AHC: Operation Uranus Fails

Here's a challenge for you: Operation Uranus and Operation Saturn fail about as horribly as Operation Mars (aka The Rzhev Meat Grinder).

The Soviets can retake Stalingrad and push the Germans out of the Caucasus, but the 6th Army will definitely need to escape intact and the Soviets will definitely need to take a large amount of avoidable casualties while making limited gains.

POD is somewhere in August of 1942.

Also, with a failure of Uranus/Saturn, what would the effects on the Soviet and German positions be on the Eastern Front?
 
Or maybe no "Soviet mice" 23rd Panzer Division (I think it was this one) is able to control their rodent infestation with enough runners to succesfully contain the Red Army until reinforcements arrive, Though the Red Army retakes Stalingrad the 6th Army is not encircled and, probably after fighting every bit as bloody as Operation Mars was the Germans retain much of the terrain they took in the summer.

The Germans however are still locked into an attritional struggle of extremely bloody proportions so it remains a question of who bleeds to death first.
 
The whole Soviet mice thing had to have been an excuse for something else, likely attrition, lack of supplies and a lack of personnel.

In any event, the 6th Army had to be ready to break out when encircled, which it didn't, possibly for lack of supplies or fuel.

Maybe if the 1st Panzer Army didn't cross into the Caucasus (it just impeded operations there) and was held in operational reserve, then Operation Saturn would probably have turned into a messy bloodbath for the Soviets and the 6th Army wouldn't have been entirely destroyed.

But that would have required a POD of June/July 1942.

Still afterwards, the Wehrmacht would still have to pull back towards Kharkov as the Soviets would have renewed their offensives in the Spring.

Also, the failure of Operation Saturn wouldn't result in the Russians settling for peace, but it certainly would prolong the war. Long term effects probably would be more subdued since I don't see the Russians settling for a separate peace by 1942-43 unless something really drastic happens. The likely outcome would simply be that in the end, the Allies take more of Germany.
 
I suspect that if the 6th Army made its escape with most of its personnel intact, the Germans would fall back to defensive lines around the Donets. There is no 3rd Battle of Kharkov and it's likely that the Battle of Kursk would be butterflied away.

Also, with the entirety of the 1st and 4th Panzer armies available, they would be able to attack the Soviet spearheads and cause heavy casualties to the Russians. I suspect Spring and Summer of 1943 would result in a fairly static Eastern Front with the Russians pushing slowly towards Smolensk and the Dnieper.
 

sharlin

Banned
You would need a POD of winter 1941 at least to maybe get Uranus to fail. You would need also to change the state of Hitlers military thinking. His not one step back order may well have saved the germans outside the gates of moscow but it doomed them at Stalingrad, that would need to be changed to get him to even allow a break out.

You'd also need someone more competant than the 6th Army's commander who was a very good staff officer but followed orders.
 

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I suspect that if the 6th Army made its escape with most of its personnel intact, the Germans would fall back to defensive lines around the Donets. There is no 3rd Battle of Kharkov and it's likely that the Battle of Kursk would be butterflied away.

Also, with the entirety of the 1st and 4th Panzer armies available, they would be able to attack the Soviet spearheads and cause heavy casualties to the Russians. I suspect Spring and Summer of 1943 would result in a fairly static Eastern Front with the Russians pushing slowly towards Smolensk and the Dnieper.

I would agree with this assessment. German forces wouldn't collapse as easy and would inflict some serious casualties on the Soviet forces. Historically the Soviets managed to keep their numbers up by drafting men from liberated territory, so more casualties and a slower advance could have the effect of bleeding the Soviets without the promise of extra manpower from liberated areas behind Axis lines. Perhaps that would prevent them from conquering Poland during the war?
 
Or maybe no "Soviet mice" 23rd Panzer Division (I think it was this one) is able to control their rodent infestation with enough runners to succesfully contain the Red Army until reinforcements arrive,

This crap again? :rolleyes: This was just a convenient excuse for german less then stelar performance as a result of negligence and overstretch



Eliminate Kletskaya and Serafimovich bridgeheads in summer of 1942. This gives Soviets fewer and worse jumping off points. Maybe do something about Romanian lack of AT weapons (German AT battalions attached to Romanian divisions?).
 
Do not change plans - that much - mid operation: avoid Stalingrad slugfest after initial sucesses, stop the siege and do not send a whole army on tour...

Do not give minor axis forces whole front sections, mix them with german units, use them mostly in the middle (and the italians in the mountains) -this way any sucessful soviet attack against the weakest part of the front would only create a bulge, and a possible kessel, due the spared strong german forces.

But most of all, avoid Stalingrad urban fights - those eat men and equipment like nothing.
 
I would agree with this assessment. German forces wouldn't collapse as easy and would inflict some serious casualties on the Soviet forces. Historically the Soviets managed to keep their numbers up by drafting men from liberated territory, so more casualties and a slower advance could have the effect of bleeding the Soviets without the promise of extra manpower from liberated areas behind Axis lines. Perhaps that would prevent them from conquering Poland during the war?

Let's say Spring 1943 starts with the Soviets forced to attack strong German defensive lines in both the south and center.

The main Soviet thrust would be multi pronged and would center around Smolensk in the North, Kharkov and Orel in the center, and the Donets bend in the South. Overwhelming Soviet numbers would probably force the Germans out of the Donets bend and will retake Rostov, but not before sustaining very high losses. A German counterattack in the Kharkov sector likely results in the Soviet advance getting cut off (more Russian casualties).

With strong armored reserves and no losses in Citadel, AG Center likely holds for the time being.

During the winter, the Soviets will almost certainly retake Kharkov, but will likely be unable to cross the Dnieper until Spring 1944. The forces used in Bagration OTL will likely be diverted south to cross the Dnieper, which is exactly what the Germans expected (more Russian casualties, less success than Bagration.)

At this point (Late Summer 1944), the Eastern Front has gone much worse for the Russians with fewer results to show for it. They Russians probably will only get as far as the Vistula before the war ends.

Divided Poland anyone?
 
Here's a challenge for you: Operation Uranus and Operation Saturn fail about as horribly as Operation Mars (aka The Rzhev Meat Grinder).

The Soviets can retake Stalingrad and push the Germans out of the Caucasus, but the 6th Army will definitely need to escape intact and the Soviets will definitely need to take a large amount of avoidable casualties while making limited gains.

POD is somewhere in August of 1942.

Also, with a failure of Uranus/Saturn, what would the effects on the Soviet and German positions be on the Eastern Front?

Hitler's car spins off the road whilst he is being diven from the wolfschanze. Hitler is pulled from the wreckage alive but unconscious. He is in a coma until early 1943. This allows his Generals to run the battles. They will make fewer mistakes ad will not get so caught up in the fact that the city bears Stalin's name. Ultimately they will still victor themselves to death (strangely the Germans have always been excellent at this) and there will be a Soviet counter attack. However, without the Bohemian Corporal at the helm, the Generals will perform much better and probably save 6th army. With the addition of Paulus's forces, Mansteins backhand blow will be more effective and much bloodier for the Russians.

Short term effects, probably no Kursk salient and thus no Kursk. As to what happens next, if Hitler wakes up expect a tantrum of epic proportions and a big purge of the 'disloyal elements' then its business as usual fucking up the war:rolleyes: If not, then its possible that the Germans take a strategic defence option and wait for the Russians to come to them. Ultimately they will loose, but the cost for the Russians will be horrendous and as has already been said they will not get to Berlin in 45.
 
there was certainly a lack of reserves on that sector, that one Panzer Division and a Roumanian armoured Division and that was caused mainly by over extending into the Caucasus. Even if the Panzer Division had most of its tank strength in running order they could only have delayed the red Army, not stopped them.But that delay would have been enough to bring up more Panzer divisions from elsewhere and give Paulus a chance to redeploy mobile unuiits out of Stalingrad. That could well have avoided 6th Army becoming encircled though the Soviets would have been able to atleast hold on to their last toeholds in Stalingrad itself

The whole Soviet mice thing had to have been an excuse for something else, likely attrition, lack of supplies and a lack of personnel.

In any event, the 6th Army had to be ready to break out when encircled, which it didn't, possibly for lack of supplies or fuel.

Maybe if the 1st Panzer Army didn't cross into the Caucasus (it just impeded operations there) and was held in operational reserve, then Operation Saturn would probably have turned into a messy bloodbath for the Soviets and the 6th Army wouldn't have been entirely destroyed.

But that would have required a POD of June/July 1942.

Still afterwards, the Wehrmacht would still have to pull back towards Kharkov as the Soviets would have renewed their offensives in the Spring.

Also, the failure of Operation Saturn wouldn't result in the Russians settling for peace, but it certainly would prolong the war. Long term effects probably would be more subdued since I don't see the Russians settling for a separate peace by 1942-43 unless something really drastic happens. The likely outcome would simply be that in the end, the Allies take more of Germany.
 
Cetainly it exacerbated the results of negligence and overstretch. A healthy German Panzer Division would have been very helpful in delaying the advance of Uranus long enough to redeploy mobile reserves. With the resources the Germans brought up for Winter Storm a few weeks later plus n unencircled and mobile 6th Army might very well have turned the Red Army offensive into a signal failure.

This crap again? :rolleyes: This was just a convenient excuse for german less then stelar performance as a result of negligence and overstretch



Eliminate Kletskaya and Serafimovich bridgeheads in summer of 1942. This gives Soviets fewer and worse jumping off points. Maybe do something about Romanian lack of AT weapons (German AT battalions attached to Romanian divisions?).
 
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