AHC Obama Doesn't Run

Latest PoD, what's the best way for Obama to not run for President in 2008, and focus instead on his Senate career? To my understanding, the best way is through stopping his book tour for Audacity of Hope in late 2006, so maybe just delaying the publication of that book?

While were at it, how does the Presidential election play out differently? I'd guess Hillary wins the Democratic nominee, but does no Obama mean Edwards is her chief rival? I'm also guessing Obama's senate seat would be one of the Dems to survive 2010, meaning he'd still be a well-respected US Senator today; anyone particularly agree or disagree?
 
Obama won't run if Gore runs.
Also, Obama hated the Senate. He would become Governor of Illinois in '10.
 
Latest PoD, what's the best way for Obama to not run for President in 2008, and focus instead on his Senate career? To my understanding, the best way is through stopping his book tour for Audacity of Hope in late 2006, so maybe just delaying the publication of that book?

While were at it, how does the Presidential election play out differently? I'd guess Hillary wins the Democratic nominee, but does no Obama mean Edwards is her chief rival? I'm also guessing Obama's senate seat would be one of the Dems to survive 2010, meaning he'd still be a well-respected US Senator today; anyone particularly agree or disagree?

Senater Obama was only elected in 2004, so maybe he simply decides not to run, believing he won't gain traction in the primaries.

I agree that Hilary probably wins the nomination (and the election). Not sure who her running mate will be though-maybe she chooses Obama?
 
Not sure who her running mate will be though-maybe she chooses Obama?

I'd rather for the sake of this thread that Obama serves at least one full Senate term.

Also, Obama hated the Senate. He would become Governor of Illinois in '10.

There is the matter of Blagoevich -- with Obama's seat not opening up, that's one less charge for the incumbent governor, which could well affect when he gets officially charged...
 
Maybe Kerry decides not to have him do the keynote speech at the 2004 DNC? That was huge booster for Obama's career, and put him in the national spotlight. Without Obama, Hillary wins the nomination pretty handily, and I think wins the election without too much trouble. Obama might then move from the Senate to run for Governor. If Obama is a successful governor, he could be a shoe-in for the Democratic nomination in 2016, if Hillary doesn't pick an ambitious VP.
 
Hillary might choose Bayh, Strickland or Shaheen. Game Change indicates that she favored Strickland, but that leaves both of them wide open to the charge of inexperience, regardless of whether McCain or Romney is the nominee. I'd expect ITTL that the GOP VP is Pawlenty.
 
I'd rather for the sake of this thread that Obama serves at least one full Senate term.

There is the matter of Blagoevich -- with Obama's seat not opening up, that's one less charge for the incumbent governor, which could well affect when he gets officially charged...
If Blagojevich stays, Obama defeats Pat Quinn from the primary. Blagojevich probably supports Obama, but Obama could distance himself from Blagojevich.
Obama would defeat Pat Quinn in the primary even if Quinn was the incumbent like OTL. Quinn barely won the primary IOTL - 50.4% vs. 49.5%.
 
Thanks for the feedback; one more thing strikes me -- without Obama competing for liberal votes, could Hillary rely less on the likes of Mark Penn and be a more liberal candidate (and thus a more liberal President than in other ATLs where she beats Obama)?
 
Thanks for the feedback; one more thing strikes me -- without Obama competing for liberal votes, could Hillary rely less on the likes of Mark Penn and be a more liberal candidate (and thus a more liberal President than in other ATLs where she beats Obama)?

Uhh, no. Part of her strategy was striking a moderate tone to shield her very liberal profile and voting record. Edwards planned to run as a populist against the "moderate" Hillary. If Hillary runs on her voting record her negatives will spike again and the entire strategy which had been governing her political career since 2000 is shot.
 
Maybe Kerry decides not to have him do the keynote speech at the 2004 DNC? That was huge booster for Obama's career, and put him in the national spotlight. Without Obama, Hillary wins the nomination pretty handily, and I think wins the election without too much trouble. Obama might then move from the Senate to run for Governor. If Obama is a successful governor, he could be a shoe-in for the Democratic nomination in 2016, if Hillary doesn't pick an ambitious VP.
Had the Illinois Republicans not picked Alan Keyes, or had Jack Ryan not wanted to swap wives (or if Jeri Ryan had been willing to...), Obama would have likely not run for the White House, as the race would have been much closer.

Uhh, no. Part of her strategy was striking a moderate tone to shield her very liberal profile and voting record. Edwards planned to run as a populist against the "moderate" Hillary. If Hillary runs on her voting record her negatives will spike again and the entire strategy which had been governing her political career since 2000 is shot.
Big problem. This is the Hillary Clinton who favored Bill Clinton's rightward shift with the hope "that our friends would understand." This is also the Hillary Clinton who was on the Intelligence Committee and voted to go into Iraq, despite the evidence. Progressives did not like Hillary, and they much prefered single payer to Hillarycare.

^^Ah; so no chance Hillary's presidency* TTL would be as (or more) progressive as Obama's OTL?

*first two years, anyway
It might be less... Now, Edwards or Richardson* might be different...

* I do have a TL where Richardson takes the WH, with Obama as his Veep. It requires quite a few butterflies, beginning with a movie being made that wasn't in OTL. (BTW, any semi-prominent Illinois Republican Hispanics in 2004?)
 
Hillary might choose Bayh, Strickland or Shaheen. Game Change indicates that she favored Strickland, but that leaves both of them wide open to the charge of inexperience, regardless of whether McCain or Romney is the nominee. I'd expect ITTL that the GOP VP is Pawlenty.

Probably only if Romney is the nominee. McCain originally wanted Joe Lieberman and lobbied hard to set it up, but Karl Rove said no, threatening to force the far-right wing of the party to walk out of the convention. McCain wanted a surprise for his VP, and the only two left on the list were Palin and Pawlenty. McCain went with Palin for shock value. So in doing this, you'd have to either push Lieberman through the convention or have Romney be the nominee to not pick Palin.
 
During the 2006 campaign, when he was traveling around the country campaigning for various candidates, he gets caught on an open mike talking about bitter people "clinging to guns and religion". Alternative: the Clinton oppo department has its act together and the Rev. Wright story breaks in the fall of 2007, before Iowa and before his speech in November at the Jefferson-Jackson dinner that really started his momentum there. Third alternative: Kerry picks someone else to do the keynote at the DNC in 2004.
 
Obama ran for a number of reasons that have already been mentioned here. One that hasn't was the immense pressure he received from moderate Democrats in the Senate. From Harry Reid to Kent Conrad to even Ben Nelson, moderates did not want to see Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket. If there is less pressure from Senate Dems (including the entire leadership team) than Obama might not run.
 
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