AHC: Paraguay wins the War of the Triple Alliance

Is there a way plucky Paraguay could have won the War of the Triple Alliance against Argentina, Uruguay, and Brazil? How about Paraguay not declaring war on Argentina and facing only Uruguay and Brazil?

What would such a victory look like?

Paraguay was moderately industrialized for 1860s South America, at the time it had the longest functioning railway in South America and had free, universal and compulsory education, low levels of foreign debt, and incipient iron furnaces, textile, arms, gunpowder and shipbuilding industries, having chosen a protectionist and state-led method to develop its economy rather than the laissez faire attitude prevalent on most of Latin America at the time. Though arguably the nation's internal market was small to sustain industrialization and its mercantile economic model was exhausted by the time the war rolled in, one could only wonder what would have happened if the war had taken a different turn. After all they did lose 70% of its male population according to the highest estimates.

But what if they had won? Or at least achieved a white peace?
How does the world change?

It's not every day that a regional power chooses collective national suicide.
 
regional power is a bit of an overstatement. they had a good sized military for the region, but had no real influence beyond their borders. the war was their attempt at regional influence and it ended in disaster.

Could they have won? anything is possible. First thing is that they should not have taken on Brazil first. they have limited means to get at Brazil without antagonizing Argentina. So Argentina has to be taken care of first, then they can puff out the chest and dare Brazil to oppose them. Taking on Both B and A at the same time was ill advised. Even if the navy had managed to win the first battle and control the river, Brazil/Argentina can still blockade the river as the Paraguayan navy was river based, while Brazil can control the mouth. So you're left with P's army having to carry the day.

But, with a victory, P could possibly annex entre rios/mesopotamia region. at most that and rio do sul. So, maybe double the size of the country. they don't really gain much by way of mineral resources. The land is fertile, but they need people to populate it. At that point, they become a regional power able to possibly dominate Uruguay and Argentina. they have a long way to go to dominate Brazil. As long as they don't interfere with Britain's economic encroachment in Argentina, they might be able to achieve a new balance of power.

World wide effects? pretty much nothing. At the time, that neck of the woods was a backwater.
 
Is there a way plucky Paraguay could have won the War of the Triple Alliance against Argentina, Uruguay, and Brazil? How about Paraguay not declaring war on Argentina and facing only Uruguay and Brazil?

What would such a victory look like?
Well, they couldn't invade Brazil without invading Argentina, so that scenario has Paraguay sitting in the Matto Grosso and repelling the Brazilian Navy until the Brazilians concede. Paraguay gets the Matto Grosso, Brazil gets political upheaval and Argentina avoids a bunch of rebellions.

Beating both Argentina and Brazil requires the Argentine civil wars to reignite. Possible, and the war would devastate the provinces of Corrientes and maybe Entre Rios as the Brazilian and Paraguayan armies fight over Argentine territory. I'm not sure Paraguay can hold into Corrientes and Entre Rios. Their occupation of Corrientes was harsh and Urquiza would fight if they try to get into Entre Rios. Argentina would be weakened, for a time. But we may end up seeing some sort of replay of the war against Brazil: a border country invades an Argentine province, gets bogged down, eventually Buenos Aires decides to go to war against the border country.
Of course, it gets easier for Paraguay if they deal with Brazil alone while Argentina is facing an open civil war and Argentina doesn't get its act together until Paraguay and Brazil settle for some sort of peace treaty.

I'd also like (the impossible task) of separating myth from reality about the Paraguayan situation before the war. As you say, its domestic market can't sustain that kind of heavy industries and it wouldn't be exporting anywhere in the 1870s
 
civil war igniting is what Lopez was hoping for. he invited Urquiza to join him, and U wisely said no, and then emerged in a position to be top man in argentina. the situation wasn't ripe for a reignition of civil wars, so Lopez chose a bad time to take on everyone. Should have waiting until a civil war was already underway. the war wasn't going to cause splinters. Everyone joined together collecting Brazilian gold.
 
If Paraguay had won the war, how would they have sustained any ability to enforce their rewards from a victory? As it is, they lost a horrible amount of their male population due to the war in defeat. To beat Brazil and Argentina, and Uruguay, they would still have had to unleash most of their male population to defeat all three nations and incurred most likely the same amount of losses in lives. A victory would have been pyrrhic in nature and they would not have been able to rejoice in their victory for long. Brazil and Argentina, compared to Paraguay had the resources to rebuild and resume war when they felt able to do so. Paraguay has never recovered from that war, win or lose.
 
You'd need to find a way to affect the mobilization of the brazilian army, which was quite chaotic and disorganized. Once the brazilian army mobilized Paraguay could not compete in the battlefield.
 
Brazil is so big that short of invading Brazil and destroying their ability to produce war materials, I see no way how they could effectively be able to stop that ability to mobilize in so many different areas of the Empire. In addition, the Imperial Navy at what ever size, was more than capable with the help of Argentine and Uruguayan forces, naval or land forces, to bottle up the Rio De Plata thus denying the Paraguayans any sources that could be available for their needs to fight a long term war by blockading their access to outside international trade that they could use to help their own war efforts.

Their only hand was to go on the offensive, but eventually, as Brazil and their allies mobilize, Paraguay would not be able to sustain any momentum that they may have had initially in the war.
 
And in the extremely unlikely case they win how would they truly benefit from that victory? Paraguay can't really do lasting damage against either on it's own though it might possibly reignite the civil wars in Argentina and their war goals would have really pissed off both, and likely Uruguay too. Thus they would prepare for the second round and I don't think there is really anything Paraguay could actually accomplish to win that one.
 
Paraguay was moderately industrialized for 1860s South America, at the time it had the longest functioning railway in South America and had free, universal and compulsory education, low levels of foreign debt, and incipient iron furnaces, textile, arms, gunpowder and shipbuilding industries, having chosen a protectionist and state-led method to develop its economy rather than the laissez faire attitude prevalent on most of Latin America at the time. Though arguably the nation's internal market was small to sustain industrialization and its mercantile economic model was exhausted by the time the war rolled in, one could only wonder what would have happened if the war had taken a different turn. After all they did lose 70% of its male population according to the highest estimates.

No, they were not, this come from a political movement in the late 70s called "revisionist school", paraguay at the 1860s was something like north korea today, a heavily militarized poor state, with most of the property being from the Solano family, the best way to wank paraguay is to have Lopez to be overthrowned and the new government to focus on building paraguay

about if they could have won the Triple alliance war, it was utterly impossible, ASB, they could have won a war against Argentina or Uruguay, alone and with a lot of luck, but facing Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil at the same time was impossible, the population of Brazil was more than ten times higher than the paraguayan one, we could simple flood the camp with better trained and better equiped soldiers, and the brazilian government also could receive help from the outside if somehow Lopez became a south american Napoleon, while the paraguayans couldn't as they lost the battle of Riachuelo
 
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I think the fact that Paraguay was the aggressor, and the fact they were so isolated, were more than enough reasons to understand why they had very little if any support or sympathy from the International Community. It does seem to boggle the mind how the people of Paraguay could follow Solano Lopez even in the face of a hopeless cause.
 
I think the fact that Paraguay was the aggressor, and the fact they were so isolated, were more than enough reasons to understand why they had very little if any support or sympathy from the International Community. It does seem to boggle the mind how the people of Paraguay could follow Solano Lopez even in the face of a hopeless cause.

In The history channel documentary "A guerra do paraguay, a nossa grande guerra" they use this phrase to descibre Solano and the war:

"A patriot is someone who wants to die for his country, but the question is: Do his country want to die with him?"

Paraguay was under a corrupt nepotistic dynastic dictatorship, with his family running most of the country and him inheriting the dictatorship from his Father, so when the war started he already had enought time to clear paraguay from "traitors"
 
To Solano Lopez, he may have cleared the country of "traitors" those who opposed his tyrannical rule. But like in Nazi Germany, perhaps the "traitors" Hitler cleared from Germany in the 1930's were in the real true sense of the word, the "Real Patriots."
 
To Solano Lopez, he may have cleared the country of "traitors" those who opposed his tyrannical rule. But like in Nazi Germany, perhaps the "traitors" Hitler cleared from Germany in the 1930's were in the real true sense of the word, the "Real Patriots."

Yes, exact same situation, I always try to avoid using "reductio ad Hitleruns", but the personality in the 19th century that come the closest to Hitler is Solano Lopez, so much that he also conscripted children and woman to use as cannon fodder in the war, but in one point Solano is even worse, as the brazilians closed in his capital he looted everything he could and tried to escape to bolivia, just to be killed while trying to escape, Hitler was a monster, but at least he died standing in the ruins caused by himself instead of trying to run away
 
Yes, exact same situation, I always try to avoid using "reductio ad Hitleruns", but the personality in the 19th century that come the closest to Hitler is Solano Lopez, so much that he also conscripted children and woman to use as cannon fodder in the war, but in one point Solano is even worse, as the brazilians closed in his capital he looted everything he could and tried to escape to bolivia, just to be killed while trying to escape, Hitler was a monster, but at least he died standing in the ruins caused by himself instead of trying to run away

I'm pretty sure suicide can be construed as 'running away'.
 
Actually, he and his cronies, like Goering did stash billions of dollars worth of stolen art from other countries and Jewish families. And suicide on Hitler's terms was not noble. It was cowardly. He wanted to escape what he rightfully had coming to him, an executioners noose. Solano Lopez some say went down fighting, but he and the Dictator's who bring on human suffering for their own gain were in no way noble. As this was regarding the War of the Triple Alliance with Paraguay, as I stated before, Paraguay has never recovered from that war thanks to Solano Lopez.
 
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about if they could have won the Triple alliance war, it was utterly impossible, ASB, they could have won a war against Argentina or Uruguay, alone and with a lot of luck, but facing Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil at the same time was impossible, the population of Brazil was more than ten times higher than the paraguayan one, we could simple flood the camp with better trained and better equiped soldiers, and the brazilian government also could receive help from the outside if somehow Lopez became a south american Napoleon, while the paraguayans couldn't as they lost the battle of Riachuelo
I think the best outcome for a Paraguayan offensive is for the planets to align so the Argentine civil wars flare up as they engage the Brazilian armies. And they secure a peace with Brazil by the time Argentina gets its act together and counterattacks. Even then, Paraguay would need to get ready for round two.

But the catch is that the Brazilian invasion of Uruguay happened because Argentina had been unified and both the Brazilian and Argentine governments supported the same side in Uruguay. So, to have a POD in which Argentina is fighting itself by the time Paraguay declares war on Brazil and invades Argentina... you butterfly away the Paraguayan casus belli on Brazil.

Maybe if Solano Lopez creates a casus belli against Brazil by the time Buenos Aires was pretty much acting like a separate country from the Argentine Confederation, between the battles of Caseros and Pavon? But Mitre would see a Paraguayan invasion of the Argentine Confederacy as the excuse he needs to reunite the country
 
Lopez also executed his own brother when he advised the ditactor that he should seek terms with Brazil instead of keeping to wage a futile war.
 
You know in times of crises, like Chaing Kai Shek and Mao Tse Tung, coming to an agreement to both fight Japan in World War II, the idea that the Civil Wars in Argentina, if timed better would help Solano Lopez, they might have also backfired. Like in China, is it possible that temporarily, the Argentines might put aside internal differences for the sake of National patriotism to combat Solano Lopez, be it together or separate?
 
I don't see Paraguay winning anything more than a favourable exchange of minor territories. A lot really depends on how much they can take before Argentinians reach the Front. However opening a front with Uruguay is not a great start.

If you really wanted to change this, make General Venancio coup fail. Argentina or Brazil will most likely intervene soon after and it will be a defensive war. It will be one or the other but not both. Brazil and Argentina did not enjoy 'healthy' relations until after the war. I'm not sure how much a swapping Uruguay will do, but its bound to help with the odds.
 
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