With no PoDs prior to his last year - or at the very least, events of late 1799 (like the Second Battle of Zürich, Russia withdrawing from the Second Coalition, and the Brumaire Coup in France) happen as OTL - how can the assassination / coup that killed Paul I in March 1801 be averted?
And before anyone says it, I’m not averse to having him killed at a later date - I’m mainly interested in giving this particular Tsar just a few more years, certainly no more than a decade. Enough to make his government a player in the crucial years following Luneville, to let one or more of his schemes play out (eg invasion of India), and to keep Alexander from taking the throne at such a historically young age.
If this is doable, what are the effects, in Russia, Europe, and the world at large?