AHC Ottomans stay neutral

How could the Ottoman Empire have avoided signing the Ottoman German Alliance (or simply refuse to follow it) and remained neutral during World War 1? Also what would the effect be on the course of the war? My exhaustive research (aka browsing Wikipedia) has found that Sultan Mehmed V was opposed to the alliance so perhaps him having some more power would work but how to achieve this I have no idea.
 

MrP

Banned
Abdul Hadi Pasha brought to my attention that even very shortly (a few months) before the war the Ottomans did seek an alliance with the French. They felt that they needed to be aligned with one of the two armed camps, lest they should be torn apart by the victors of any great war. There was a goodly amount of cooperation between Germany and the Ottomans, yet this shouldn't be seen in a vacuum. The RN, as the most highly regarded (rightly or wrongly) naval service, was seen as the right choice for strengthening the Ottoman Navy. In the event, the French were too wary of upsetting the Russians, the British weren't sufficiently interested (and took the opportunity to snatch more bits of the Empire), and the Germans did not fear upsetting the Russians, and saw the benefit of diverting enemy forces to fight on a broader front.

So you might want to look into the poor old Kaiser making one of his diplomatic faux pas, and the Russians taking the view that if the war does last longer than they hope, then they will need the Straits open. That would not mean the Russians would become closer to the Ottomans, but it might allow the French to act in their interests. The option I went for was to strengthen Anglo-ottoman industrial and business connections, and have the British Army, not the German, called in to oversee the retraining of the Ottoman military. There are problems with this, since it places the British in a position of domination over both land and sea forces, and the British Army wasn't the one anyone went to for bringing their troops up to scratch. So I had to have some slight handwaving, and suggested that behind-the-scenes Franco-Russian influence had made it clear to the Ottomans that getting the Germans in would be regarded disfavourably.

I hope this is of some help to you!
 
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Quite simple the Ottomans stay neutral because of Austria Hungary who head Botches up badly. I suggest you kill off Enver Pasha:eek: he was a germanophile so with him dead Ottomans don't have any inclination to ally with Germany, so they remain neutral. Instead the Ottomans divert all their attention to quelling Arabia and modernizing and reforming internally. So when Germany loses the war like OTL the German advisors stay in Turkey and help modernize the Ottomans, have the sultan turn his country into a sort of Monarchial republic where the king is the executive like the USA except he is herditary not elected while the gov is elected by people, have him listen to new ideas and with the Arabian rebbelions crushedthe young Turks never gain much power, maybe butterfling away the Armenian genocide, so you have a surviving Ottoman empire, the only Problem I see is if Hitler still rises to power like OTL I doubt the Ottomans would stand any chance against the German army.
 
Quite simple the Ottomans stay neutral because of Austria Hungary who head Botches up badly. I suggest you kill off Enver Pasha:eek: he was a germanophile so with him dead Ottomans don't have any inclination to ally with Germany, so they remain neutral. Instead the Ottomans divert all their attention to quelling Arabia and modernizing and reforming internally. So when Germany loses the war like OTL the German advisors stay in Turkey and help modernize the Ottomans, have the sultan turn his country into a sort of Monarchial republic where the king is the executive like the USA except he is herditary not elected while the gov is elected by people, have him listen to new ideas and with the Arabian rebbelions crushedthe young Turks never gain much power, maybe butterfling away the Armenian genocide, so you have a surviving Ottoman empire, the only Problem I see is if Hitler still rises to power like OTL I doubt the Ottomans would stand any chance against the German army.

There were other incentives to ally with Germany - they both hate Russia, and unlike Britain Germany had no outward colonial motives in the Middle Eastern region. Nevertheless, it is not impossible to keep the neutral, and if they play their cards right I could see a surviving Ottoman Empire as a constitutional monarchy. As for Hitler - no Ottomans in the war significantly changes the outcome (if the British get to use the straights, they can get more goods to the Russians) and Germany may be defeated earlier. This unleashes a slew of butterflies, probably preventing Hitler's rise. Who knows, maybe he is sent to a different unit in the Austrian army and ends up getting shot by a Russian soldier in one of Austria's many defeats.
 
Easiest. Challenge. Ever!

Seriously, though, I think you folks are over-thinking the matter. Whatever incentives and interests the Ottomans had in joining the Central Powers, the actual process of becoming involved was extremely contingent.

Churchill brusquely denied the Ottomans two ships they'd already paid for - whack the bulldog and your problem is solved.

The Germans managed to get two of their Mediterranean ships into the Dardanelles before the British could sink them and promptly handed them to the Ottomans. That made a huge difference, because....

The Ottoman leadership didn't actually decide to go to war, much less choose the German side. One of the "Young Turks" running the state sent the German ships to bombard a Russian port without informing the others. This act was not only the Ottoman entry into the war, but also outrageously, blindingly, overwhelmingly easy to avoid for the alternate historian.
 
Easiest. Challenge. Ever!

Seriously, though, I think you folks are over-thinking the matter. Whatever incentives and interests the Ottomans had in joining the Central Powers, the actual process of becoming involved was extremely contingent.

Churchill brusquely denied the Ottomans two ships they'd already paid for - whack the bulldog and your problem is solved.

The Germans managed to get two of their Mediterranean ships into the Dardanelles before the British could sink them and promptly handed them to the Ottomans. That made a huge difference, because....

The Ottoman leadership didn't actually decide to go to war, much less choose the German side. One of the "Young Turks" running the state sent the German ships to bombard a Russian port without informing the others. This act was not only the Ottoman entry into the war, but also outrageously, blindingly, overwhelmingly easy to avoid for the alternate historian.
Quoted for truth
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Ottomans not entering the war would have been the best for everyone.

The Ottoman Empire would have survived, but the Young Turk dictatorship wouldn't have lasted for long (as I have argued earlier, the dictatorship was not supported by all Young Turks). Instead a Third Constitutional Era would have been very likely to begin the early 20s.

For WW1, the Entente would have more resources to use against Germany and Austria- Hungary with no Ottomans to consider? Probable Entente wank.
 
The Ottoman leadership didn't actually decide to go to war, much less choose the German side. One of the "Young Turks" running the state sent the German ships to bombard a Russian port without informing the others. This act was not only the Ottoman entry into the war, but also outrageously, blindingly, overwhelmingly easy to avoid for the alternate historian.

That was the Enver Pasha mentioned earlier. Both in that and his other actions, losing the bulk of an army in Armenia making a mad advance in mid-winter.

The battleships were actually less important because Britain did offer to hire them. What would have been stupid, and probably career ending for Churchill, would have been to allow the sale to be completed, denying Britain two capital ships just as she enters the war, even without fears about the Turks possibly joining the central powers. It was a sore point in Turkey but that was more a propaganda move than serious discontent amongst the leadership of the Turkish empire.

Steve

Steve
 
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