AHC: Paraguay gets a coastline

juanml82

juanml82

miguelrj said:
The latter, then.
Could Argentina effectivel block Entre-Ríos if Uruguay is friendly (or even neutral) towards Paraguay?
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No, and that's when a lot of coups, counter-coups and civil wars will be instigated in Uruguay.

EDIT: Well, I don't know. Rosas blockaded Montevideo in 1840 with the very pitiful fleet he had available. A victorious Paraguay is likely to have a relative powerful navy, though, and such blockades attract the attention of European powers.
 

unprincipled peter

Donor
you guys are making your POD based on OTL Portuguese-Brazil. Suppose Carlotta, who really didn't want to flee Portugal, decides to do in Joao upon hearing that the French were invading, thinking that she can make a deal once the trouble maker (from Napoleon's POV) is gone? Now you have a weak colonial Brazil which is likely to split into various countries, since Britain will prevent commerce between Brazil and any Portugal which is pals with Spain/France (which is why Joao tried to play a middle ground between France and Britain OTL). At this point, you no longer have the strong Brazil to act as a counter balance. OTL, I think Lopez' Paraguay would win against Argentina alone. Naturally, Argentina/Uruguay situation plays out much differently (who knows, it might even balkanize if you don't have Brazil to dispose of Artigas) so you don't know if Argentina is stronger or weaker than OTL. Anyhow, with a balkanized Brazil which didn't get a mega boost from the royal visit, and a potentially balkanized Argentina, It's possible for Lopez to play out his meglamania dreams.

Plus, the Missiones district was actually more likely to be Paraguayan (OTL, it ended up in Argentine hands as spoils of war), and from there it's really only a small land bridge to the coastline.
 

Axeman

I actually drafted a timeline on this but never got around to making anything of it :

In the 1830s Brazil's Southern Rebelion in the South http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riograndense_Republic ends with the collapse of Brazil. Some European power moves in to the former Portuguese Guyana ( in reality just taking control over the mouth of the amazon ) opportunistically while every other South American country engorges on minor territorial claims on Brazil. Uruguay gets a sliver and Paraguay probably gets part of Mato Grosso while the South goes independent and the interior largely lawless.

From here Paraguay courts the rump of Brazil so that if its not openly friendly, it is at least neutral. Having the Peru-Bolivar Confederation emerge intact against Argentina and Chile will do wonders too. Then have Chile really push claims in Patagonia (since it won't be able to think about taking Bolivia's coast) while at the same time putting Argentina into a financial crisis and surrounded by enemies.

Now Argentina, surrounded by Paraguay, Riograndese, Uruguay, Chile, and Peru-Bolivia does something stupid to solve a financial crisis like charging exorbitant tolls on the Paraguay River or preventing any goods from entering Montivideo from entering into the rest of Argentina (the later was done OTL to ensure Buenos Aires remained an important port). Combine with the prospect of foreign debt collectors in the form of gunboat diplomacy ( the French Blockaded Buenos Aires OTL for a time to get debts repaid ) and you have a situation where Paraguay can win.

After Argentina does something stupid to provoke war with Paraguay ( said tolls ) war begins with a large coalition against Argentina. Have Paraguay do really well with an amazing general who takes Buenos Aires and then demand negotiation.

Paraguay can get everything on the North / East Bank of the River Parana, Chile can get territory in Patagonia, and Bolivia territory in the NorthWest. Buenos Aires is firmly on the other side of the river as well are all of Argentina's major cities. Argentina loses valuable land, but not greatly valuable and not the majority of its population or capital like people imagine.

France and Britian will probably not allow Uruguay to be absorbed by Paraguay via coup backed by the Colorados due to the economic situation by having the staple-port system between Montevideo and Buenos Aires endangered by Paraguayan Hegemony.

Then since the timeline continues for a Paraguay Wank, Paraguay ends up grabbing the Chaco and Mato Grosso from Brazil and Bolivia, and ends up absorbing Uruguay anyway, but this would be in the future.
 

Tamandaré

Banned
unprincipled peter said:
you guys are making your POD based on OTL Portuguese-Brazil. Suppose Carlotta, who really didn't want to flee Portugal, decides to do in Joao upon hearing that the French were invading, thinking that she can make a deal once the trouble maker (from Napoleon's POV) is gone? Now you have a weak colonial Brazil which is likely to split into various countries, since Britain will prevent commerce between Brazil and any Portugal which is pals with Spain/France (which is why Joao tried to play a middle ground between France and Britain OTL). At this point, you no longer have the strong Brazil to act as a counter balance. OTL, I think Lopez' Paraguay would win against Argentina alone. Naturally, Argentina/Uruguay situation plays out much differently (who knows, it might even balkanize if you don't have Brazil to dispose of Artigas) so you don't know if Argentina is stronger or weaker than OTL. Anyhow, with a balkanized Brazil which didn't get a mega boost from the royal visit, and a potentially balkanized Argentina, It's possible for Lopez to play out his meglamania dreams.

Plus, the Missiones district was actually more likely to be Paraguayan (OTL, it ended up in Argentine hands as spoils of war), and from there it's really only a small land bridge to the coastline.
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Problems:
1. You're assuming that we will still see a independent Paraguay with a weakened Brazil. For decades the Argentineans treated Paraguay as a rebel province, a bunch of upstarts on rightful Argentinean territory. Their main diplomatic partner for a good time was Brazil, and it was the wars between Brazil and Argentina, along with other factors, that kept Argentina from taking Paraguay and stepping closer to a unified Plata. With such a fragmented Brazil, Paraguay might get conquered by the Argentineans or severely weakened.

2. Just because Carlotta sold out D. João doesn't means Portugal is doomed. According to some historical records, the french army that arrived in Lisbon was essentially a pathetic shadow of its former self, a bunch of tired, weakened, hungry soldiers fatigued from forced marching, who could barely hold their weapons, making the portuguese flight a hilarious cause of overestimation. The Portuguese might as well instead regroup under some hothead princes and beat back the French.

3. Lopez's Paraguay might never develop as it did with such a early PoD.
 

Petete123123

miguelrj said:
Yes, it'd be a land-only connection with dubious value. A situation not unlike the Brazilian relation with its Mato Grosso province: it was hardly reachable by land and easily reachable by boat across foreign territory.
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Well, there's a reason why Brazil wanted both Uruguay and free navigation of the Parana. Without free naviation and getting rid of Buenos Aires you are still having trouble.

What Paraguay needs is a port at the mouth of the Parana. Trouble is Buenos Aires already took the spot.
 

unprincipled peter

Donor
Tamandare,
Argentina tried conquering Paraguay, and failed. IF Argentina wanted to take over Paraguay, the time to do so was in the first couple of decades. It failed to do so in the first decade (Paraguay actually asked for Brazilian help, but was denied). It had opportunity to do so after kicking Brazil out of Uruguay. It had opportunity during the whole Rio do Sul uprisings in Brazil, but didn't, and then the Lopez's turned Paraguay into an armed fortress. Whatever strength Brazil had OTL was not what kept Argentina from retaking Paraguay. What kept Paraguay independent was geographical isolation and the notion that there wasn't enough there to make it worthwhile in conquering. The only way Argentina retakes Paraguay is if Argentina unifies in solidarity right off the bat, and that requires a wave of the magic wand.

The French invasion of Portugal isn't going to end just because the initial invasion force was held off. The initial force was going hell bent for leather because France wanted to capture the fleet. If Joao stays and fights, France simply holds off it's attempted takeover of Spain and sends an overwhelming force into Portugal. Portugal never stood a chance.

IF Francia comes to power (and there's no reason to think he wouldn't), I see Paraguay developing quite similar to OTL
 

Dathi THorfinnsson

Heh. I keep wanting to say that geological PoDs belong inthe asb forum. :) But, actually it kind of sounds like a massive earthquake might almost be as easy as the politico-military changes necessary.
 

miguelrj

unprincipled peter said:
Paraguay actually asked for Brazilian help, but was denied
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I already contemplated elsewhere in the forum the possibility of - not only Brazil giving Paraguay material help - but actually taking them as token allies to expand the War Against Artigas to Mesopotamia, offering it to Paraguay.

This would:
1. give Paraguay a shore and have the Plata mouth controlled by 3 countries, an equilibrium that might please the British
2. create a buffer between possibly-later-destabilizing-*Argentina and Brazil
3. *Argentina would be much more Congress of Tucumán-based. With the Federal League attacked in 3 fronts it might just collapse instead of taking over the Unitarist government of Buenos Aires.
 

unprincipled peter

Donor
Miguel,
Brazil had an arrangement with Buenos Aires/Argentina where Portuguese Brazil made a promise of not going after Entre Rios in return for BA looking the other way while Brazil took Uruguay. Breaking that arrangement is inviting a wider war. Besides, by the time Brazil decided to take on Artigas, Paraguay was in the grasp of Francia, who is looking to create a hermit state, not become a regional power. And, Portuguese Brazil is still eyeing Entre Rios for themselves. they're looking to make themselves the power in the region, not set up stronger nations to compete with.
If paraguayan independence had gone down differently, maybe. I've toyed with the notion of assisting Paraguay during Belgrano's invasion and looking to make it a vassal state, while taking Entre Rios for themselves. But, that turns into a Brazil wank instead of the desired Paraguay wank. So back up a step, assist Paraguay and butterfly away Francia (maybe he gets caught in the crossfire). Now you've got a Paraguay that might be an ally, and if you can back off the greed factor, give Paraguay Corrientes and maybe Entre Rios and they have great access to the sea, but technically not a coastline. Still, if I'm Brazil, I fear making too big a state who controls access to Mato Grasso and almost surrounds Do Sul/Uruguay (with the missiones district).
 

miguelrj

unprincipled peter said:
Brazil had an arrangement with Buenos Aires/Argentina where Portuguese Brazil made a promise of not going after Entre Rios in return for BA looking the other way while Brazil took Uruguay.
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I never would have imagined that! (How do you get to know these things? :p)

unprincipled peter said:
Still, if I'm Brazil, I fear making too big a state who controls access to Mato Grasso and almost surrounds Do Sul/Uruguay (with the missiones district).
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But the advantageous and potentially menacing geographic features you're describing were IOTL possessed by Argentina...
I believe that from a Brazilian point of view it would be preferable to have a Greater Paraguay and a Greater Buenos Aires than a pan-Plata state...
 

unprincipled peter

Donor
"from a Brazilian point of view it would be preferable to have a Greater Paraguay and a Greater Buenos Aires than a pan-Plata state..."

Maybe, maybe not. Missiones/corrientes is a long way from Buenos Aires. They're just after thoughts to the country. However, if they're part of Paraguay, they're in the thick of things, plus, they're guarana country, so that's another base of population for Paraguay (which is also guarana country). And there you go: a greater Paraguay with a larger base for a Lopez, which doesn't have to go through Argentina to attack Brazil, and now you have a shot at a coast line. Which is why Brazil should be leary about creating such a country.
 

miguelrj

Yes, if López isn't butterflied away, it's scary for Brazil in hindsight. Do remember, though, that a Paraguay with Mesopotamia already has a coastline, albeit a thin one.
 
Reagent

Reagent

Here is an idea:

1. Have Brazil and Paraguay ally
2. Have a Brazil/Paraguay vs Argentina war (perhaps with various factions on Uruguay on either side.
3. Have Brazil/Paraguay win. Brazil annexes Misiones Province and a pro-Brazil faction is installed in Uruguay (at least for the moment). Paraguay can gain Formosa Province perhaps.

Brazil is going to want Argentina to demilitarize Martín García Island (in order to prevent the Argentine's from blocking the Brazilian Navy from accessing the Uruguay River).

Brazil might feel that they can't trust Argentina (or Uruguay for fear that Argentina might eventually re-establish influence there) to keep the agreement, and transfer the island to Paraguay instead (who would be in Brazil's camp, and could fortify the island from Argentine reconquest). Control of the island would be very weak at first. However, Brazil could (with Paraguayan finances helping) build a Canal between the Paraná River and Uruguay River in recently annexed Misiones Province. The Paraguayan Navy will now have relatively unimpeded access to the Atlantic (as long as Uruguay is neutral or pro-Brazil) and Martín García Island. Argentina will probably want any land taken from it back, so Brazil and Paraguay will be natural allies to prevent this, so conflict between the nations is minimized. Thus Paraguay has a small coastline on the Atlantic (though perhaps not the intent of the OP)
 
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