AHC: Paraguay wins the War of the Triple Alliance

I think the best outcome for a Paraguayan offensive is for the planets to align so the Argentine civil wars flare up as they engage the Brazilian armies. And they secure a peace with Brazil by the time Argentina gets its act together and counterattacks. Even then, Paraguay would need to get ready for round two.

Like I said before, paraguay don't have enought population to defeat brazil, even with Argentina in their side

The logic os the war usually goes as: paraguay had more numbers, so they could win

Well, first of all, the paraguyan army was at full mobilization when the war started, almost every able men in the country was at the army, so they simple couldn't replace their losses, they also didn't had enought population left to keep their economy running while at war, there is a joke about the war that is:

A paraguayan officer receives a aidee, who says:
"Sir, we had terrible losses in the last months"
"Who did that? The brazilians?"
"No"
"The argentinians?"
"No"
"don't you say that the uruguayans did that"
"Not, it was the famine and the cold"

The army equipment was also of inferior quality, and their training was also poor, so much that in the battle of Yatay the paraguayans had 1/3 of their forces destroyed, while causing negligible damage on the alliance forces, the same thing repeats in any other battle, as uruguaiana, or the most classic example, Tuyutí.

Another thing is that a demographic and economical desaster was coming to paraguay because of this mobilization, when a citizen is conscripted in the military he's not working, neither having children, or studying, so this lead to a long term decline on their overral economic and populational growth, and if for some ASB reason the paraguayans had won the war, they would have to either demobilize the army, to be counterattacked and suffer the same destiny as OTL, or continue mobilized, dry their economy and collapse, and then be attacked
 
You really hit my point about how Paraguay has never recovered from that particular war. Especially the part about how soldiers, even teenage boys, were not home (never made it home), marrying, working, producing through their labors, or even having children.
 
You really hit my point about how Paraguay has never recovered from that particular war. Especially the part about how soldiers, even teenage boys, were not home (never made it home), marrying, working, producing through their labors, or even having children.

Yep, and Solano pushed that to the worse consequences seen at the time, not even the Taiping rebellion caused as much internal damage as the paraguayan war, What Solano did to Paraguay was like if the USA entered in a war to conquer eurasia and had over 250 million people killed, can you imagine how much decades, or centuries, it would take for the USA to recover to it's pre war population? Germany after world war II had lost a smaller % of it's people than Paraguay
 
Like I said before, paraguay don't have enought population to defeat brazil, even with Argentina in their side
And neither did Argentina in 1825 and yet ended the Cisplatine War not winning, but also not loosing. Paraguay had to either:

Hunker down, using the huge defensive advantages armies were beginning to enjoy at the time and break Brazil's will to fight one machine gunned teenager at the time
Invade southern Brazil and threaten a slave rebellion by freeing the slaves in the occupied areas (this risks an Argentine attack on their western flank, though)
Sit down in Matto Grosso and yell "nah, nah, nah, can't touch me"
 
And neither did Argentina in 1825 and yet ended the Cisplatine War not winning, but also not loosing.

Actually, they did lose at the end, as uruguay wasn't annexed into Argentina, so much that the first uruguayan president had to bow to Emperor Pedro I of Brazil, and so Uruguay became a effective buffer state preventing Brazil to fight argetina again

Also, the population of Argentina in 1825 was of around 766 thousand people, against something around five million brazilians, Brazil didn't had a census at the time, but we can deduce based on the brazilian population in 1851 being of around 7 million people

Paraguay in the other side is had a population of around 500 thousand people in 1865, against nine million brazilians, and they were on the offensive taking massive attrition at the same time, comparing the argentinian-brazilian war of 1825 with the paraguayan war is a exageration
 
And neither did Argentina in 1825 and yet ended the Cisplatine War not winning, but also not loosing. Paraguay had to either:

Hunker down, using the huge defensive advantages armies were beginning to enjoy at the time and break Brazil's will to fight one machine gunned teenager at the time
Invade southern Brazil and threaten a slave rebellion by freeing the slaves in the occupied areas (this risks an Argentine attack on their western flank, though)
Sit down in Matto Grosso and yell "nah, nah, nah, can't touch me"

Except they did it on Mato Grosso but failed because when the brazilian army mobilized the paraguayans were completely out of their weight class. There's also the fact that the brazilian elites were particularly pissed about the attack, they weren't going to negotiate an end of the war before the paraguayan troops were evicted from brazilian soil. The meager paraguayan success on the beginning of the war was due the slow mobilization of the brazilian army. When the paraguayans abandoned Mato Grosso, the war actually became a secondary issue on brazilian politics and daily life.
 
Except they did it on Mato Grosso but failed because when the brazilian army mobilized the paraguayans were completely out of their weight class. There's also the fact that the brazilian elites were particularly pissed about the attack, they weren't going to negotiate an end of the war before the paraguayan troops were evicted from brazilian soil. The meager paraguayan success on the beginning of the war was due the slow mobilization of the brazilian army. When the paraguayans abandoned Mato Grosso, the war actually became a secondary issue on brazilian politics and daily life.
Again, due to the more advance economic and otherwise industrial capacities of the three Allies combined, Paraguay was never going to be able to win a long war. Which was proven.
 
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