AHC: Operation Mars breaks through, how plausible is this:

[Snake Featherston]

In reading about Operation Mars, I tend to see two relatively conflicting analyses of it. One would indicate that the offensive was a narrow failure, albeit a very bloody narrow failure, where the Soviet Western and Kalinin Fronts came within a whisker of winning but the USSR reinforced failure more than it should have, and the other is that Operation Mars was simply put an instance of Walter Model entirely outgeneraling his opponents to a point where Operation Mars was never going to do anything but fail (the third POV, that it was just a diversion, can safely be dismissed). So, the challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to find a way that Operation Mars does break through Army Group Center, as well as realistic results of any such breakthrough. In other words, if the Soviets do win, would their casualties actually prevent them from doing more than recapturing Rzhev or would this lead to a further set of offensives in Belarus that actually do more than add to the death toll?

 

[BlairWitch749]

Better camo discipline to start and the multi month build up can't be so bloody obvious

This more than Model's qualities as a general and Zhukov's underestimation of German resistance set the tone for the battle well before it started

Namely that Model knew for 12 weeks before hand that the offensive was coming; right down to the artillery time tables and in that time:

A: had his men build extensive defensive positions especially minefields and mg nests
B: model organized all of his units explicitly to handle the defensive battle with pre-planned rally points and panzer counter attacks already worked out
C: he showed hitler conclusive proof of the coming offensive so inspite of the debacle going on in the south, none of his reserve divisions were taken away
D: Within Model's intel network pwning the plan; they pre-registered all of their artillery on the soviet routes of advance so that no matter how crappy the weather; they would deluge the attacking waves the second they jumped off


The thing is; the Russian's already telegraphed their punch and intentions in August when they failed the first time at Rhzev which is why the 9th army kept the forces it did in the area even before they picked up on the renewed offensive

I think; given that the German force to space ratio's in the sector were better than anywhere along the front, the weather sucked, and there were not enough roads to prevent a general advance from getting canalized and stopped with flank attacks that a real general breakthrough in AGC's vitals is ASB

IF the attack was able to achieve tactical and strategic surprise (borderline ASB since they already attacked in the sector in August) they would have a chance of driving 9th army out of the salinet entirely; however, as it did during operation buffalo; the 9th army's evac of the salient improves german force to space ratios and allows them to put several divisions into reserve to counter any breakthroughs

In the context of driving the 9th army out of the saliant; Zhukov's forces would exhaust themselves and not really be able to exploit; and the success in the south would still appear more tantilizing and draw more reserves... I highly doubt Jupiter goes forward under any realistic circumstance

 

[Snake Featherston]

Which is why I asked how much a breakthrough at Rhzev would actually do. If the Soviets manage it, they'd take enormous casualties in the process and it's more likely to be a hollow victory in a sense of retaking the city but leaving AGC in a tactically stronger position by virtue of no longer having to defend a salient. And this is assuming they manage to resolve the tactical/operational issues in the breakthrough. Which is from what I read not the most plausible WWII POD.

 

[Julian]

The success of the Operation really depends on whether the attack around Belyi is able to make a coherent penetration or not. The Vazuza attack could not succeed on it's own, since as Blair said it would run headfirst into extremely strogn and prepared German defenses. Even under the best weather conditions and effective artillery preparation it would only at best be able to bite a moderately wide and deep salient. But as shown IOTl the Belyi attack, with smashed through a Luftwaffe field division south of the city, could achieve some serious successes. The problem IOTL was that too few resources were committed. A mechanized corps was detatched to attack Veliki Luki, and several more rifle divisions and tank brigaes were used in secondary attacks. So once several understrength reserve panzer divisions arrived the penetration was fairly easily pinched off.