AHC/PC/WI:The Shogunate narrowly wins the Boshin War?

By narrowly win,I mean they were able to route Imperialist forces from the field and maintain titular Tokugawa rule over Japan,but repelled when they tried to invade Imperialist domains like Satsuma and Choshu.So basically,everything ends in a white peace.What would be the effects of this?
 
You waited less than an hour, chill.

Calling the Boshin War a proper war is a little bit misleading. In a lot of ways, it was sort of the post-shogunate cleanup, given that Yoshinobu had already resigned the position of shogun before the war began (though I do think it was necessary to clean out the malignant hold that the Tokugawas had over the Imperial government). However, I do think it's possible for the Tokugawas to hold off their defeat, at least temporarily. What's really important is that Yoshinobu doesn't lose his nerve at the Battle of Toba-Fushimi because of imperial support of Satsuma and Choshu, and presses the attack. If he had done this, I think he could have pulled off a (Pyrrhic) victory, due to the sheer numerical disparity, although his enemies had a better-trained and modernized army. However, this would have cost immense casualties and most likely led to sort of a truce/cold war between the Tokugawas and the Imperial government. I tend to believe that this would lead to a vast loss of political prestige and thus power for the Tokugawas, as they're directly going against imperial authority, and they will have lost many experienced warriors. In the end, by the point the Boshin War came around, Tokugawa power in Japan already had its days numbered. The only change this creates is that it stays that end for a few years at most.
 
Japanese society has seen a slow trend of increasing nationalism since the 17th century. Since the Edo period doesn't allow for centralised governments all focus was given to the Emperor as the unifying factor. Since the Ishin was about 'restoring power' to the Emperor nobody was going to be able to justify going against that.
 
You waited less than an hour, chill.

Calling the Boshin War a proper war is a little bit misleading. In a lot of ways, it was sort of the post-shogunate cleanup, given that Yoshinobu had already resigned the position of shogun before the war began (though I do think it was necessary to clean out the malignant hold that the Tokugawas had over the Imperial government). However, I do think it's possible for the Tokugawas to hold off their defeat, at least temporarily. What's really important is that Yoshinobu doesn't lose his nerve at the Battle of Toba-Fushimi because of imperial support of Satsuma and Choshu, and presses the attack. If he had done this, I think he could have pulled off a (Pyrrhic) victory, due to the sheer numerical disparity, although his enemies had a better-trained and modernized army. However, this would have cost immense casualties and most likely led to sort of a truce/cold war between the Tokugawas and the Imperial government. I tend to believe that this would lead to a vast loss of political prestige and thus power for the Tokugawas, as they're directly going against imperial authority, and they will have lost many experienced warriors. In the end, by the point the Boshin War came around, Tokugawa power in Japan already had its days numbered. The only change this creates is that it stays that end for a few years at most.
I waited more than half a day before I started bumping.

Does it really matter if the Shogunate lost a lot of 'experienced warriors'?I was under the impression that a lot of these 'experienced warriors' were poorly trained(as in their training's completely antiquated by 19th century standards),equipped(again by 19th century standards) and motivated.The ones that actually fought well and to the bitter end during the war were the modern troops trained by the French--whose size was scheduled to be expanded prior to the initiation of the war.

Japanese society has seen a slow trend of increasing nationalism since the 17th century. Since the Edo period doesn't allow for centralised governments all focus was given to the Emperor as the unifying factor. Since the Ishin was about 'restoring power' to the Emperor nobody was going to be able to justify going against that.
I was under the impression that the Tokugawas were becoming a bit more conciliatory and were trying to form new institutions with the emperor.How well will that work with the Imperialist forces clearly routed on the field and grabbed the emperor to Edo?
 
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I was under the impression that the Tokugawas were becoming a bit more conciliatory and were trying to form new institutions with the emperor.How well will that work with the Imperialist forces clearly routed on the field and grabbed the emperor to Edo?
I don't think they have a reason to exist once the Emperor himself was brought to power - the Shogun was originally sitting in as spokesperson for the Emperor. And now the Emperor is in direct command.

Although, I can imagine the Shogunate can be saved if foreign intervention comes in.
 
I don't think they have a reason to exist once the Emperor himself was brought to power - the Shogun was originally sitting in as spokesperson for the Emperor. And now the Emperor is in direct command.

Although, I can imagine the Shogunate can be saved if foreign intervention comes in.
A lot of so-called powers behind the throne didn't have a reason to exist either,but they still existed.Now,the problem here isn't so much as whether continued Tokugawa rule is better for Japan as how things might develop from this point onwards. Even with the Shogun basically surrendering to the Imperialists after the Battle of Toba Fushimi,support for the Tokugawa still seemed extremely strong,with Tokugawa loyalists still fighting despite their leader basically abandoning them.How much messier if the Shogunate(I know the Shogun has 'resigned' the Shogunate officially,but we do need a term to describe the Tokugawa power apparatus which still remained) narrowly won the war by defeating the Imperialists but not being able to crush them completely.Also,the Shogunal army would also be stronger given more time to develop it.
 
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