Then again, Trump is a huge watcher for Fox news. This is the source for a lot of his ideas.
AHC: Paleoconservative US President (1988 to 2008)
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John Fredrick Parker
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Looking at past members of the US Housd Liberty Caucus for ideas, I thought I'd ask -- would you say Ron Paul, Roscoe Bartlett, and/or Butch Otter were Paleoconservative, or would they be more "straight-forward" Libertarian? Because they were all politically active as of the PoD limit (1975) and might have risen in politically success earlier than OTL. I'm specifically looking for somebody who might have been a serious candidate for President by 1992.
If Pat Buchanan manages to win the GOP nomination in 1996 (say Forbes doesn't win), I think he has a real shot at beating Clinton by siphoning off Perot voters and disaffected Democrats over the NAFTA issue. Obviously he has his many liabilities, but I'd put his odds at winning in the 90's (when Americans were more receptive to the kinds of ideas he espoused) at no less than 40% in a head to head match-up with #42.
What prominent Paleoconservative politicians are there eve ln?
Pat Buchanan comes to mind as the highest profile Paleoconservative. I could see him possibly grabbing the 1996 Republican nomination.
Tom Tancredo winning the 2010 Colorado Gubernatorial would mean there'd be a paleocon who was won statewide office.
Others are
Ron Paul (Paleolibertarian not Paleocon, but close enough)
Walter B Jones
Jimmy Duncan
Virgil Goode (who ran for President in 2012 and went absolutely nowhere).
Maybe the GOP nominates somebody absolutely horrible in 2012 (Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, or Michelle Bachmann) or is so moderate or liberal on various issues that they break the GOP coalition (Huntsman or Johnson come to mind) and a Tancredo-Goode Constitution Party ticket pops up to be the "true conservative" ticket and takes the presidency.
If its Obama v Johnson v Tancredo, Tancredo could have a path to victory by making the whole election about trade, immigration, and the culture wars. Johnson and Obama would be more similar to one another than Tancredo and Tancredo could eek out a plurality maybe. Johnson being GOP nominee would likely require there to be some kind of bus accident with all of the other GOP nominees on it though.
Pat Buchanan comes to mind as the highest profile Paleoconservative. I could see him possibly grabbing the 1996 Republican nomination.
Tom Tancredo winning the 2010 Colorado Gubernatorial would mean there'd be a paleocon who was won statewide office.
Others are
Ron Paul (Paleolibertarian not Paleocon, but close enough)
Walter B Jones
Jimmy Duncan
Virgil Goode (who ran for President in 2012 and went absolutely nowhere).
Maybe the GOP nominates somebody absolutely horrible in 2012 (Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, or Michelle Bachmann) or is so moderate or liberal on various issues that they break the GOP coalition (Huntsman or Johnson come to mind) and a Tancredo-Goode Constitution Party ticket pops up to be the "true conservative" ticket and takes the presidency.
If its Obama v Johnson v Tancredo, Tancredo could have a path to victory by making the whole election about trade, immigration, and the culture wars. Johnson and Obama would be more similar to one another than Tancredo and Tancredo could eek out a plurality maybe. Johnson being GOP nominee would likely require there to be some kind of bus accident with all of the other GOP nominees on it though.
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John Fredrick Parker
Donor
Here's the main thing I'm thinking -- if we go with a (by now familiar to this site) TL where Ford narrowly wins the 1976 Electoral College, leading to a Democratic 1980's, and assuming the End of the Cold War* still happens by 1990 or so, then would (or might) the Republican Party head in this kind of paleoconservative or paloelibertarian direction, giving us such a nominee in 1988 or 92?
*(i.e. Gorbachev style reforms, an equivalent of the 1989 Revolutions in Eastern Europe, etc)
Were either Kemp or Laxalt paleoconservative? Or even paleolibertarian (as opposed to regular libertarian conservative)?
*(i.e. Gorbachev style reforms, an equivalent of the 1989 Revolutions in Eastern Europe, etc)
Neither Kemp nor Laxalt were Paleoconservative or even Paleolibertarian. Kemp was a racially-sympathic supply side conservative, which I guess you could clump into the basket of culturally liberal-minded Republicanism that (non-paleo) libertarianism and rockefeller republicanism are in. Laxalt was just a straightforward conservative.
I can't see Reagan picking a Paleoconservative VP. There weren't any Paleocons of high enough stature at the time for Reagan to pick.
The Democrats ran a Ron Paul supporter (Bob Conley) against Lindsey Graham in 2008 Senate Race. Graham won handily but maybe something could be done there to put a Paleocon in the Senate. That'd be some Virgil Goode level oddity right there.
I can't see Reagan picking a Paleoconservative VP. There weren't any Paleocons of high enough stature at the time for Reagan to pick.
The Democrats ran a Ron Paul supporter (Bob Conley) against Lindsey Graham in 2008 Senate Race. Graham won handily but maybe something could be done there to put a Paleocon in the Senate. That'd be some Virgil Goode level oddity right there.
Jackson,
I think we need to agree on definitions. Neoconservatives were people who were once democrats or leftists who became conservative. Kemp and Laxalt were Reagan Conservatives. Laxalt ran in 1988 on his friendship with Reagan. Kemp interned with Governor Reagan. He certainly wasn't a Rockefeller Republican. He was one of the potential challengers to Jacob Javits.
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
daveg,
I agree that paleoconservatism can be tricky to define, but it's absolutely not the same thing as "Reagan Conservative".
Here's a bare bones timeline. President Buchanan - Part 1
1978: GOP Senate nominee Richard Obenshain dies in a plane crash and is replaced on the ballot with former WH Staffer and Polical Commentator Patrick J. Buchanan. Despite trailing in the polls Buchanan wins in an upset over his Democrat opponent. Tom Pauken is elected to Congress from Texas. Evan Meacham is elected Governor of Arizona.
1983: Congressman Larry McDonald decides to take an earlier flight and is not killed in the 007 Attack. McDonald will continue to serve in Congress and grow the John Birch Society as well.
1984: Senator Buchanan is easily re-elected to the Senate. Congressman Pauken is elected Senator from Texas.
1986: Governor Mecham is elected to Senate.
1987: Senator Pat Buchanan seriously considers running for President but decides against it.
1990: Senators Buchanan and Pauken are easily re-elected. Senator Buchanan's sister Bay Buchanan is elected State Treasurer of California.
1991: Senator Buchanan runs for President against President Bush.
1992: Buchanan narrowly wins the New Hampshire primary over Bush. Buchanan will go on to win several more primaries before ultimately losing the nomination to Bush. Congressman McDonald switches parties and runs for Senate as a Republican. He narrowly wins the primary and the general.
1993: Senators Buchanan successfully leads the fight against NAFTA after winning a debate with Al Gore on Larry King Live.
1994: Bay Buchanan and Oliver North are elected to the Senate. Senator Pauken is elected Senate Majority Whip.
1995: Buchanan announces for president and is seen as the front-runner along with Bob Dole.
1996: Buchanan wins Iowa and New Hampshire and Dole drops out. Buchanan beats Forbes and Alexanders in the stretch and wins the nomination. After a very memorable campaign, Buchanan narrowly beats Clinton in the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote.
Woody Jenkins is elected to the Senate from Louisiana and VA Lt. Governor Michael Ferris is elected to Buchanan's seat in the Senate.
1978: GOP Senate nominee Richard Obenshain dies in a plane crash and is replaced on the ballot with former WH Staffer and Polical Commentator Patrick J. Buchanan. Despite trailing in the polls Buchanan wins in an upset over his Democrat opponent. Tom Pauken is elected to Congress from Texas. Evan Meacham is elected Governor of Arizona.
1983: Congressman Larry McDonald decides to take an earlier flight and is not killed in the 007 Attack. McDonald will continue to serve in Congress and grow the John Birch Society as well.
1984: Senator Buchanan is easily re-elected to the Senate. Congressman Pauken is elected Senator from Texas.
1986: Governor Mecham is elected to Senate.
1987: Senator Pat Buchanan seriously considers running for President but decides against it.
1990: Senators Buchanan and Pauken are easily re-elected. Senator Buchanan's sister Bay Buchanan is elected State Treasurer of California.
1991: Senator Buchanan runs for President against President Bush.
1992: Buchanan narrowly wins the New Hampshire primary over Bush. Buchanan will go on to win several more primaries before ultimately losing the nomination to Bush. Congressman McDonald switches parties and runs for Senate as a Republican. He narrowly wins the primary and the general.
1993: Senators Buchanan successfully leads the fight against NAFTA after winning a debate with Al Gore on Larry King Live.
1994: Bay Buchanan and Oliver North are elected to the Senate. Senator Pauken is elected Senate Majority Whip.
1995: Buchanan announces for president and is seen as the front-runner along with Bob Dole.
1996: Buchanan wins Iowa and New Hampshire and Dole drops out. Buchanan beats Forbes and Alexanders in the stretch and wins the nomination. After a very memorable campaign, Buchanan narrowly beats Clinton in the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote.
Woody Jenkins is elected to the Senate from Louisiana and VA Lt. Governor Michael Ferris is elected to Buchanan's seat in the Senate.
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John Fredrick Parker
Donor
@HaroldGodwinson For some reason, your references to Ron Paul are spelled "Pauken".
President Buchanan - Part 2
1997-99: Buchanan assembles his cabinet. Ron Paul becomes Secretary of State. Bob Dole becomes Secretary of Defense. Paul Craig Roberts is appointed as Treasury Secretary. His first few years in office (remembered as the "Conservative New Deal") are filled with high impact legislation.
2000: Senator Paul Wellstone defeats Al Gore for the Democratic nomination and picks Jeanne Shaheen as his running mate.
Buchanan wins the nomination unopposed after he successfully sidelines several potential challengers.
Buchanan receives a further boost shortly after the GOP convention, when Wellstone is diagnosed with a mild form of multiple sclerosis, previously claimed to be ‘an old wrestling injury’. Public unease over the injury manifests itself in the polls: briefly, Buchanan takes a 20 point lead.
The first two Presidential debates are spirited with Buchanan defending his record and making the case for his “conservatism of the heart”, and Wellstone making his case for a “compassionate society”. The final debate is more temperate, with both candidates attempting to present a moderate image.
Buchanan wins the popular vote, 51.4%, to 47.9%. Buchanan wins in the Electoral College 335-203.
In the Senate, The GOP wins a filibuster proof majority. The Republicans gain over 8 seats in the House of Representatives.
1997-99: Buchanan assembles his cabinet. Ron Paul becomes Secretary of State. Bob Dole becomes Secretary of Defense. Paul Craig Roberts is appointed as Treasury Secretary. His first few years in office (remembered as the "Conservative New Deal") are filled with high impact legislation.
- The Industry Restoration Act, installing new tariffs on imports, and cutting taxes on domestic business is steered through Congress in the first months of the administration, against resistance from free-trade Republicans and Democrats.
- Congress passes a balanced budget amendment that requires a 3/5s majority to pass an unbalanced budget. The amendment will be ratified in 1999.
- The first Buchanan budget is a moderate, pragmatic compromise, evidence of the continued influence of moderates over the administration. Tariffs are restored, and a flat tax (of 15%), devised by Forbes, are implemented. The budget also fulfills Buchanan’s campaign promises – by cutting the Department of Education funding by 90% and block-granting education dollars to the states, cutting foreign aid, and withholding aid from the U.N.
- American troops serving in Europe, Japan, and Africa are largely withdrawn. Americans cease to participate in UN peacekeeping missions. America is perceived, abroad, as non-interventionist and is consequently more popular.
- Buchanan’s 1998 Budget is his first budget developed outside the influence of moderates. The budget is balanced and several departments and agencies are de-funded or abolished.
- Buchanan, ends racial discrimination and quotas in the federal government.
- The Border Patrol receives an infusion of funding. Plans are made for the construction of a wall along the border (which will be completed in 2003).
- Congress passes the legislation to end chain migration, set up a points system, and limit green cards to 250,000 per year.
2000: Senator Paul Wellstone defeats Al Gore for the Democratic nomination and picks Jeanne Shaheen as his running mate.
Buchanan wins the nomination unopposed after he successfully sidelines several potential challengers.
Buchanan receives a further boost shortly after the GOP convention, when Wellstone is diagnosed with a mild form of multiple sclerosis, previously claimed to be ‘an old wrestling injury’. Public unease over the injury manifests itself in the polls: briefly, Buchanan takes a 20 point lead.
The first two Presidential debates are spirited with Buchanan defending his record and making the case for his “conservatism of the heart”, and Wellstone making his case for a “compassionate society”. The final debate is more temperate, with both candidates attempting to present a moderate image.
Buchanan wins the popular vote, 51.4%, to 47.9%. Buchanan wins in the Electoral College 335-203.
In the Senate, The GOP wins a filibuster proof majority. The Republicans gain over 8 seats in the House of Representatives.
Not a mistake. Tom Pauken is a real person. https://www.ourcampaigns.com/CandidateDetail.html?CandidateID=29881
President Buchanan - Part 3
2001-02: President Buchanan responds to the 9/11 attacks with a massive retaliatory strike in Afghanistan that kills OBL. Buchanan also implements regulations that effectively bans Muslim immigration into the U.S. Buchanan does not declare a "War on Terror" or invade and occupy any countries.
Democrats make gains in the midterms but fail to gains the majority.
2003-04: President Buchanan appoints Janice Rogers Brown to the Supreme Court to replace Sandra Day O'Conner and Roy Moore to succeed William Rehnquist. Antonin Scalia is appointed Chief Justice.
The Republicans have a large field of candidates since Buchanan's VP doesn't run. The Democrats nominate John Edwards after a tough battle with Senator Hillary Clinton.
Edwards narrowly wins the general election and the Democrats win control of the House with Dick Gephardt as speaker, while the GOP still holds the Senate with Tom Pauken as Majority Leader.
2005-06: John Edwards appoints Leah Ward Sears to SCOTUS. His attempts to expand Medicare and Medicaid are defeated in the GOP controlled. The failure of "Edwardscare" helps the GOP rally support in the midterms.
The Republicans retake the House in 2006 and expand there Senate majority.
2007-08: President Edwards continues to push his populist message in his bid for re-election and runs unopposed in the Democratic primaries until a scandal about his mistress and love-child blows sky high in late 2007. Edwards denies the allegations and refuses to drop out of the race. By the time the scandal has been proven true, it's too late and Edwards is renominated by a very depressed DNC.
The GOP nominates for Senate Majority Leader Tom Pauken for president after a crowded primary.
Edwards and Pauken run a close race until the economic panic when Pauken surges ahead.
Pauken beats Edwards by the biggest margin since 1984, (54-45%) and the GOP win historic majorities in Congress.
2009-10: President Pauken signs the FAIR Tax Act of 2009 into law and appoints John Roberts to SCOTUS.
Pauken has to make significant cuts to spending to balance the budget and this proves highly unpopular.
Democrats make significant gains in the midterms.
2001-02: President Buchanan responds to the 9/11 attacks with a massive retaliatory strike in Afghanistan that kills OBL. Buchanan also implements regulations that effectively bans Muslim immigration into the U.S. Buchanan does not declare a "War on Terror" or invade and occupy any countries.
Democrats make gains in the midterms but fail to gains the majority.
2003-04: President Buchanan appoints Janice Rogers Brown to the Supreme Court to replace Sandra Day O'Conner and Roy Moore to succeed William Rehnquist. Antonin Scalia is appointed Chief Justice.
The Republicans have a large field of candidates since Buchanan's VP doesn't run. The Democrats nominate John Edwards after a tough battle with Senator Hillary Clinton.
Edwards narrowly wins the general election and the Democrats win control of the House with Dick Gephardt as speaker, while the GOP still holds the Senate with Tom Pauken as Majority Leader.
2005-06: John Edwards appoints Leah Ward Sears to SCOTUS. His attempts to expand Medicare and Medicaid are defeated in the GOP controlled. The failure of "Edwardscare" helps the GOP rally support in the midterms.
The Republicans retake the House in 2006 and expand there Senate majority.
2007-08: President Edwards continues to push his populist message in his bid for re-election and runs unopposed in the Democratic primaries until a scandal about his mistress and love-child blows sky high in late 2007. Edwards denies the allegations and refuses to drop out of the race. By the time the scandal has been proven true, it's too late and Edwards is renominated by a very depressed DNC.
The GOP nominates for Senate Majority Leader Tom Pauken for president after a crowded primary.
Edwards and Pauken run a close race until the economic panic when Pauken surges ahead.
Pauken beats Edwards by the biggest margin since 1984, (54-45%) and the GOP win historic majorities in Congress.
2009-10: President Pauken signs the FAIR Tax Act of 2009 into law and appoints John Roberts to SCOTUS.
Pauken has to make significant cuts to spending to balance the budget and this proves highly unpopular.
Democrats make significant gains in the midterms.
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I didn't call Kemp a Rockefeller Republican. I called him a culturally liberal Republican. Rockefeller Republicans and Libertarian Republicans (who are non-paleo) are other groups I'd consider culturally liberal Republicans.
Kemp was most definitely not a Paleoconservative nor were most Reagan conservatives.
Neoconservatism, broadly defined, is supportive of the liberal international order. Neoconservatives are pro-trade, generally pro-immigration (to varying degrees), and supportive of an aggressive promotion of liberal values abroad. Economically they tend to support the idea of a welfare state, albeit a more neoliberal form thereof (unlike other types of conservatives). They also are cultural traditionalists, albeit in more of a classically liberal middle-class values sort of way.
Paleoconservatism is nationalistic, anti-trade, anti-immigration, anti-liberal (in the sense of liberal internationalism), very culturally conservative in a more tribalistic fashion. They're anti-intervention and anti-internationalist in foreign policy as well.
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Jackson,
Please give me an example. By your description, Reagan wasn't a Paleoconservative. Was William F Buckley?
What do you think Paleoconservative amounts to as a political tendency? Because you appear to be conflating it with movement Conservatism. That's not how its generally applied, and if you're going to go with an idiosyncratic definition, then you need to flesh that out for us.