AHC: Novgorodian Finland

With the latest possible PoD, how can: (a) Novgorod gain control of Finland; and (b) avoid being absorbed (by Moscow, etc)? And with that, how is the subsequent history of the Rus, Scandanavia, and Eastern Europe affected?
 
You might be able to use a Tamerleng POD; he never attacks the Golden Horde, and thus it stays strong and unitary enough to smash Moscow's bid for independence. If Moscow is devastated enough, you might see the Tver-Moscow struggle last longer, with Tver uniting eastern Rus in the 1500s or so.
 
In the second quarter of the 15th century, you could still screw Muscovy over with a worse Muscovite Civil War, and especially one ending in local nobles reasserting their privileges at the detriment of the central authority and the grand-princely court. Have all those political thinkers who populated the Muscovite court move over to Novgorod and set Novgorod on a course of expansion; they certainly had the numbers and the economic potential to pull a Muscovy.

They were traditional allies of the Hanseatic towns, so have Novgorod participate in the Danish-Hanseatic Wars and wrestle control over the Southern Finnish coast from Kalmar King Erik.
 
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So there's a small matter of internal organisation, to wit: 1. Novgorod's hinterlands were given over to tax farmers from Novgorodian nobility, which hardly encouraged permanent development like Sweden did in Finland and 2. Novgorod's army was raised ah-hoc every time they went to war; they only had the Archbishop's guard otherwise in terms of a permanent military force. It's fine for short campaigns, but it makes occupation of anywhere far away quite difficult.

On the other hand, the Novgorodians did try to expand permanently westwards by building fortresses. With some changes in military fortunes, who knows? It might be that they'll encastellate enough that Sweden simply cannot dislodge them anymore.
 
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