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What if instead of making peace with Poland-Lithuania and going to war against Sweden in 1650s, Tsar Alexis concludes an anti-Polish treaty with Sweden, seeking to secure territory he already occupied. Russia attempts to keep peace with Sweden through at least 1670 while trying to absorb its gains.

Who gets what in the treaty, and do the other powers stand for it? At the peak of the Deluge/Potop in 1655-1656 the Russians occupied Belarus, Ukraine as far as Lvov and interior Lithuania up to Vilna. The Swedes occupied Livonia, Courland, coastal Lithuania, Ducal Prussia and western Poland as far south as Cracow. The wiki maps show the Swedish and Russian occupation zones overlapping roughly at Lublin. The only unoccupied portion of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was the Carpathian southern half of what eventually became Austrian Galicia in 1774.

Could the Swedes and Russians establish durable control over their respective occupied areas, and perhaps even seized the remaining unoccupied PLC land down to the Carpathians, a total partition of the PLC.

Would the Ottomans and Habsburgs be able to thwart such a partition, or secure spoils to "compensate" themselves? They are the largest powers with an interest. And what of Brandenburg? With the Swedes occupying ducal Prussia, Brandenburg is a small, minor, but probably pissed off power trying to make alliances to help them recover Prussia.

In a full-partition, what might Brandenburg, Austria, Sweden, Russia, Russian vassals like the Hetmanate, and the Ottomans or Ottoman vassals like Transylvania gain.

Or, even with a Russo-Swedish treaty as a starting point, is it more likely that Poland-Lithuania will suffer partial amputations but not extinction?

How would maximum Russo-Swedish cooperation in the 1650s and 1660s position the two powers against each other if they fight in later decades?

Map of the "Deluge" attached.

765px-Rzeczpospolita_Potop.png
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