AHC/Plausibility Check: Independent Deseret/Mormon Homeland

In balkanizing the United States, it seems, and independent Deseret is a must. I can't think of any region in the United States that has combated so much with the federal government to the point that independence would be palatable/possible (other than the South of course) than Utah. Though the Civil War is a draw for most students of American history (and understandably so), I think they tend to look over the development of the Mormons in Utah and their relationship with the federal government in the years leading up to the Civil War, culminating in the bloody Utah War. With all this in mind, how realistic is an independent Deseret? If an independent Mormon state is possible, under what conditions would they occur?

One problem for an independent Mormon state would be the White Horse Prophecy, an unconfirmed but occasionally reference prophecy concerning the role of the Mormon Church in end-time America. On occasion, Prophets will allude to a prophecy purpotedly made by Joseph Smith which predicted the Mormon Church would save the United States when the Constitution "hangs by a thread." I'm not sure how "patriotic" mid-19th century Mormons would be as to prevent the establishment of an independent Utah.

Another problem is, of course, the military situation. Though the Mormons proved to be fierce in their continual clashes with the federal government, they could not truly push back federal troops from Utah. I have a difficult time imagining the federal government would be less determined to hold on to rogue territories in the wake of, say, CSA-victory scenario.

But what do you think?
 
Independent Deseret is more or less a pipe dream; people want to see a balkanized US, they think of Deseret, and put it on a map. In practice, the fate of a sustained attempt at Mormon Rebellion would probably end up like the various Indian wars the US fought; there aren't enough Mormons, and the ability to project power is limited. Eventually they would be crushed.
 

birdboy2000

Banned
Deseret's least bad chance is probably as a filibuster state ala Texas - yankees (if polygamist ones) carving a state out of Mexico would be far more acceptable to US policymakers than them carving one out of the US.

Mexico won't like it, of course, but Mexico's ability to project power into its claims in Utah is limited, and the Nauvoo Legion is at least as good as anything the Texans had at the war's start.

It would, however, require both an internal Mormon PoD (to make them want independence to begin with; OTL, they only migrated into Utah during the Mexican-American War, at a point in said war where it was all but assured that the province would be under US suzerainty after the war's conclusion) and a lengthy delay or outright aversion of the war. (Or, at best, a far more limited conflict, involving only the claims of the Republic of Texas.)

And temporary independence is one thing; it is another to maintain it, and that would require widespread recognition and not just disinterest - it's a lot easier to conquer Utah once railroads come into play and the natives who might provide Deseret a buffer zone in its early years fall victim to disease and conquest.
 
My brain is dry right now, so I don't know how helpful I can be, but I think your best shot is to have a PoD which results in a much weaker U.S., perhaps one which balkanized shortly after the Revolution. Then, the Mormon state would have fewer threats to its independence. Also, perhaps Joseph Smith doesn't die as in OTL, which could result in more people converted, resulting in a stronger Deseret/Utah.
 
Independent Deseret is more or less a pipe dream; people want to see a balkanized US, they think of Deseret, and put it on a map. In practice, the fate of a sustained attempt at Mormon Rebellion would probably end up like the various Indian wars the US fought; there aren't enough Mormons, and the ability to project power is limited. Eventually they would be crushed.

I think you have a point there. Personally, I think Deseret is a cooler name than Utah, and it looks pretty neat on your standard balkanized USA map. That's probably the reason why that happens frequently.

Deseret's least bad chance is probably as a filibuster state ala Texas - yankees (if polygamist ones) carving a state out of Mexico would be far more acceptable to US policymakers than them carving one out of the US.

Mexico won't like it, of course, but Mexico's ability to project power into its claims in Utah is limited, and the Nauvoo Legion is at least as good as anything the Texans had at the war's start.

It would, however, require both an internal Mormon PoD (to make them want independence to begin with; OTL, they only migrated into Utah during the Mexican-American War, at a point in said war where it was all but assured that the province would be under US suzerainty after the war's conclusion) and a lengthy delay or outright aversion of the war. (Or, at best, a far more limited conflict, involving only the claims of the Republic of Texas.)

And temporary independence is one thing; it is another to maintain it, and that would require widespread recognition and not just disinterest - it's a lot easier to conquer Utah once railroads come into play and the natives who might provide Deseret a buffer zone in its early years fall victim to disease and conquest.

You read my mind to a certain extent: I should have included in the title "alternate Mormon homeland." The one time I remember this being incorporated in a timeline was in wilcoxchar's Union and Liberty TL, with Deseret being in Canada.

Yeah, I could a Mormon filibuster into Mexican territory (á la alternate outcome to the Mexican American War with Utah firmly being in Mexican hands). One of my many abortive TL ideas would have been a Clay victory in the election of 1844. This would have included, of course, an averted war with Mexico, and perhaps a delayed American Civil War (with more brutal consequences). I could see the Mormons, in such a TL, flee into Mexico anyway (with Texas as an inspiration). Whether the United States would intervene if Mormons attempted independence in such a scenario would remain to be seen.

My brain is dry right now, so I don't know how helpful I can be, but I think your best shot is to have a PoD which results in a much weaker U.S., perhaps one which balkanized shortly after the Revolution. Then, the Mormon state would have fewer threats to its independence. Also, perhaps Joseph Smith doesn't die as in OTL, which could result in more people converted, resulting in a stronger Deseret/Utah.

I think your latter scenario would provide a more interesting PoD. Mormonism nearly fell apart after Smith died, with a leadership crisis brewing between Brigham Young, Sidney Rigdon, and others, with Young ultimately becoming head of what's considered the mainline Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints. If Smith had lived longer, a coherent line of succession might have been established. Smith in the wilderness would also make for an interesting TL, and how his continuance as Prophet-President might have affected revelation.
 
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