AHC/PC: Prussia satisfied w/ German territorial settlement of 1815 forever

Could Prussia get to the end of the 19th century without choosing to expand in Europe ?

  • Yes

    Votes: 5 13.9%
  • No

    Votes: 31 86.1%

  • Total voters
    36

raharris1973

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Is it plausible for Prussia with any PoD after 1816 for Prussia to remain satisfied with its teritoriaal dimensions as of the 1815 congress of Vienna and to avoid territorial expansion within Europe through the entire 19th century and into the 20 th century? Bonus points if this is not t the result of military defeat.
 
This is the eve of the age of nationalism. Even if Prussian leadership doesn't pursue aggressive expansion, the people will call for German unification.
 
This is the eve of the age of nationalism. Even if Prussian leadership doesn't pursue aggressive expansion, the people will call for German unification.
Basiccally if Prussia Doesn't lead or unite with a German state it risks losing most, if not all of its self
 
I will note that Prussia herself was extremely dissatisfied with the settlement she received, wanting to keep the post-partition borders, but Britain et al wanted a state with a strong border on the Rhine.

You would need to alter the balance of European power, weaken Russia and/or make France look less scary (maybe no Hundred Days plus a worse Napoleonic invasion?) Which would turn Prussia into an equivalent of Austria Hungary, only as a union of Prussia and Poland, and probably lead to.her remaining independent from Germany likely unification.
Post 1815, though, this is likely impossible.
 
Unification of Germany and Prussia getting no more territory is not mutually exclusive. They just have to be satisfied with integrated, self-governing, vassals/provinces rather than going om-nom-nom on the neighbours.
 
I will note that Prussia herself was extremely dissatisfied with the settlement she received, wanting to keep the post-partition borders, but Britain et al wanted a state with a strong border on the Rhine.

You would need to alter the balance of European power, weaken Russia and/or make France look less scary (maybe no Hundred Days plus a worse Napoleonic invasion?) Which would turn Prussia into an equivalent of Austria Hungary, only as a union of Prussia and Poland, and probably lead to.her remaining independent from Germany likely unification.
Post 1815, though, this is likely impossible.
Now there is a thought. OTL had Austria hungry separate from Germany, this Prusso-Poland I have see separate before, but never have I seen both Austro-Hungary, and Prussio-poland
 
I can't see her having much chance to expand without the war of 1866, which Crown Prince Frederick strongly opposed. So put him on the throne - - .
 
Prussia always had a strong conservative faction opposed to changing the status quo. The country was big enough to play an important role in Central Europe and had no real need to expand. The conquests of the 1860s were mainly opportunistic, born from the conflict with Austria-Hungary and fuelled by German nationalism. A different policy decision here could see Prussia opposing nationalism and going for a separation of German-speaking territories into spheres of influence (or remove the conflict altogether, though short of destroying A-H it's hard to see how). THe ultimate fate of Austria and Luxembourg shows that Berlin was quite happy to define bits as 'not really Germany' when it suited its ends.

Needless to say this is not a good idea. But it's not unknown for countries to go against the prevailing tide of history, and sometimes it works.
 
Based on my reading of the period and Prussian politics... Territorial integrity was a key priority for the majority of Prussia's elite, in particular connecting Westphalia to the traditional Prussian holdings. Of course some people, primarily juinkers east of the Elbe, didn't care but most Prussians knew that for Prussia to be the leading German state they'd need to make sure that they weren't depending on other states to get access to their western possessions.

Now how much territory Prussia needs, that can vary based on the individual players. In 1866 not everyone wanted to annex all of Hannover, instead merely annexing the portions of the kingdom that were south of the Duchy of Brunswick, which at the time was also lacking an heir, and arranging to inherit the Duchy of Brunswick, while allowing the Hannoverian throne to be passed to Ernest August, the Duke of Cumberland.

Annexing Hesse-Cassel was mere opportunism, since the state originally intended to be neutral but joined the Austrian side after Prussia requested them to violate their neutrality by allowing the passage of Prussian troops through its territory. So avoiding that should be easy. That'd limit the annexations to Nassau, Frankfurt, Schleswig-Holstein, and portions of Hesse-Darmstadt (and the bits of Hannover described above). And most of those could probably be avoided, too, however it's less likely than negating the annexation of all of Hannover.
 

raharris1973

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n 1866 not everyone wanted to annex all of Hannover, instead merely annexing the portions of the kingdom that were south of the Duchy of Brunswick, which at the time was also lacking an heir, and arranging to inherit the Duchy of Brunswick, while allowing the Hannoverian throne to be passed to Ernest August, the Duke of Cumberland.

Interesting- If robbed of some territory, but still very much continuing as a Kingdom, would the rulers of Hanover have been willing to be loyal subordinates within the North German Confederation or 2nd German Reich, instead of support the "Guelph Legion" in exile?
 
Interesting- If robbed of some territory, but still very much continuing as a Kingdom, would the rulers of Hanover have been willing to be loyal subordinates within the North German Confederation or 2nd German Reich, instead of support the "Guelph Legion" in exile?
Considering Saxony as a case study, they probably would. After all Prussia IOTL not only annexed Hannover but also confiscated large parts of its wealth (the Welfenfond), so with that averted... It's likely.
 
Based on my reading of the period and Prussian politics... Territorial integrity was a key priority for the majority of Prussia's elite, in particular connecting Westphalia to the traditional Prussian holdings. Of course some people, primarily juinkers east of the Elbe, didn't care but most Prussians knew that for Prussia to be the leading German state they'd need to make sure that they weren't depending on other states to get access to their western possessions.

Now how much territory Prussia needs, that can vary based on the individual players. In 1866 not everyone wanted to annex all of Hannover, instead merely annexing the portions of the kingdom that were south of the Duchy of Brunswick, which at the time was also lacking an heir, and arranging to inherit the Duchy of Brunswick, while allowing the Hannoverian throne to be passed to Ernest August, the Duke of Cumberland.

Annexing Hesse-Cassel was mere opportunism, since the state originally intended to be neutral but joined the Austrian side after Prussia requested them to violate their neutrality by allowing the passage of Prussian troops through its territory. So avoiding that should be easy. That'd limit the annexations to Nassau, Frankfurt, Schleswig-Holstein, and portions of Hesse-Darmstadt (and the bits of Hannover described above). And most of those could probably be avoided, too, however it's less likely than negating the annexation of all of Hannover.

Iirc, the problem was Bismarck's wish to conciliate Austria and Saxony by letting them off without loss of territory. This annoyed Wilhelm I, who saw them as his principal opponents and expected them to pay the normal price of defeat. The annexations of Hanover et al were his "consolation prize" for not getting his way on this point.

One interesting question is WI King Wilhelm is killed by a stray bullet or shell splinter at Koniggratz. The Crown Prince had been totally against the war from day one, and might have been willing to let the losers off without serious loss of territory. However, even he might have left the door open for future gains by requiring them to renounce their rights of succession to places like Brunswick and Luxemburg in favour of Hohenzollern princes (to be chosen by him) and agreeing that their existing states should pass to Hohenzollerns should the male lines of the current ruling families ever die out. No doubt there would be something in the fine print to prevent anyone "cheating" by legitimising a bastard or admitting the offspring of a morganatic marriage into the succession. This would give Prussia or its ruling family a chance to pick up windfalls in the course of time, without attracting too much attention in the present.
 
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. No doubt there woild be something in the fine print

Iirc, the problem was Bismarck's wish to conciliate Austria and Saxony by letting them off without loss of territory. This annoyed Wilhelm I, who saw them as his principal opponents and expected them to pay the normal price of defeat. The annexations of Hanover et al were his "consolation prize" for not getting his way on this point.

One interesting question is WI King Wilhelm is killed by a stray bullet or shell splinter at Koniggratz. The Crown Prince had been totally against the war from day one, and might have been willing to let the losers off without serious loss of territory. However, even he might have left the door open for future gains by requiring them to renounce their rights of succession to places like Brunswick and Luxemburg in favour of Hohenzollern princes (to be chosen by him) and agreeing that their existing states should pass to Hohenzollerns should the male lines of the current ruling families ever die out. No doubt there would be something in the fine print to prevent anyone "cheating" by legitimising a bastard or admitting the offspring of a morganatic marriage into the succession. This would give Prussia or its ruling family a chance to pick up windfalls in the course of time, without attracting too much attention in the present.
And since back then the Bundesrat, whose members were picked essentially by the state monarchs, that'd increase Prussia's influence, which would be enough for people like Bismarck. After all that is what they also did in Brunswick IOTL, putting Berlin-approved regents in power who consistently voted in favor of Prussia.
 
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