The Germans used a lot of captured transport in NA, they never had enough trucks and fuel was always an issue particularly in Russia. If there are more trucks in Russia that means more gets burnt taking supplies up to the front.
They also had a tendency to pinch them off the Italians. It is very hard to retreat on foot from a mechanised army hence more became PoWs.
 
The Afrika Korps was a scratch force created out of elements not needed for more urgent matters. Three light Armoured divisions with obsolescent Panzers wouldn't have made any difference in the Soviet Union in 1941.
 
With no Ice Road starvation will see Leningrad fall within a few months.
Leningrad won’t surrender. They’ll just stop shooting the homotarians and murderous cannibals until the breech can no longer be defended and the rape begins. Imagine if Stalingrad fell. That. And if any of the Leningrad intelligentsia survive a novel will come out of it.

They will choose to make the Germans pay even without being ordered to.

and even for the east it will be incomprehensibly ugly.
 
What would the Luftwaffe commitment be to defence of eastern Europe and Italy if they lose NA in 1940/41?

They know that they are up against 'soft underbelly Churchill' who has not been bled by an arduous ping-pong desert campaign. Yes they would have avoided the loses in personnel and planes, but they would now be looking at defending a massively increased amount of airspace stretching from Malta to Create and landings on islands nearer to Polstei etc.

I can imagine this being an even larger theatre sink longer term than the front commitment was at any single point in the IOTL campaign.
 

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If Italy's contribution was more railway engineers and the extra materials went into double standard gauge track with decent foundations then the logistic situation would have improved substantially. The best rail route (east through Kiev and Kharkov, then north to Moscow) could have been worked hard enough to take the capital. However, Lightning War was never a logistically sound strategy with so little to forage and such poor infrastructure in place.

What does this mean in terms of the peerless Air Ministry? Oil and Transport still make good targets. The problem is getting on target for maximum effect.
 
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What does this mean in terms of the peerless Air Ministry? Oil and Transport still make good targets. The problem is getting on target for maximum effect.

Oil is good but the German economy was much less oil dependent than even the Soviets while the Heer was primarily horse and coal powered. But if Bomber Command can hit the rail and canal network of the Ruhr hard enough to stop the movement of coal that's Germany out of the war. It's their Achilles heel.
 
The Afrika Korps was a scratch force created out of elements not needed for more urgent matters. Three light Armoured divisions with obsolescent Panzers wouldn't have made any difference in the Soviet Union in 1941.
The AK had a standard Pz Div (15th) formed in Nov 40 and rated at complete prior to shipping to Africa. Then there was the 5th Light Division which turned into 21st Pz Div, a standard Pz Div, by June 1941, all with standard issue tanks. Whether or not those standard issue tanks are obsolescent is neither here nor there. Since in June 1941 the Germans had 26 Pz Divisions, having 1/13th of their strength somewhere in Africa is actually a sizeable dent in their capabilities.
However, as some here have indicated, what the Germans needed most was a good Logistic tail and when you are trying to supply the front line with horse drawn wagons, there has to be something not quite right.
 
I have been struggling to write a North African campaign (including the siege of Malta and the invasion of Greece) that fits the ethos on which the PAM timeline has been built. That is : Plausibility within the political and industrial constraints existing at the time. I have so far written three alternative story lines.

1, Very much as OTL, just that the RAF does a little better due to there being slightly better and more aircraft available in the middle east. The political and strategic shambles of OTL remains completely unchanged.

2. Due to there being better air cover and more of it Operation Compass is a little more successful, The Intervention of the Luftwaffe from Scilly and the Italian mainland is blunted by their being more Hurricanes and other aircraft available on Malta. With the early capture of Cyrenaica and the Italian Airfields reinforcements can be flown in from there (As OTL). Intervention by the RAF and the RN prevents the German Africa corps ever successfully forming in Libya

No army units are sent to Greece and the Desert Army advance to capture the whole of Libya by the end of April. Greece and Crete both fall, the RAF take losses in both areas.



3. As above but Crete is Garrisoned by British troops and the Airfield reinforce with more fighters. The Desert Army get west of Sirte and then fight a joining battle with the Africa Corps as it moves forward. The Campaign then see saws for the rest of 1941. Greece is lost but Crete holds. The desert Campaign is won in late 1941 due to there being no ‘Gasala Gallops’ as in OTL due to there being more divisions in the desert to face Rommel. This situation is helped by the RAF developments under the PAM.



I am not sure which scenario is the most likely and plausible but I personally favour version three as it seems consistent with the story line and more compatible with the state of the Army and Navy ITL.

However you might have different ideas and suggestions?

I hope to resume posting soon.
 
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I would suggest 2b :D
If Compass succeeds at the expense of Greece, its still quite possible Crete holds - indeed, a later, smaller intervention on Crete is a lot easier if your not trying to extract men from Greece.
However another issue is, does Germany actual invade Greece? Its unclear if they did this because the British were sending a force. If NA falls to the Allies (so no Afrika Corps), and the British show no signs of more than a few fighter squadrons in Greece, might the Germans not invade at all? Or maybe just copy Britain, send some LW squadrons (after all, much easier to redeploy to Russia if needed that the Army), giving some more air-on-air action for you to write?
 
Any chance of having a lost or harassed formation of German bombers jettison their bombload over a certain stone circle in Wiltshire....it would mean less arguing later on.
 
I'd go with 3, Hitler did not really want to intervene in Greece so if no British on the ground , Greece is just a distraction he does not need. Add in Africa being a lost cause and he is likely just to ensure Romania is safe and concentrate on Russia. Perversely this will not change much in the East as logistics are still the real limit. So I'd see the Soviets stopping the German advance around the same place but the Soviet advance West being slower than OTL as the Germans have a bit more equipment/men they could not effectively use when the supply lines were longer.
 
I think 3 but am assuming some troops still get sent to Greece - from both sides (including aircraft) - and Crete is prepared as a fall back base for RAF at least.

Which ends up being the front line (on the ground and later in the air) after Greece falls. Cue second bomber front aiming at Ploesti and sometimes at Western Desert
 
FWIW, (not much) my guess is a mix of 1 and 2.

Better performance in Operation Compass but insufficient to get to Tripoli due to logistics constraints. The drivers to send British troops to Greece and the DAK are still there. As are the general shambles in the ME Command.

But the air strength of Malta and Crete will be stronger and the latter could be held.

Obviously your choice.
 
Sir Antony Eden during his OTL tour prior to intervention in Greece was against committing ground units and according to the Official RAF history Churchill had given him the all clear to veto any such intervention. It was apparently Wavell who was the principal advocate of sending ground forces. Therefore having a slightly more successful Compass and the possibility of clearing the Italians out of Libya there is a driver for both option 2 and 3. I think either is possible and I will make my mind up soon, I am inclined towards option three as I think there is more story in it!
Thanks for all the comments I hope to have some story posts up over the weekend.
 
Sir Antony Eden during his OTL tour prior to intervention in Greece was against committing ground units and according to the Official RAF history Churchill had given him the all clear to veto any such intervention. It was apparently Wavell who was the principal advocate of sending ground forces. Therefore having a slightly more successful Compass and the possibility of clearing the Italians out of Libya there is a driver for both option 2 and 3. I think either is possible and I will make my mind up soon, I am inclined towards option three as I think there is more story in it!
Thanks for all the comments I hope to have some story posts up over the weekend.
Absolutely!
Choose the option which makes the best story!
After all, if it happens the same as OTL what's the point?
 
I have seen it suggested that the UK fighting for Greece was helpful in getting the Greek merchant fleet on side.
 
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