AHC/Plausability Check: Napoleon III keeps Lombardy

After the initial defeats in the 2nd Italo-Austrian War, the initial agreement between Paris and Vienna took a rather... unique route in terms of the eventual transfer of territory to Sardinia. According to the terms of the Villafrancia Armistice, the Austrians were to cede most of Lombardia to France in exchange for French agreement to allow the disposed monarchs of the central Italian states to be restored to their thrones, before France would transfer the province to Sardinia in exchange for Savoy and Nice. These terms, however, were widely despised by the revolutionary-minded Italians for obvious reasons, who felt betrayed by having central Italy handed back to the Habsburgs and being prevented from marching on to take Veneto. It was only after some time and arm-twisting by the more moderate conservative factions in Turin, as well as concession to the Italian states ascending to Sardinia, that the final transfer of territory took place.

Suppose, than, that King Emmanuel; either listening to Garibaldi and his revolutionary forces and faced with a stiffer spine by Austrian and French diplomats, renegades on its secret promise to France on the grounds that they weren't brought into the peace negotiations as an equal partner and that Napoleon III broke his promises by pursuing a unilateral peace. That leaves the Emperor with one of the key provinces of central Italy, while simultaneously the position of the Papacy isent overly undermined. How would such a situation affect the trajectory of Italian unification and the relations between the three powers?


Does Napoleon III establish a friendly regime in Milan, recreating the kingdom of his illustrious uncle? The Emperor hadent exactly abandoned political interests in the peninsula and could very well find sympathizers among the more conservative forces, raising the possibility of an alternative , Catholic pole to the romantic secular nationalism expressed by the revolutionaries for a unified Italian state. How would the restored Habsburg monarchs react?
 
Italian unification is probably curtailed though some Italian League/Customs Union type might stay.
Do you have a map of who holds and claims each part?
 
Italian unification is probably curtailed though some Italian League/Customs Union type might stay.
Do you have a map of who holds and claims each part?

Let's try this one...

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  • Region 1-9 would go to France
  • Region 10-17 stay with Austria
  • Tuscany, Modenia, Lucca, and Parma are to be restored to their Habsburg client rulers
  • The Papal States keeps all its territory, due to no invasion by Republican-Piedmontese forces.
  • Two Sicilies are under their Bourbon rulers, as pre-war.
  • Sardinia keeps Nice and Savoy, which may or may not be claimed by France
 
After the initial defeats in the 2nd Italo-Austrian War, the initial agreement between Paris and Vienna took a rather... unique route in terms of the eventual transfer of territory to Sardinia. According to the terms of the Villafrancia Armistice, the Austrians were to cede most of Lombardia to France in exchange for French agreement to allow the disposed monarchs of the central Italian states to be restored to their thrones, before France would transfer the province to Sardinia in exchange for Savoy and Nice. These terms, however, were widely despised by the revolutionary-minded Italians for obvious reasons, who felt betrayed by having central Italy handed back to the Habsburgs and being prevented from marching on to take Veneto. It was only after some time and arm-twisting by the more moderate conservative factions in Turin, as well as concession to the Italian states ascending to Sardinia, that the final transfer of territory took place.

Suppose, than, that King Emmanuel; either listening to Garibaldi and his revolutionary forces and faced with a stiffer spine by Austrian and French diplomats, renegades on its secret promise to France on the grounds that they weren't brought into the peace negotiations as an equal partner and that Napoleon III broke his promises by pursuing a unilateral peace. That leaves the Emperor with one of the key provinces of central Italy, while simultaneously the position of the Papacy isent overly undermined. How would such a situation affect the trajectory of Italian unification and the relations between the three powers?


Does Napoleon III establish a friendly regime in Milan, recreating the kingdom of his illustrious uncle? The Emperor hadent exactly abandoned political interests in the peninsula and could very well find sympathizers among the more conservative forces, raising the possibility of an alternative , Catholic pole to the romantic secular nationalism expressed by the revolutionaries for a unified Italian state. How would the restored Habsburg monarchs react?
Maybe one or more Diadochi states in Italy ? Maybe a Hellenic Diadochi Italy act as some sort of patron over various Italic tribes trying to balance the power. Possibly has to deal with the Celtic invasions from time to time.
 
I would think at some point France and Piedmont-Sardinia may come to blows. France likely wins such an arrangement, and would make territorial gains at the expense of Sardinia. They could be as little as Nice and Savoy or as much as all of Piedmont (granting territorial contiguity). Piedmont north of the river Po could perhaps work.

However, can France reasonably hold on to such territory? Why would folks who had rebelled against Austria be more content with France? Cultural similarity? A more liberal politics? The Italian nationalism is going to be an issue.

A French established Kingdom of North Italy that controls Piedmont (including Savoy-Nice), Lombardy, and Veneto might be an interesting polity.
 
I would think at some point France and Piedmont-Sardinia may come to blows. France likely wins such an arrangement, and would make territorial gains at the expense of Sardinia. They could be as little as Nice and Savoy or as much as all of Piedmont (granting territorial contiguity). Piedmont north of the river Po could perhaps work.

However, can France reasonably hold on to such territory? Why would folks who had rebelled against Austria be more content with France? Cultural similarity? A more liberal politics? The Italian nationalism is going to be an issue.

A French established Kingdom of North Italy that controls Piedmont (including Savoy-Nice), Lombardy, and Veneto might be an interesting polity.

Personally, I think Nappy III might establish such a Kingdom (with himself as monarch) along "Liberal Imperial" lines like the reforms he required from the Papal States for his protection. Integrating it directly into France might be problematic, but as The Proffesor suggested a more conservative and tighter union between the Italian states is a real possability. Perhaps the Habsburg rulers would try to co-opt Italian nationalism like Bismark did in Germany, creating a "Confederation of Crowns"?
 
My memory could be at fault, but wasn't this the same plan that involved the restoration of a Murat in Naples instead of a Bourbon? Basically Napoléon tried to get Austria to agree to divide Italy with the French. French gains in North Italy (i.e. Lombardy-Veneto) would go to Savoy. Austria would get the middle - Tuscany, Modena and Parma-Lucca under their Habsburg rulers/proxies. And the Bourbons in Naples would be replaced by the Murats.

Not sure where the Pope fitted in with all this - probably in the middle Austrian-governed section. Which makes sense since neither Napoléon nor Vittorio Emanuele were exactly devout rulers who would give the pope time of day (although both were far from being as anti-clerical as Plon-Plon or IIRC Cavour)
 
My memory could be at fault, but wasn't this the same plan that involved the restoration of a Murat in Naples instead of a Bourbon? Basically Napoléon tried to get Austria to agree to divide Italy with the French. French gains in North Italy (i.e. Lombardy-Veneto) would go to Savoy. Austria would get the middle - Tuscany, Modena and Parma-Lucca under their Habsburg rulers/proxies. And the Bourbons in Naples would be replaced by the Murats.

Not sure where the Pope fitted in with all this - probably in the middle Austrian-governed section. Which makes sense since neither Napoléon nor Vittorio Emanuele were exactly devout rulers who would give the pope time of day (although both were far from being as anti-clerical as Plon-Plon or IIRC Cavour)

I wasen't aware of those plans; I personally though the Bourbons were considered solid defenders of the Conservative order on the peninsula and there was a general agreement not to rock the boat that much. Though that's certainly a possability in the event of a more complete victory over Austria... but that woulden't fit with the POD of the Villafrancia Armistice terms playing out as historical.

As for the Papacy, I do know that both Napoleon III and Emperor Franz Joseph were keen on securing his temporal position and the integrity of the Papal States; it plays well to their Catholic peasentry, after all, which are the solid foundation on which their legitimacy is built. Napoleon had already sent troops into Rome to liberate the city from the Roman Republic revolutionaries to restore the Pope to his seat (Albeit only after he agreed to institute the somewhat liberal reforms of the Code Napoleon). I imagine the Papacy will be kept at the status quo... though in the event of closer ties between the Italian states he could make a useful figurehead/head of state of a joint Habsburg-Bonaparte state-building project should Napoleon III's efforts to rebuild his relations with Austria result in an eventual alliance between the two.
 
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