Well?

  • Yes

    Votes: 8 40.0%
  • No

    Votes: 12 60.0%

  • Total voters
    20
Is it possible to have in the entirety of the time from 1900 to 2016 no independent Polish state, AND have at least one of a) Austria-Hungary, b) the German Empire, and c) the Russian Empire suffer a dismemberment on the scale Austria-Hungary suffered at the bargaining table at Versailles after WWI?
 
With these conditions, avoiding a Polish state is nigh impossible.

You're wishing that a nation as tough and innate nationalistic as Lithuanians, yet also populous and unwilling to assimilate, would miss out on the chance to creating their own state during the time when both nationalism was at it's highest and oppressed nations had the greatest chance to create their nation-state.

I mean, the best option of these three would be a collapsing Germany, but even then there would likely be a Greater Polish nationalist movement, and even if Russia nips Posen in the bud in a year, which they could do, the challenge would already be failed.
 

Deleted member 1487

Is it possible to have in the entirety of the time from 1900 to 2016 no independent Polish state, AND have at least one of a) Austria-Hungary, b) the German Empire, and c) the Russian Empire suffer a dismemberment on the scale Austria-Hungary suffered at the bargaining table at Versailles after WWI?
Sure if you keep Poland was a marginally independent part of the Russian empire after a Entente WW1 victory in 1916. Germany is chopped up but still sort of intact, while A-H is totally dismembered. Poland stays within the Russian Empire and so long as the Empire holds it because an autonomous republic within the Empire.
 
Sure if you keep Poland was a marginally independent part of the Russian empire after a Entente WW1 victory in 1916. Germany is chopped up but still sort of intact, while A-H is totally dismembered. Poland stays within the Russian Empire and so long as the Empire holds it because an autonomous republic within the Empire.
I think the fulfillment of this question depends on what we call a Polish state.

Does it have to actually be Poland, or just a nation ruled by Polish peoples?

If the latter, then in this scenario a some sort of short-lived Galicia-Lodomeria carved out of Austrian Galicia would still qualify. Which could definitely happen in a collapsing A-H.
 
Is it possible to have in the entirety of the time from 1900 to 2016 no independent Polish state, AND have at least one of a) Austria-Hungary, b) the German Empire, and c) the Russian Empire suffer a dismemberment on the scale Austria-Hungary suffered at the bargaining table at Versailles after WWI?

Probably not the most-likely outcome, but I guess you could just have another partition. These are all assuming WWI are butterflied away:

A) Austria-Hungary collapses. Austria and Bohemia-Moravia are absorbed into the German Empire. Italy seizes Tyrol and Dalmatia. To compensate for German annexation of Osterreich und Bohmen-Mahren, Russia annexes (Polish) Galicia and Carpathian Ruthenia, whilst Hungary is made an independent state, controlling Hungary proper, Transylvania, Slovakia and Croatia-Slavonia. No Poland.

B) This one is quite difficult because Germany is the most stable of the three countries and any German collapse is likely to involve continent-wide forces that will also topple the Habsburgs and Romanov dynasties. Maybe there is some kind of Communist revolution in Germany. For some reason much of the army revolts and refused to kill their compatriots. Austrian and/or (more likely) Russian troops march to Berlin, dissolving a Paris Commune analog and reinstating monarchist rule in the country. Either the borders stay essentially the same, or Russia gets some more Polish territory. The real prize would be East Prussia, but that would be a hard sell to the international community to annex that. Still no Poland.

C) The Russian Empire collapses in circumstances different to those historically. Belarussian and Ukrainian states emerge which control territory of mixed ethnic composition, such as Lvov/Lviv. An independent Lithuania expands into these areas too. Austria-Hungary is decrepit and only forces some border adjustment. The most vigorous player in the region, the German Empire, whose foreign policy establishment has come to be dominated by the Lebensraum-lite types that were pretty common in late 19th/early 20th century Germany, expands into Germany, annexing most of it. They claim this is necessary to take action against "anarchists" that commit domestic terrorism inside German borders, who are stereotyped as being largely antipatriotic Poles.
 
Is it possible to have in the entirety of the time from 1900 to 2016 no independent Polish state, AND have at least one of a) Austria-Hungary, b) the German Empire, and c) the Russian Empire suffer a dismemberment on the scale Austria-Hungary suffered at the bargaining table at Versailles after WWI?

As long as, at any given time, either Germany or Russia are very strong, they can prevent a de jure independent Poland from achieving actual independence. This would be hard, but not impossible.
 

B-29_Bomber

Banned
It has a Pre-1900 PoD, but the Union Forever TL did this pretty well.

WWI involved a North Germany, Britain, Russia, Italy, and USA on one side and France, Austria-Hungary, and Ottoman Empire on the other.
 
A fully independent Poland may be prevented in certain circumstances, but a Polish puppet state (which has technical "independence") may eventually be required by either Germany or Russia. Unless you take the route of Hitler and seek to eliminate the Polish people (because Hitler hated Slavs), you would have a very difficult time suppressing nationalist efforts for long. A certain extent of autonomy would the minimum recommended for either Germany or Russia to control the region without making a Polish state or outright making Poland independent. It would honestly save both empires a ton of stress to give some autonomy rather than having to constantly fight Polish nationalists. So no, the Polish region can not be stable without, at least, some autonomy given by either Germany or Russia.
 
Top