AHC: Plague of Justinian Results in Larger, More Powerful Sassanids

[Agatho]

Something I've seen thrown around a couple of times on this site is that the best way to arrest the decline of the Byzantine Empire would be to avert the Plague of Justinian, but from what I understand this same plague had a crippling effect on the Sassanids as well, at a time when they had a strong army and capable leadership.

Is it at all likely that in a scenario where the plague was averted, the East Romans would find themselves even more hard pressed to defend against Persia? Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to envision a scenario where the absence of the Plague of Justinian results in Persia taking and holding large parts of Roman Empire's Middle Eastern territories, long enough that they are seen by Persian monarchs as integral parts of their empire that must be defended from the Romans.

What sort of effects might this have? Religiously I could see the Persians supporting Miaphysite churches to a much greater degree. Could this result in an understanding with Axum that butterflies away their conflict over Yemen?

I'd be interested to hear what those more knowledgeable than myself have to say on the matter.

 

[The Undead Martyr]

U admit that I am interested to see a timeline with an unambiguous Sassanid victory- say Heraclius is captured by the Avars.

This leaves the remnants of the Exarchates to pick up the pieces (Ravenna, Greece, and North Africa and Sicily, on top of the wealth and the fleet from Byzantine exodus, would presumably be enough to crush the Southern Lombards at least) while the Sassanids manage to fight off the Arabs by themselves and the Avars run rampant over the Balkans. It would make for a very interesting alternate timeline.

Alternately a scenario where Justinians conquests are limited to North Africa plus Magna Graecia in the West, leaving the Ostrogothic Kingdom and an immaculate Italy to continue on as a major power, butting heads with the Lombards, Slavs, and Franks.

 

[trajen777]

The difficulty is that diseases strike populated areas much harder then non populated areas. Examples would the plague of Athens, Plague of Justinian, and the Plague of Marcus Arailius. So when each of these hit then Rome, Constantinople, and Athens were dramatically hurt more then the barbarians (tribes) or loose fitting nations. So the Persians being not as urbanized would suffer much less then Byz.