- The Tories never reform under Cameron, and keep squabbling amongst themselves, electing leaders like IDS and Howard for factional gain.
- Meanwhile, Kennedy gets over his alcoholism, and is revitalised.
- The 2005 election is another disaster for the Tories, whilst the Lib Dems grow in seats quite significantly, with Kennedy being given the credit.
- In a 2007 election under Brown, the still-weak Tories start getting their seats taken away by Lib Dems and Labour alike. The Lib Dems are now on around 70 or 75.
- The continued success of Labour is attributed to Blairism, and the party shifts economically to the right in the wake of the 2008 crash (probably with a new leader - David Miliband?).
- With the Tories unable to seem like a credible opposition (their economic policy is the same as Labour, and their social policy seems like a throwback to the 1980s), the Lib Dems start gradually emerging as a socially and economically left-wing party (the Orange Bookers haven't increased in influence as much, since Kennedy is still very popular with the party).
- The 2012 election results in a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party, partially discredited by the crash, although their economic policy allows them to take a bunch of Tory seats. The Conservatives descend even further into factional infighting, whilst the Lib Dems are increasingly seen as the main opposition to Miliband, and reach around a hundred seats. Labour go into coalition with the SNP and Plaid, giving them a majority, but at the cost of promising a referendum on Scottish independence (being fairly confident of victory).
- The Scottish referendum results in Scotland remaining in the UK, but as in OTL, the SNP are very aggrieved at this - Labour and the Scottish Tories both campaigned together, although the Lib Dems weren't massively committed to one side or the other. They leave the coalition; Miliband tries to govern as a minority, but this doesn't last long.
- Meanwhile, the rightward move of Miliband's Labour causes a bunch of the left-wingers like Corbyn to break away, reforming the ILP or something.
- A general election in 2014 or 2015, after the minority government finally breaks down, results in an even more hung parliament. Labour are reduced to around 200, with the ILP helping to split the vote in some key marginals and winning in several strongholds; the SNP take over all of Scotland; the Conservatives are below 100; and the Lib Dems achieve a breakthrough due to electoral pacts with the ILP, taking around 200 seats. Many of these seats are traditional Labour strongholds, with many feeling betrayed by the response to the crash (a sort of slightly more restrained austerity). A new minority government is formed, consisting of Lib Dems with ILP, SNP, and Plaid support.
- Now old and ailing, but still very popular among the party, Charles Kennedy becomes Prime Minister, and holds the position for around a year before stepping down for health reasons.
Not very likely, I know, but...