Thanks. A generation? Not even 2?
Disunity could last two; many of the broad strokes could potential last two or more, especially outside Han regions. But yes, I'm saying that map wouldn't be constant for two generations. The odds that no state/warlord/movement/clique would seize anything from the neighbors in that time seems a vanishingly small prospect.
Tan China and Canton have the worst defensive terrain between them but the fact that Tan has to also defend the North and East it would not go full on Blue.
Wait, not only is Balkanization impossible but China WILL always and derministically conquer all of PRC territory and more? And only if they don´t want to they would not? That´s quite a big claim given Ming China never took all this territory.
Hrm? A lot to parse there. Balkanization is supremely unlikely (implausible) as a long-term outcome
given the conditions and timing discussed. Impossible, no.
China will always and deterministically conquer that stuff? Certainly not. Obviously not. Even
in the post you're replying to, I
specifically suggested a reunited China in this era could abstain from conquering the west, far north, and southeast of the modern PRC.
But whenever the Han core was unified, China dominated these regions and others until an eventual Chinese crisis equalized the odds again. Sometimes that meant administration, usually it meant protectorates. The Qing, Republic, and Communists all treated the periphery as national territory, so the easiest "Balkanization" would simply be to continue the older treatment of the far territories: they are peoples in the Chinese sphere, but not "part of China".
If you look at the Ming, they elicited some degree of obeisance from, or annexed, the regions I described. Now the recognition of Chinese supremacy was fleeting from the portions of Mongolia they couldn't physically reach, and obviously changed regarding the Manchurians' states, but that's where I'm coming from. Most successful dynasties that controlled a united China, did as much. So protectorates are hardly a controversial thing to expect.
The Yuan were the last hurrah of non-state peoples having an advantage over major neighboring states. Not only had technology moved on and steppe-adjacent peoples adapted, but Ming China in particular underwent a massive population boom that's next to impossible to avert unless the Europeans fail to engage with the Americas.
Sorry for the incomplete response; I need to focus on my imminent international flight. I'll try to get back to you more fully later.