't account for Hitler actually pushing for war and being willing to almost kill German economy to achieve means for it. And Poles already were spending a large part of their own budget for military. It probably could have been managed better, but I'm not sure how much better. And Poles simply didn't have much money. They almost begged for credits from their western allies, but they decided to help them too late.

As for export planes, well in summer 1939 it was already clear things are getting dark, what did those export money do for Poland except fall in German hands probably? National defence should have taken precedence above anything else.

That was possible and it was considered. Frankly, I'm not sure why it hasn't been done.

And another thing. Would even so improved Polish Air Force work so much better than IOTL? Remember, than most of Polish planes were spread among armies, with only 2 units (Brygada Pościgowa - Pursuit Brigade and Brygada Bombowa - Bomber Brigade) actually prepeard to fight as a larger force. German planes, still technologically superior and with much bigger numbers would defeat PAF anyway. Sure, it would cost Germans more (significantly more, especially if Pursuit Brigade had P-24s) but they would have won anyway. So we need also to change PAF strategy and tactics to make a really significant improvement.

BTW: I understand that changes in PAF are only part of improvements in Polish armed forces. Because let's face it, it was the Heer (ground forces) that won the Polish campaign, not the Luftwaffe.

Anyway, in your ATL Poland makes all those preparations much earlier than in 1939. However I'm not convinced Poland was able to make many of them. Better management, sure, but there was still a matter of money and Polish production capabilities. Some things could have been done (like keeping planes intended export), some are debatable (like buying better engings for your PZL-23c - not that is a bad idea), many of them seem to me simply too expensive or not quite possible in a short period of time (like building 200-300 7TPs tanks and 10TP or 14TPs which weren't even more than prototypes in 1939).
 
And another thing. Would even so improved Polish Air Force work so much better than IOTL? Remember, than most of Polish planes were spread among armies, with only 2 units (Brygada Pościgowa - Pursuit Brigade and Brygada Bombowa - Bomber Brigade) actually prepeard to fight as a larger force. German planes, still technologically superior and with much bigger numbers would defeat PAF anyway. Sure, it would cost Germans more (significantly more, especially if Pursuit Brigade had P-24s) but they would have won anyway. So we need also to change PAF strategy and tactics to make a really significant improvement.

BTW: I understand that changes in PAF are only part of improvements in Polish armed forces. Because let's face it, it was the Heer (ground forces) that won the Polish campaign, not the Luftwaffe.

Anyway, in your ATL Poland makes all those preparations much earlier than in 1939. However I'm not convinced Poland was able to make many of them. Better management, sure, but there was still a matter of money and Polish production capabilities. Some things could have been done (like keeping planes intended export), some are debatable (like buying better engings for your PZL-23c - not that is a bad idea), many of them seem to me simply too expensive or not quite possible in a short period of time (like building 200-300 7TPs tanks and 10TP or 14TPs which weren't even more than prototypes in 1939).
Even with the boosted capabilities i was suggesting PoAF can't win against Luftwaffe, but inflict significantly heavier losses, which is part of the whole idea to keep Poland fighting until 1940. As for the engines for PZL-23C, as i was suggesting a reduction in PZL-37 numbers, most of the engines could come from there, they were all in the pipeline and paid for anyway, though this probably slightly delays PZL-37 production.

As for the tanks, building the 10TP prototype did took an inordinate long time, maybe they could speed things up in my TL but like i said there won't be many of them ready in 1939. As far as the 7TP is concerned prior to the war they have ordered it in ridiculously small yearly batches, while in 1938 and 1939 they rushed orders for hundreds, though it was obviously too late. So they need to start in 1936 to get another couple of hundred by 1939 (i know that they don't have money OTL, but in this ATL perhaps "something" triggers a more comprehensive rearming program). Maybe they reduce the numbers of the TK tankettes (570 in all!), which weren't terribly useful anyway, to free some funds for more tanks. Finally the 4TP light tank (not the 14TP) with it's 20mm gun would have been useful against the Panzer I and II, but then they put 20mm guns on some of those TK tankettes, so perhaps it's better to just upgun as many tankettes as they can with such guns (and to the TKS-D standard SPG with the 37 mm Bofors)
 
Originally posted by mack8
Even with the boosted capabilities i was suggesting PoAF can't win against Luftwaffe, but inflict significantly heavier losses, which is part of the whole idea to keep Poland fighting until 1940. As for the engines for PZL-23C, as i was suggesting a reduction in PZL-37 numbers, most of the engines could come from there, they were all in the pipeline and paid for anyway, though this probably slightly delays PZL-37 production.

Improved PAF would need some better tactics against the Germans, since even P-24s were slower than Bf-109s; but they would at least were able to catch German bombers. Anyway, while P-23c is no a bad idea, I think Poles should concetrate on fighters, or rather put all their recources on 1-2 types of fighters instead of wasting time, money and workforce (especially constructors) on various ideas. In 1939 Poles needed most of all fighters. Bombers, due to German numerical and technolgical advantage would live rather shortly.

As for the tanks, building the 10TP prototype did took an inordinate long time, maybe they could speed things up in my TL but like i said there won't be many of them ready in 1939. As far as the 7TP is concerned prior to the war they have ordered it in ridiculously small yearly batches, while in 1938 and 1939 they rushed orders for hundreds, though it was obviously too late.

IIRC 10TP prototype proved to be a disappointment. Perhaps 14TP, if the Polish engin for it is ready earlier (which was possible) might have a better chance.
7TPs were originally ordered in small number for several reasons: 1. Money, of course; 2. Poland earlier had no industry capable of producing relatively complicated tanks on larger scale (see Centralny Okręg Przemysłowy - Central Industrial Region); 3. There were still doubts among generals (not only Polish ones) about how useful tanks can be on the battlefield.

So they need to start in 1936 to get another couple of hundred by 1939 (i know that they don't have money OTL, but in this ATL perhaps "something" triggers a more comprehensive rearming program).

Poles did start such modernization of their armed forces in that time (after Piłsudski's death) but it took time, since they had no money, little industry and no wish to actually start a war, so they had to be prepared both for peace and war; they couldn't just throw everything on war in 1939 unlike Hitler, fully prepared to almost kill German economy, because he knew there would be war he intended to start.

Maybe they reduce the numbers of the TK tankettes (570 in all!), which weren't terribly useful anyway, to free some funds for more tanks.

TK-3 and TKS production ended in 1936.

Finally the 4TP light tank (not the 14TP) with it's 20mm gun would have been useful against the Panzer I and II, but then they put 20mm guns on some of those TK tankettes, so perhaps it's better to just upgun as many tankettes as they can with such guns (and to the TKS-D standard SPG with the 37 mm Bofors)

I'm not convinced about usefulness of the TKS-D, but TKS with 20mm cannons did some damage, so perhaps... But again, it would take time, resources and money. And personally, I think 4TPs would be more or less useless. Just like with fighters, if you know the war is near, concentrate on 1-2 types, without wasting time, money and skilled workforce on many models.
 
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