AHC: Orthodox conversion east of Rus

[Elfwine]

That sounds like an interesting situation - something sort of like ancient Macedon, in the sense of a few towns and a lot of horse country.

And probably more militarily potent than commercially (trade routes through the area exist, but there's not a lot of wealth development of that sort within these realms to be).

 

[RGB]

That sounds like an interesting situation - something sort of like ancient Macedon, in the sense of a few towns and a lot of horse country.

And probably more militarily potent than commercially (trade routes through the area exist, but there's not a lot of wealth development of that sort within these realms to be).

Yes, the estimates I read for Western Kipchaks (or at the least the ones that the Rus dealt with directly) are quite low, well over 200K but probably under a million. The Russians were anywhere from four times to ten times as populous (basically somewhere around 6-7 million? Not all on the steppe of course), but much less mobile and since settled, vulnerable to raiding.

The Cumans' military importance is huge. Every major war of the time (mostly Russian vs. Russian but sometimes Russian vs. Bulgaria etc.) had Cuman allies to the Russian armies included in it. Russian princes also interfered in Cuman disputes on occasion, but mostly Cumans were the source of extra muscle for all the settled elites around them, under their own Khans.

For example when the tribes/princes of North Caucasus invaded Arran, Giorgi of Georgia intervened on behalf of his ally. There were Cumans involved on both sides.

Just before the Mongols struck in the 1240s, the Mordvins under Purgaz actively fought the princes of Suzdal (over what became Nizhny Novgorod). The Russians were allied with the Cumans (probably under Koten) and the Mokshans under Puresh, the Mordvins with the Volga Bulgars.

Of course there was involvement with the Caucasus and trade with Greece and Anatolia via the Crimean towns too.

It was an interesting period and there was a lot of deep involvement between the different nations. The Mongols really simplified things, I think.

 

[Elfwine]

That sounds like something that could have serious long term consequences for Russia (defined for discussion's sake as the lands of the Rus) - not necessarily bad ones, but hordes of butterflies.

Did most of these steppe dwellers die/flee OTL? I seem to recall reading that a lot of Kipchaks were included in the Golden Horde (once it "settled down", as it were, as opposed to merely being an invading army) - but that may still be far fewer than there were before.

 

[RGB]

That sounds like something that could have serious long term consequences for Russia (defined for discussion's sake as the lands of the Rus) - not necessarily bad ones, but hordes of butterflies.

Did most of these steppe dwellers die/flee OTL? I seem to recall reading that a lot of Kipchaks were included in the Golden Horde (once it "settled down", as it were, as opposed to merely being an invading army) - but that may still be far fewer than there were before.

The most famous is Koten's horde that migrated to Hungary after the defeat at Kalka, supposedly 40,000 "families". Supposedly they all got baptized (Koten himself in 1239). His daughter married the king's son, but the Hungarian nobles grew suspicious of them and killed many in a pogrom in the 1241. The Cumans pillaged the country in return, then most migrated to most then migrated to Bulgaria where they were a key component of future Bulgarian nobility and army.

It's likely that the Asens, Shishmans, Terters and probably Basarab himself were of Cuman ancestry.

Some thousands remained settled in Georgia, some probably relocated to Vladimir Rus (there are some place names that indicate Black Hats, so it's possible that Cumans also settled there), many were killed (resistance continued after '37, last major leader in the chronicles was Bachman who was killed in 38-39 during the invasion of Bulgaria). Most probably got assimilated by the Horde.

There are Kypchak/Cuman tribal names among Kazakhs, (modern) Kyrgyz, Nogai, Bashkirs and of course there's the Kunszag in Hungary.

So they probably remained pretty widespread but not very numerous. Batu notoriously had a hard time gathering a large army from his ulus after the Mongol empire became permanently disunited.

 

[Elfwine]

The most famous is Koten's horde that migrated to Hungary after the defeat at Kalka, supposedly 40,000 "families". Supposedly they all got baptized (Koten himself in 1239). His daughter married the king's son, but the Hungarian nobles grew suspicious of them and killed many in a pogrom in the 1241. The Cumans pillaged the country in return, then most migrated to most then migrated to Bulgaria where they were a key component of future Bulgarian nobility and army.

It's likely that the Asens, Shishmans, Terters and probably Basarab himself were of Cuman ancestry.

Some thousands remained settled in Georgia, some probably relocated to Vladimir Rus (there are some place names that indicate Black Hats, so it's possible that Cumans also settled there), many were killed (resistance continued after '37, last major leader in the chronicles was Bachman who was killed in 38-39 during the invasion of Bulgaria). Most probably got assimilated by the Horde.

There are Kypchak/Cuman tribal names among Kazakhs, (modern) Kyrgyz, Nogai, Bashkirs and of course there's the Kunszag in Hungary.

So they probably remained pretty widespread but not very numerous. Batu notoriously had a hard time gathering a large army from his ulus after the Mongol empire became permanently disunited.

So somewhat less than half of what had been there before, as a very rough guesstimate? Call it a quarter to a third of a million on the high end?

Approximations are very approximate, but trying to get a sense of what scale we're looking at more than specific numbers.

 

[RGB]

So somewhat less than half of what had been there before, as a very rough guesstimate? Call it a quarter to a third of a million on the high end?

Approximations are very approximate, but trying to get a sense of what scale we're looking at more than specific numbers.

As good a guesstimate as any, though of course populations recovered pretty nicely until the Great Troubles in the Horde and the subsequent devastation by Timur, so we can't directly extrapolate from today's populations.

 

[Elfwine]

As good a guesstimate as any, though of course populations recovered pretty nicely until the Great Troubles in the Horde and the subsequent devastation by Timur, so we can't directly extrapolate from today's populations.

Timur seems to have had a real knack for depopulation.

Not just short term - any conqueror can do that - but leaving lasting scars.