AHC: Paraguay wins the Paraguayan War

[Lenwe]

First; That happened because Argentina was fighting itself, with the countryside wanting to curbe the power of the capital and the capital wanting to unite the whole country. Lopez tried to capitalize on that OTL, and what happened is exactly what would happen on this timeline. The argentinians would unite themselves to fight the invader. It is very common for enemies to unite against a invader on such cases, and this is the perfect situation, in OTL Solano expected to ally with some local lords on northern Argentina and use them against the federal government, but the opposite happened. On this scenario the same thing would happen, the argentinians would rally behind Buenos aires and push back the Paraguayans..

The problems in this part is that the Argentinean Don´t support the central government, in fact this moment was used to launch another revolt, the so called Revolucion de los colorados (link in Spanish) in the province of Mendoza. And the Argentinean Troops don´t fight even if his province was in danger of occupations as was the Case in Desbande de Basualdo where 8.000 Argentinean soldiers levied in the Entre rios province, the one directly south the area occupied by Paraguay, refused to be send to fight against Paraguay, so much that a decimation was not enough, and the army ended being disbanded .
And after that they try again, and again the troops dessert in this case 6.000 horsemen in the
Desbande de Toledo

After that in 1867 the Argentinean centralist Government could stop all the rebellion(s) and send troops again against Paraguay, but in 1868 they have another Revolt This time in the Santa Fe Province and Another in the Corrientes Province, that ironically enough was the one recently liberate of the Paraguayan occupation.

The Argentinian troops would have a higher morale, agian, they are fighting a invader from the closest that America came from a totalitarian state on the 19th century and this state wants to take huge chunks of the Argentinian land. Argentina has a better economy and a larger population, so they will eventually win a war of attrition. There another point comes, however, Solano can use his numbers and win some decisive victories (taking large casualties in the process) and force the argentinians to surrender. This IS possible and this could have happened, but the Paraguayan army was already mobilized to it's max and they needed to demobilize, while the Argentinian army wasn't, and so as soon the paraguayans demobilize, the Argentinians will come to crush them and recover the lost land..

As i could demonstrate in my anterior point, the Argentinians don´t have the slightest interest in fight a war against Paraguay if they are send by the Centralist Government of Buenos Aires, as most of the troops levied to fight against Paraguay were occupied to stop the revolts inside the national Territory,or in some cases, rebelled themselves against being send to fight against Paraguay, by 1867 most of the troops Argentina field in the Paraguayan front where A) prisoners, B) captured Paraguayans Soldier) or C) mercenaries. and where barely more than 3.000 soldiers,
There is a reason the Lions share of the fight was done by Brazilian Troops

Brazil cannot support paraguay because Paraguay was friendly for the anti brazilian faction on the Uruguayan civil war.

Realpolitik, just because this guys don´t support me, does not mean i can´t help then when they are fighting my enemies, like the USA backed Taliban in Afghanistan fight against the USSR., the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, French Backed Protestant Troops during the 30 years war, Examples Abound, you because just must not don´t mean you cannot

 

[Gukpard]

The problems in this part is that the Argentinean Don´t support the central government, in fact this moment was used to launch another revolt, the so called Revolucion de los colorados (link in Spanish) in the province of Mendoza. And the Argentinean Troops don´t fight even if his province was in danger of occupations as was the Case in Desbande de Basualdo where 8.000 Argentinean soldiers levied in the Entre rios province, the one directly south the area occupied by Paraguay, refused to be send to fight against Paraguay, so much that a decimation was not enough, and the army ended being disbanded .
And after that they try again, and again the troops dessert in this case 6.000 horsemen in the
Desbande de Toledo

After that in 1867 the Argentinean centralist Government could stop all the rebellion(s) and send troops again against Paraguay, but in 1868 they have another Revolt This time in the Santa Fe Province and Another in the Corrientes Province, that ironically enough was the one recently liberate of the Paraguayan occupation.

Well, I have no counter argument against that, it is beyong me how someone would backstab his country in the back just after being liberated from occupation...

Realpolitik, just because this guys don´t support me, does not mean i can´t help then when they are fighting my enemies, like the USA backed Taliban in Afghanistan fight against the USSR., the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, French Backed Protestant Troops during the 30 years war, Examples Abound, you because just must not don´t mean you cannot

Here the thing: The brazilian empire was not really into realpolitik, the emperor fired many prime ministers who pushed him to reannex Paraguay even when it was easy to do it, he always tried to go for the most peacefull solution for the conflict.

 

[Lenwe]

Well, I have no counter argument against that, it is beyong me how someone would backstab his country in the back just after being liberated from occupation...

I don´t know either and our cliche response of "Es Argentina que esperabas" /"É a Argentina que você esperava" don´t cut in this situation

Here the thing: The brazilian empire was not really into realpolitik, the emperor fired many prime ministers who pushed him to reannex Paraguay even when it was easy to do it, he always tried to go for the most peacefull solution for the conflict.

So What about this scenario, the War happens in two part as I Say before.

First stage a Paraguay-Argentina, and Paraguay wins,

Then a Recently victorious Paraguay declare the war Against Brasil, the war goes more or less like our Timeline in the Brazilian front, there was not a Argentinean front, until the conference of Yatayty Cora(or an equivalent one), where Benigno Lopez was present and decide to make a putsch a against his brother, this putsch succeed and Lopez was surrender as prisoner and War criminal to the Brazilian government on the condition Brazil recognize the Paraguayan Acquisition of Misiones and Corrientes that have an important Guarani population in the epoch, and the pay of a war compensation by the Paraguayan Government to the Brasil Empire

This look plausible to you?

 

[Gukpard]

Then a Recently victorious Paraguay declare the war Against Brasil, the war goes more or less like our Timeline in the Brazilian front, there was not a Argentinean front, until the conference of Yatayty Cora(or an equivalent one), where Benigno Lopez was present and decide to make a putsch a against his brother, this putsch succeed and Lopez was surrender as prisoner and War criminal to the Brazilian government on the condition Brazil recognize the Paraguayan Acquisition of Misiones and Corrientes that have an important Guarani population in the epoch, and the pay of a war compensation by the Paraguayan Government to the Brasil Empire

This look plausible to you?

If Paraguay attacks Brazil, what would prevent Argentina from attacking southern paraguay? A small force of 5 thousand loyal soldiers would be enought to crush their defences on the south...

 

[Lenwe]

If Paraguay attacks Brazil, what would prevent Argentina from attacking southern paraguay? A small force of 5 thousand loyal soldiers would be enought to crush their defences on the south...

I will use a cheap answer and say that after the defeat against Paraguay Argentina fall in another civil war, i don´t even need to invent one, your´s pick

Guerra entre la Confederación Argentina y el Estado de Buenos Aires (1852-1862)
Revolución de los Colorados(1866-1868)
Rebelión Jordanista(1870-1876)
Revolucion de 1874
Revolucion de 1880

 

[Gukpard]

I will use a cheap answer and say that after the defeat against Paraguay Argentina fall in another civil war, i don´t even need to invent one, your´s pick

Guerra entre la Confederación Argentina y el Estado de Buenos Aires (1852-1862)
Revolución de los Colorados(1866-1868)
Rebelión Jordanista(1870-1876)
Revolucion de 1874
Revolucion de 1880

Well, of, but there is still one point; as soon Solano attacks Brazil, the war will not end without him being ousted from power. What if he dies for some reason after defeating Argentina, and then the europe of america fall into civil war and Solano Brother tries to build up relations with brazil? This could allow Paraguay to keep Corrientes.

 

[Lenwe]

Well your´s option works too, but I was trying to maintain as close as possible to OTL War of the Triple Alliance

 

[MosesNotProphet]

Then a Recently victorious Paraguay declare the war Against Brasil, the war goes more or less like our Timeline in the Brazilian front, there was not a Argentinean front, until the conference of Yatayty Cora(or an equivalent one), where Benigno Lopez was present and decide to make a putsch a against his brother, this putsch succeed and Lopez was surrender as prisoner and War criminal to the Brazilian government on the condition Brazil recognize the Paraguayan Acquisition of Misiones and Corrientes that have an important Guarani population in the epoch, and the pay of a war compensation by the Paraguayan Government to the Brasil Empire

This look plausible to you?

Just a side-note, how do you suggest Benigno’s putsch to actually suceed.?

Also, i find unlikely that if conflict does come between Brazil and Paraguay, Brazil wouldn’t demand a solution to the border conflict in favour of Brazil.

Aside from that it would be th closest thing to victory that Paraguay could get, although i do find it unlikely that Paraguay would attempt another war after Argentina, especially as it already seemed to be scraping the barrel before any war came about.

 

[Lenwe]

Just a side-note, how do you suggest Benigno’s putsch to actually suceed.?

Also, i find unlikely that if conflict does come between Brazil and Paraguay, Brazil wouldn’t demand a solution to the border conflict in favour of Brazil.

Aside from that it would be th closest thing to victory that Paraguay could get, although i do find it unlikely that Paraguay would attempt another war after Argentina, especially as it already seemed to be scraping the barrel before any war came about.

At you third question Francisco Solano López, Paraguayan dictator of the epoch, was a asshole megalomaniac and coward, he could declare the war to Brasil to demonstrate that his country was a potency, that is what he just do in OTL.

As your secondt question, well Francisco Solano lopez is a asshole, megalomaniac coward that throw his country against the biggest potency in south america and when the negotiations come, and Brazil accept a Economic compensation and his renounce of the presidency and the public life of Paraguay, after a pretty brutal defeat mind you, as his only concession of victory, He say no and throw his country to another 3 years of war and the kill and of 80% oof his male population.

So yes Brasil would accept a solution that don´t involve border changes, because no one was really sure about where the border was.


As you firs question. I not sure, i don´t know enough about Benigno

 

[unprincipled peter]

Blitzkrieg in South America of the 19th century lol I think that gets the award for most ridiculous thing I have read on AH this year.

For Paraguay to even get to anything Brazil actually cares about beyond a vague 'it is our territory I guess' with their army is nearing a thousand kilometres(distance between Paris and Berlin is a little under nine hundred for the sake of comparison), for them to get to things that truly matter it is even more. The distance, the technology, the preparation, the shitty terrain and infrastructure and such just don't allow for the concept of blitzkrieg to work, it would be like Prussia pre-unification going through France to Spain and somehow holding them both, hell on further thinking that would be easier in fact.

I also used the term blitzkrieg. It's a relative term, and completely appropriate. Blitzkrieg has to take into account the speed at which an army moved at the time. In that era, they don't move all that fast. With a scenario of a competent paraguayan military (something sorely lacking OTL), they could have easily marched through Corrientes/Entre Rios and taken control of Uruguay. OTL they were stopped cold before they got to Uruguay. They lost almost immediately. IF they win immediately and take Uruguay, Brazil is many months away from being able to get troops to the region. that constitutes Blitzkrieg. OTL Paraguay dithered too much and then lost the first real battles. Here, the presumption is that they win within a couple months of starting the conflict, including control of the rivers. They now have a window in which to achieve peace with Argentina. They now have a one front war with Brazil. The assumption is a kick ass Paraguayan military. It's going to take Brazil years to catch up to them. It took them years to get up to anything resembling competent with every single thing in their favor OTL. Here, everything has gone wrong for them. They'll ship hoards of ill trained soldiers south and they'll get slaughtered by a powerful, well led army. How long do you expect Brazil to stand behind their emperor in such a scenario?

Blitzkrieg is not the ridiculous part. the crazy part is having Lopez create the military necessary. the funding availability is a stretch, but Lopez did not have the personality or the ability. however, if he had been created by a sperm/egg that included both competence and megalomaniac audacity, watch out.

 

[nandalf]

The Brazilian imperial navy was the darling of the empire,it was better trained led and equipped than the army,note prestigious too.I strongly doubt that the Paraguayans can match it in war.

 

[Monter]

So far no one has explained how a landlocked, isolated and backward South American country gets all the capital, resources and personnel to create such "Prussia of the South" in those scenarios other than "let's assume they do".

 

[Gukpard]

So far no one has explained how a landlocked, isolated and backward South American country gets all the capital, resources and personnel to create such "Prussia of the South" in those scenarios other than "let's assume they do".

I should create a thread: What if Leopold II of Belgium declared that his natural border was from the meuse to the rhine and declare war on the French empire and on Prussia at the same time and invaded the Netherlands?

 

[unprincipled peter]

So far no one has explained how a landlocked, isolated and backward South American country gets all the capital, resources and personnel to create such "Prussia of the South" in those scenarios other than "let's assume they do".

The crazy part is that they could have. Lopez devoted all the resources of the country to the modernization of the country and to the military. Where it went wrong is that he only had a few years to do it (til the Uruguayan crisis) and he wasn't very effective in creating the army/navy. If he were a better military organizer, or if he were able, personality wise, to allow a competent adviser (it's not ASB to find a competent mercenary adviser) to organize his military, he could do it. Remember, he doesn't have to be European Prussian good. he has to be South American good. No offense to the continent, but at the time, neither Argentina or Brazil was anything any modern power would quake in fear at. His assault failed not because of lack of resources, but because the army was basically a mob charging over a hill. Had the military been better organized, which there is no earthly reason it couldn't have been, the war goes a lot different. Yes, the odds may be against them, but it is not ASB to suggest that within the confines of the situation, a better military and military campaign were definitely possible. Now, obviously, Lopez is Lopez, and hence none of that happened and if you keep him as OTL, its going to take ASB luck to get a different result. But Alternate History is about making a change and examining WI.

 

[Incanian]

In one of the more bizzare beginnings and conclusions of a war, the small country of Paraguay once declared war on all of its surrounding neighbours: Argentina, Uruguay, and Brazil. The country was completely decimated in the quick onslaught of foreign armies.

The challenge is that Paraguay is successful in this endeavor. Either by going against each country separately similar to Prussia's approach (Austria-Denmark-France), or due to sheer military genius, Paraguay must successfully defend itself against its foreign neighbours and take some of their territories.

For reference here is a map of Paraguay and the neighbouring region:

I think Paraguay will especially want a coast. I know it's stretching the line, but Paraguay does not want to be landlocked. If it doesn't get a coast, due to its high casualty rate, they may get away with more on the bargaining table. Also with such the high casualty rate, Paraguay is probably going to need to vitalize getting land with high populations to regain the population they lost in the war, and then some. If they don't get a coast, Paraguay will ask for Amazon river access. Paraguay is in front of 3 people who want revenge, they would need to recover as fast as possible.

I think they'd seek allies, and I could see Peru, and Bolivia as allies in any future wars. Maybe Chile as well against Argentina. Just my thoughts though.

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

If the Zulus, armed with spears, could beat the British, the Paraguayans could beat the Brazilians.

 

[Gukpard]

If the Zulus, armed with spears, could beat the British, the Paraguayans could beat the Brazilians.

Catch phrases cannot change the reality. The Zulus lost at the end. The zulus also had centuries to master their own battle tactics and their cohesion, while Paraguay had nothing of that. THe zulus also had their own advantages on combat, they knew the terrain, they had a better phisical training than the british, while the paraguayans are the invaders and their diet was poorer.

 

[Mr.J]

Here’s the problem.

Only so many groups have access to a time machine and a large number of assault rifles.

Of those groups, very few are not connected with any government or research body.

The remainder, generally, go for religious fundamentalism or white supremacism, so they would have zero motivation to go help Paraguay, and some might even go help Brazil or Argentina if they find out that Paraguay is getting help.

So then, you have no one interested in running modern assault rifles to the Paraguayans, which is pretty much the only scenario that could possibly cause the war to end in anything remotely resembling something other than the near-eradication of Paraguay.

What if Paraguayan nationalists get access to a time machine though?

 

[Md139115]

What if Paraguayan nationalists get access to a time machine though?

Then G-d help us all...

 

[Arkenfolm]

I think Paraguay will especially want a coast. I know it's stretching the line, but Paraguay does not want to be landlocked. If it doesn't get a coast, due to its high casualty rate, they may get away with more on the bargaining table. Also with such the high casualty rate, Paraguay is probably going to need to vitalize getting land with high populations to regain the population they lost in the war, and then some. If they don't get a coast, Paraguay will ask for Amazon river access. Paraguay is in front of 3 people who want revenge, they would need to recover as fast as possible.

I think they'd seek allies, and I could see Peru, and Bolivia as allies in any future wars. Maybe Chile as well against Argentina. Just my thoughts though.

All Paraguay needs is free navigation along the Parana River, and a way to make sure Argentina continues to respect that right. The easiest way to do so is to ensure that "Argentina" is a meaningless concept, since after all, Paraguay (and Uruguay) were nominally Argentine provinces. Hence where Paraguay would benefit big time from helping to inflame internal tensions in Argentina which would hopefully lead to the dissolution of Argentina and as the "Prussia of Latin America", Paraguay could exert influence through her puppet in Entre Rios/Corrientes to always ensure access to the sea.

The best border changes would be to grab modern Misiones province and set the southern border in the Chaco at the Bermejo River (instead of the Pilcomayo as IOTL).