AHC: Paraguay gets a coastline
- Thread starter miguelrj
- Start date
Well, perhaps in a situation with increased tension between Argentina and Brazil, sometime before the War of the Triple Alliance, Paraguay could integrate Uruguay to act as a neutral buffer state between the two powers. Though I'm not sure how long that would last and it would most likely cause issues down the road.
Best chance is Paraguay wins the Triple Alliance War by a huge margin. Have Justo José de Urquiza join the war during the Corrientes Offensive. Before the war began, have Paraguay successfully launch a coup installing a pro-Paraguay Government. In the initial offensive take Cuiabá. Don't care how, just take it. That will slow the Brazilian army a huge amount. After that it's up in the air. They need to keep up the offensive, have a better navy and then force a battle of attrition with all the the territory they want already in their control.
Is Paraguay capable of conquering stuff? It looks like such an itty bitty country.
Its an itty bitty country.
It was also fanatical and completely insane. At least 60% of Paraguay's population died before they finally surrendered.
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If Buenos Aires exists it Paraguay wont be able to take the right bank. Brazil wont let them have Uruguay.
Only chance is Paraguay not becoming a country of its own and staying with the rest of the country.
Only chance is Paraguay not becoming a country of its own and staying with the rest of the country.
It's a logistical impossibility. The lands weren't developed, the terrain is very hard, there are tropical diseases.It wouldn't work.
But Urquiza sits in the way of any potential coastline Paraguay could have. At most, Urquiza would reassess his dominance of Argentina. And his enemies might very well call him a traitor.
I doubt Paraguay could end up with a coastline. Their best bet would be to ally with Brazil against Argentina. But Brazil won't let them have Uruguay and to get a coastline in Argentina they need to conquer Buenos Aires, which means subjugating the most populated areas of Argentina.
The Mesopotamian provinces make up a smooth corridor to the sea. I don't know if the thin thin thin coastline of Entre Ríos is port material but it's a coastline.
Is the UK capable of conquering stuff? It's barely half the size of Paraguay.
Yeah but unlike Paraguay, the UK always (more or less anyway) had their shit together.
After thinking about it you probably wouldn't be able to get a coastline from Brazil in the Triple Alliance war. A TL I could see working is Paraguay installing a Pro-Uruguay Government, via a coup. Keep Argentina out of the way by not marching through Argentinian turf. Play the attrition game and hold after the initial push. You will not get a coast line in this war though. You will however probably force Brazil to the table. Argentina will want to exploit the weakness of Brazil and Brazil can not afford Argentina to join the war. It will seek an early way out, probably concessions of territory in Mato Graso and the Rio. What could really swing it for you is to have Uruguay accept a Paraguayan hegemony following the end of the war. If you could do that you get your coast and suddenly Paraguay is a regional power.
Sure. Not going to happen. You have like 1000 km between Paraguay and Uruguay. Not to mention Mesopotamia is between them. Swampy coastline and so much mud in the water.
Besides, if that was the case there is going to be a faction in Uruguay who will seek independence. And it will be heavily funded by Argentina, Brazil and the UK.
In order for Paraguay to control directly or indirectly Uruguay for a long time, it needs to have sovereign access to it. If by chance we get a Para-Uruguay, it would be a challenge to have territorial contiguity for this entity without annexing Argentine land. A strip connecting the two at the expenses of Brazil would have to go all the way around Argentine Misiones with an awkward curvy strip going through Western Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul.
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It's easily blockable from the River Plate, and the rump Argentine state will do everything on its power to wage, at least, economic warfare against Paraguay to regain those rich provinces.
So they not only need the Mesopotamian provinces, they also need either Buenos Aires or Uruguay.
Paraguay is part of Parana's basin. Rio Grande do Sul is part of Uruguay's basin. Where are you crossing? It's not like terrain favors it. In any case you would need at least Corrientes province and then you would still be material for an easy blockade.
The latter, then.
Could Argentina effectivel block Entre-Ríos if Uruguay is friendly (or even neutral) towards Paraguay?
Yes, it'd be a land-only connection with dubious value. A situation not unlike the Brazilian relation with its Mato Grosso province: it was hardly reachable by land and easily reachable by boat across foreign territory.