AHC/PC/WI: Greater Ukraine

Greater Ukraine was a concept of a Ukraine encompassing much more of the territory that contains mostly-Ukrainians at least. Areas like Kuban, Slovakia, southeastern Poland, southern Belarus, and southwestern Russia have been host to the concept.

So can such a concept become a reality? What needs to happen and what are the possible effects?

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Here are images to give you an idea.
 
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The Soviet Union or Imperial Russia imploding in a really spectacular way that (in the case of the USSR) is still not nuclear.

Barring that, I don't really see it.
 
Germany wins a war with Russia, and wins big. Austria-Hungary might be the only difficulty here, but even that can be dealt with. If Germany decides it has outlived its usefulness and goes for a controlled demolition, it has every reason to support Ukraine's claim in East Galicia. If Hungary gets too uppity, Transcarpathia might be awarded to Ukraine.

Or maybe there is a stalemate in the Russian Civil War. The Whites establish themselves in what they consider Little Russia, but Ukrainian nationalism eventually leads to a revolution, and what used to be called Russia starts calling itself Ukraine. But we again run into some problems in the west. Poland was ready to withdraw from some of its demands at Versailles, but it would definitely draw the line at ceding Lwów to anybody, and the whites will simply be too weak to do anything about it. Maybe Germany attacks Poland in 1919 as it was apparently planning to do, weakening Poland so greatly that it no longer has any strength to intervene in the east. This means that Poland will have to rely on the goodwill of the Entente powers among which there was strong support for what was regarded as legitimate Russian demands, even after Russia went red.
 

trurle

Banned
Or maybe there is a stalemate in the Russian Civil War. The Whites establish themselves in what they consider Little Russia, but Ukrainian nationalism eventually leads to a revolution, and what used to be called Russia starts calling itself Ukraine. But we again run into some problems in the west. Poland was ready to withdraw from some of its demands at Versailles, but it would definitely draw the line at ceding Lwów to anybody, and the whites will simply be too weak to do anything about it. Maybe Germany attacks Poland in 1919 as it was apparently planning to do, weakening Poland so greatly that it no longer has any strength to intervene in the east. This means that Poland will have to rely on the goodwill of the Entente powers among which there was strong support for what was regarded as legitimate Russian demands, even after Russia went red.

Stalemate in the Russian civil war of 1917-1920 will require a very early POD (point of divergence). At least 2 generations deep (before 1850). The main problem is what Ukrainians did not want to fight at all..nearly all fight was done by the Russian officers from elsewhere. You may search for the chronicles of the civil war and find a spectacular succession of Ukrainian run-away and surrender incidents - to both the Russians and Germans. Most impressive is the evacuation of Kiev 8 February, 1918. Ukrainians simply did not have enough of common identity to fight for. May be also some other factor contributing to such suicidal ambivalence?

Most plausible POD, to my opinion, is the Pugachev's Rebellion of 1773. If at least temporarily successful, it would result eventually in greater Ukrainian nationalism and in territorially greater Ukraine.
 

trurle

Banned
If Ukraine was not subject to ethnic cleansing could the USSR be kind enough to extend the borders of Ukraine to this level?

It actually happened in OTL. Transfer of Crimea from Russia to Ukraine in 1954. If Ukraine would be more red during Russian Civil War, it may also receive Moldova in 1940. It would be the upper limit of possible for Ukraine to acquire by doing nothing.
For more than 2 large-scale madnesses from Russia to happen ... the entire Russia must become insane. You need to introduce a brain-sucking, Moscow-endemic mosquito as POD.:rolleyes:
 
It actually happened in OTL. Transfer of Crimea from Russia to Ukraine in 1954. If Ukraine would be more red during Russian Civil War, it may also receive Moldova in 1940. It would be the upper limit of possible for Ukraine to acquire by doing nothing.
For more than 2 large-scale madnesses from Russia to happen ... the entire Russia must become insane. You need to introduce a brain-sucking, Moscow-endemic mosquito as POD.:rolleyes:

What about the other territories like southwestern Russia and that sort of stuff?
 
During consultations in 1922-28 when Ukrainian SSR border was set it could easily retain Taganrog area (it was set to Ukraine at first, but then decision was changed) and maybe some northern regions around Kursk and Belgorod.
Maybe if ukrainian side had been more persuasive or had more support in Moscow.

Everything else is unlikely without serious historical changes. Like different nationalist Ukraine during Civil war actively fighting Reds&Russians better with Poland and Don cossaks as allies and then absorbing cossaks into Ukraine (which is tricky as cossaks weren't too fond of ukrainians either, despite certain similarities. And subsequent successful war with Poland.
 

trurle

Banned
During consultations in 1922-28 when Ukrainian SSR border was set it could easily retain Taganrog area (it was set to Ukraine at first, but then decision was changed) and maybe some northern regions around Kursk and Belgorod.
Maybe if ukrainian side had been more persuasive or had more support in Moscow.

Everything else is unlikely without serious historical changes. Like different nationalist Ukraine during Civil war actively fighting Reds&Russians better with Poland and Don cossaks as allies and then absorbing cossaks into Ukraine (which is tricky as cossaks weren't too fond of ukrainians either, despite certain similarities. And subsequent successful war with Poland.

I agree on the possibility of Tagangog area and southern part of Belgorod area to pass to Ukraine in the aftermath of Russian Civil War. But Kursk? Why it could happen? Soviet suspected oil in area back in 1920 (although it turned out to be an iron ore). I cannot imagine giving such area to Ukraine unless the entire flow of civil war changes (like Denikin`s white Russia forces winning (which was outright impossible because of aforementioned problems with recruitment on Ukraine)).:confused:
 
I agree on the possibility of Tagangog area and southern part of Belgorod area to pass to Ukraine in the aftermath of Russian Civil War. But Kursk? Why it could happen? Soviet suspected oil in area back in 1920 (although it turned out to be an iron ore). I cannot imagine giving such area to Ukraine unless the entire flow of civil war changes (like Denikin`s white Russia forces winning (which was outright impossible because of aforementioned problems with recruitment on Ukraine)).:confused:

Well, Kursk itself was never on the table. Nevertheless Ukrainian SSR in 1924 demanded quite a lot of territory near it including Noviy Oskol, Belgorod, Sudzha, Rylsk and also Ostrogozhsk and Rossosh from Voronezh area. They also wanted some lands from Belorussia as well. There was very hot debates.

Eventually some demands were satisfied, but much less then was asked. So it is somewhat possible, if Moscow did not press the issue too much in its favor.
 

trurle

Banned
Well, Kursk itself was never on the table. Nevertheless Ukrainian SSR in 1924 demanded quite a lot of territory near it including Noviy Oskol, Belgorod, Sudzha, Rylsk and also Ostrogozhsk and Rossosh from Voronezh area. They also wanted some lands from Belorussia as well. There was very hot debates.

Eventually some demands were satisfied, but much less then was asked. So it is somewhat possible, if Moscow did not press the issue too much in its favor.

Ok, got the idea.
 
CP victory in WW1 = German-puppet Ukraine.

Karl I tries to reform AH in the 1920s-1930s. The Hungarians rebel and it collapses. Ukraine takes Galitzia and Carpatho-Ukraine.

Russia goes to war with Ukraine in the 1940s. It loses.
 
An old soc.history.what-if post of mine at https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/2VLeqeXlNpg/wDK1p1G4FRkJ

***
ObWI: Stalin gets *more* favorable boundaries with Poland in 1945. See
Khrushchev's speech to the Ukrainian Supreme Soviet in March 1944 (greeted,
needless to say, with "stormy applause"): "The Ukrainian people will seek
to include in the Ukrainian Soviet state such primoridal Ukrainian lands as
the Kholm [Chelm] region, Hrubeshiv [Hrubieszow], Zamostia [Zamosc],
Tomashiv [Tomaszow] [and] Iaroslav [Jaroslav]." S. M. Plokhy, *Yalta: The
Price of Peace*, p. 185.
http://books.google.com/books?id=0wOKfjnXdAUC&pg=PT185

Khrushchev had a personal connection here--his wife Nina was a Ukrainian
from the Chelm region--but it is hard to see him making claims like this
without Stalin's prior approval. The Soviet Ukrainian historian Petrovsky
(who was later to be accused of "bourgeois nationalism") quickly produced
an article in *Radianska Ukraina* "The Primoridal Ukrainian Lands" to
justify the claims--Danylo of Halych had died and been buried in Kholm,
Khmelnytsky had claimed the area, the 1897 Russian census showed a
Ukrainian majority, etc.
http://books.google.com/books?id=IzSEEqjp9vUC&pg=PA48

This was probably just a bargaining ploy, by which the USSR would
"generously" concede these areas to Poland in return for the Western Allies
(and of course Poland itself...) accepting the Curzon Line, including the
loss of Lwow/Lvov/Lviv. But suppose Stalin had decided to follow through
with the claim?
 
CP victory in WW1 = German-puppet Ukraine.

Karl I tries to reform AH in the 1920s-1930s. The Hungarians rebel and it collapses. Ukraine takes Galitzia and Carpatho-Ukraine.

Russia goes to war with Ukraine in the 1940s. It loses.

Ukraine might have been able to gain independence on its own even without a CP victory. Russia was already screwed at this point.
 
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