AHC: Permanently Balkanized China post Yuan

I'm actually...not sure.:hushedface:
Vietnam was ruled from China from 207 BC (under Nanyue) till 938 AD (under Southern Han), with the longest break in that period being 544 to 602 AD (a time when China was disunited anyway).
From 963 to 979 AD, Northern Song reunited the former Tang possessions - with the two exceptions of Liao and Vietnam.
Since 938, the longest period Vietnam has been ruled from China was 1407 to 1428.
 
Thanks. A generation? Not even 2?

Disunity could last two; many of the broad strokes could potential last two or more, especially outside Han regions. But yes, I'm saying that map wouldn't be constant for two generations. The odds that no state/warlord/movement/clique would seize anything from the neighbors in that time seems a vanishingly small prospect.

Tan China and Canton have the worst defensive terrain between them but the fact that Tan has to also defend the North and East it would not go full on Blue.

Wait, not only is Balkanization impossible but China WILL always and derministically conquer all of PRC territory and more? And only if they don´t want to they would not? That´s quite a big claim given Ming China never took all this territory.

Hrm? A lot to parse there. Balkanization is supremely unlikely (implausible) as a long-term outcome given the conditions and timing discussed. Impossible, no.

China will always and deterministically conquer that stuff? Certainly not. Obviously not. Even in the post you're replying to, I specifically suggested a reunited China in this era could abstain from conquering the west, far north, and southeast of the modern PRC.

But whenever the Han core was unified, China dominated these regions and others until an eventual Chinese crisis equalized the odds again. Sometimes that meant administration, usually it meant protectorates. The Qing, Republic, and Communists all treated the periphery as national territory, so the easiest "Balkanization" would simply be to continue the older treatment of the far territories: they are peoples in the Chinese sphere, but not "part of China".

If you look at the Ming, they elicited some degree of obeisance from, or annexed, the regions I described. Now the recognition of Chinese supremacy was fleeting from the portions of Mongolia they couldn't physically reach, and obviously changed regarding the Manchurians' states, but that's where I'm coming from. Most successful dynasties that controlled a united China, did as much. So protectorates are hardly a controversial thing to expect.

The Yuan were the last hurrah of non-state peoples having an advantage over major neighboring states. Not only had technology moved on and steppe-adjacent peoples adapted, but Ming China in particular underwent a massive population boom that's next to impossible to avert unless the Europeans fail to engage with the Americas.

Sorry for the incomplete response; I need to focus on my imminent international flight. I'll try to get back to you more fully later.
 
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That really depends. They are all going to be Buddhist, with exceptionally strong undercurrents of Confucianism which will remain the ruling philosophical paradigm. The Grays are no exception to this, as they are, by now, heavily Sinitic. A good route to go with would be to have the Gray one be a Yuan remnant. Yunnan had strong Mongol loyalties and a decent number of Muslims, and it lasted the longest of all of the Chinese remnants that the Ming conquered. Islam is a loose thread in China at this time, as is Christianity, though it is a far weaker party. The Portuguese had a lot of success converting the South, they even got the Ming court to convert en masse when they were almost defeated, and the priest that accomplished it was furious that Portugal refused to help them out.

But really, for the most part this is your sandbox. OTL can give some ideas, but the PODs and the event chains are what is going to determine the outcome.

I've seen it argued that Yunnan's Mongol loyalties/associations were the reason it was pointedly annexed. The Ming were just too anti-Mongol to abide its existence. If that's the case, arguably the best opportunity for a neo-Dali state might be a fortuitously-timed rebellion there against the Yuan.
 
Compare some previous periods of balkanization.
From 907 to 963, none of the Five Dynasties was able to reunite the Ten Kingdoms of South.
In 200s, it looked like Cao Cao would reunite Han empire in a few years. That, however, ran into Red Cliff. For the next 50 years, the 3 Kingdoms were stalemated, until 263.

So: OTL Wu won battle of Poyanghu in 1363, and managed to conquer Dahan, which enabled Wu to turn against other foes - Zhang Shicheng (then took till 1367), Yuan and Daxia (took till 1371).
If Wu/Dahan war grinds down to a stalemate in 1360s, would Wu ever be able to conquer Zhang Shicheng?
 
Disunity could last two; many of the broad strokes could potential last two or more, especially outside Han regions. But yes, I'm saying that map wouldn't be constant for two generations. The odds that no state/warlord/movement/clique would seize anything from the neighbors in that time seems a vanishingly small prospect.
Hrm? A lot to parse there. Balkanization is supremely unlikely (implausible) as a long-term outcome given the conditions and timing discussed. Impossible, no.
I´ve divided the places to be as balanced as possible and as geographically protected as possible. From the Yangtze River to the Sichuan Basin, we see far less favourable scenarios where a status quo holds up. I will try to come up with an actual example with alternate Red Turban rebellion.

China will always and deterministically conquer that stuff? Certainly not. Obviously not. Even in the post you're replying to, I specifically suggested a reunited China in this era could abstain from conquering the west, far north, and southeast of the modern PRC.
You implied that only if they didn´t want to conquer them they wouldn´t.

But whenever the Han core was unified, China dominated these regions and others until an eventual Chinese crisis equalized the odds again. Sometimes that meant administration, usually it meant protectorates. The Qing, Republic, and Communists all treated the periphery as national territory, so the easiest "Balkanization" would simply be to continue the older treatment of the far territories: they are peoples in the Chinese sphere, but not "part of China".
They dominated them sporadically and at times, so no they wouldn´t necessarily be puppets(tributaries yes but that´s a different relationship)

If you look at the Ming, they elicited some degree of obeisance from, or annexed, the regions I described. Now the recognition of Chinese supremacy was fleeting from the portions of Mongolia they couldn't physically reach, and obviously changed regarding the Manchurians' states, but that's where I'm coming from. Most successful dynasties that controlled a united China, did as much. So protectorates are hardly a controversial thing to expect.
It´s not but it´s also quite odd that you expect the best case scenario(relatively at least) for a united China in a AHC for a divided one. I mean it´s like one created a thread about how Germany could win WW1 and everyone kept imagining scenarios where a lighting killed all the German officers.

The Yuan were the last hurrah of non-state peoples having an advantage over major neighboring states. Not only had technology moved on and steppe-adjacent peoples adapted, but Ming China in particular underwent a massive population boom that's next to impossible to avert unless the Europeans fail to engage with the Americas.
What about the Manchu?

Sorry for the incomplete response; I need to focus on my imminent international flight. I'll try to get back to you more fully later.
Don´t worry.


Compare some previous periods of balkanization.
From 907 to 963, none of the Five Dynasties was able to reunite the Ten Kingdoms of South.
In 200s, it looked like Cao Cao would reunite Han empire in a few years. That, however, ran into Red Cliff. For the next 50 years, the 3 Kingdoms were stalemated, until 263.

So: OTL Wu won battle of Poyanghu in 1363, and managed to conquer Dahan, which enabled Wu to turn against other foes - Zhang Shicheng (then took till 1367), Yuan and Daxia (took till 1371).
If Wu/Dahan war grinds down to a stalemate in 1360s, would Wu ever be able to conquer Zhang Shicheng?
Could a cooperation between Dahan and Dazhou creat the Tan and Green Chinas of the map? While for example the Han Shantong and his son would be Red China?
 
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Ok this should be final version:
jHP3zy9.png
BTW, some talked about the horse producing zone of China? Where exactly is it?
Also at this point how much of Ming China population would be in Red China? 30%?

I agree with scholar. You can divide China in various pieces, but problem is how to keep it divided.
Balkanizing China should long-term project and it should be done slowly. But the core of China always will be linguistically, culturally very close to each other like Russia, Belarus and Ukraine.
It is possible to make North China, South China and Dali permanently divided.
North can be further divided in culturally different regions in 19th century. Zungaria (Northern Xinjian), Uyghurs (Southern Xinjian), Mongolia (Inner+Outer), Manchuria (most likely Jurchen dominated) and Muslim Hui-Chinese(Gansu, Qinhai and Ningxia).
South can be divided on Ideological bases and by georaphy in mid XX century: Peoples Republic of Communist Southern China, and Republic of Southern China (blue one in the map) and Republic of Sichuan (like Bangladesh).
 
I agree with scholar. You can divide China in various pieces, but problem is how to keep it divided.
Balkanizing China should long-term project and it should be done slowly. But the core of China always will be linguistically, culturally very close to each other like Russia, Belarus and Ukraine.
It is possible to make North China, South China and Dali permanently divided.
North can be further divided in culturally different regions in 19th century. Zungaria (Northern Xinjian), Uyghurs (Southern Xinjian), Mongolia (Inner+Outer), Manchuria (most likely Jurchen dominated) and Muslim Hui-Chinese(Gansu, Qinhai and Ningxia).
South can be divided on Ideological bases and by georaphy in mid XX century: Peoples Republic of Communist Southern China, and Republic of Southern China (blue one in the map) and Republic of Sichuan (like Bangladesh).
I don´t think you can really create such a big muslim state, they are barely a majority in in Ningxia. I´d rather create a normal regional one.
 
I don´t think you can really create such a big muslim state, they are barely a majority in in Ningxia. I´d rather create a normal regional one.

I think within 600-700 years you can create as many Chinese Muslim as needed.

EDIT: Population of Gansu+Qinhai+Ningxia is around 35 million. China has some 11 million muslims. So if we can make post-Yuan muslimization rate twice as quick as OTL then we will have some 25 million muslim Chinese. It will be 2/3 of ATL Hui-Chinese state.
 
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I think within 600-700 years you can create as many Chinese Muslim as needed.

EDIT: Population of Gansu+Qinhai+Ningxia is around 35 million. China has some 11 million muslims. So if we can make post-Yuan muslimization rate twice as quick as OTL then we will have some 25 million muslim Chinese. It will be 2/3 of ATL Hui-Chinese state.
Maybe but that´s a odd way to do it, I´d prefer another way.

Also first of all Qinhai is probably going to be Tibetan if it´s not Chinese, second the country is too small and if you want to make it viable and add another province like Shaanxy you would need 35 million Muslims to have majority in such country.
 
Maybe but that´s a odd way to do it, I´d prefer another way.

Also first of all Qinhai is probably going to be Tibetan if it´s not Chinese, second the country is too small and if you want to make it viable and add another province like Shaanxy you would need 35 million Muslims to have majority in such country.

My point is if you want to create culturally different Chinese region better to be based on religion.
Actually Hui-Muslim dynasty is aka Tanguts. So I included Qinhai (or can be just some northern part of it). Shaanxi is birth place of Chinese culture, so it will remain always China.
 
I´ve divided the places to be as balanced as possible and as geographically protected as possible. From the Yangtze River to the Sichuan Basin, we see far less favourable scenarios where a status quo holds up. I will try to come up with an actual example with alternate Red Turban rebellion.

Which is fine so long as we to ignore the human element. In practice geographic determination is insufficient. The outcome needs to be geographically (or otherwise) over-determined to counteract the inevitable reactions when one of these people wins a battle, or another does something to alienate the common people - the 老百姓. Or what have you.

Nothing succeeds like success, fools can sink any state, and the 1984 style balance of power proves a short-term solution when compared to the historical record. These are at the end of the day small states with negligible strategic depth; the first significant setback would require atypical talent or good fortune to survive. More likely, the first significant setback would be the end of the road.

I actually do appreciate what you've done there, with that map. It's just not a sufficient tool to the task it's been set.

You implied that only if they didn´t want to conquer them they wouldn´t.

I can see how you could read it that way.

They dominated them sporadically and at times, so no they wouldn´t necessarily be puppets(tributaries yes but that´s a different relationship)

Sorry if I said puppets; I certainly did not mean to.

It´s not but it´s also quite odd that you expect the best case scenario(relatively at least) for a united China in a AHC for a divided one. I mean it´s like one created a thread about how Germany could win WW1 and everyone kept imagining scenarios where a lighting killed all the German officers.

It's not a best case scenario, though, is it? That's the thing. It's the default scenario when China unifies and before it declines.

The same general pattern recurs from the Former Han all the way to the early Ming: A newly unified China will usually be strong, and a strong China will reign in some form over the neighbors.

What about the Manchu?

The people who were subordinate to China when it was strong, but - like several other groups at many other times - took advantage in periods of weakness and division?

Don´t worry.

No worries. I don't.

Could a cooperation between Dahan and Dazhou creat the Tan and Green Chinas of the map? While for example the Han Shantong and his son would be Red China?

There are a dozen ways we could create the statelets on the map. The trick is maintenance, not founding.
 
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Which is fine so long as we to ignore the human element. In practice geographic determination is insufficient. The outcome needs to be geographically (or otherwise) over-determined to counteract the inevitable reactions when one of these people wins a battle, or another does something to alienate the common people - the 老百姓. Or what have you.
Pyrric battles or wars? Or wars without results? Attrition war? This is what I´m trying to produce.

Nothing succeeds like success, fools can sink any state, and the 1984 style balance of power proves a short-term solution when compared to the historical record.
I think our expectations and POV are fundamentally different, given the same scenario we expect 2 different things.

It's not a best case scenario, though, is it? That's the thing. It's the default scenario when China unifies and before it declines.

The same general pattern recurs from the Former Han all the way to the early Ming: A newly unified China will usually be strong, and a strong China will reign in some form over the neighbors.
Relatively yes, at least compared to what can go worse.

The people who were subordinate to China when it was strong, but - like several other groups at many other times - had advantage in periods of weakness and division?
I was countering the "last stateless(nomad?) people to beat China".

No worries. I don't.
lol

There are a dozen ways we could create the statelets on the map. The trick is maintenance, not founding..
But the more I go into the TL the more open room I have, I can decide the battle, the people and the luck.

I actually do appreciate what you've done there, with that map. It's just not a sufficient tool to the task it's been set.
I´ll try to come up with a quick timeline.
 
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The Manchu weren't stateless, and they weren't nomads either. They were sedentary farmers whose government drew heavily on the Chinese civil service model. When they conquered China, the vast majority of their troops were Han; 75% of the eight banners were Han from Liaodong, and of course all of the Green Standard were Ming defectors.
 
The Manchu weren't stateless, and they weren't nomads either. They were sedentary farmers whose government drew heavily on the Chinese civil service model. When they conquered China, the vast majority of their troops were Han; 75% of the eight banners were Han from Liaodong, and of course all of the Green Standard were Ming defectors.
Oh I see, makes sense that they are not if I think about it now.
 
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